一个未来学家预测“百搭牌”事件

武夷山

著名未来学家、美国阿灵顿研究所创始人兼所长John L. Peterson在《未来学家》杂志2009年5／6月号撰文，How “Wild Cards” May Reshape Our Future（“百搭牌”会如何重新型范未来？）。所谓“百搭牌”本来是指可以由持牌人随意决定牌值、代替任何其它牌的牌张。在未来学领域，百搭牌则指的是发生概率低、但一旦发生则影响力很大的事件。这个概念与Nassim Nicholas Taleb的“黑天鹅”很像，但是用于不同的场合。

› Visit Amazon's John L. Petersen Page

Find all the books, read about the author, and m

See search results for this author

Are you an author? Learn about Author Central

在这期杂志中，他又提出了新的百搭牌未来场景：

1、一批人将倡导精神性范式转变。这些人多标榜合作、互相信赖和完整性（oneness）。

2、地球迅速变冷。

3、零点能（zero point energy）。零点能的意义堪比火的控制利用。

4、克隆人。

5、证实外星智慧的存在。

   John L. Peterson于2010年10月首次访华，赴上海参加了第三届国际乐活（LOHAS）论坛， 发表了题为《如何为2012年的巨变做准备》的演讲。对其演讲内容感兴趣的可见（http://news.hexun.com/2010-10-15/125140212.html）。

《新科学家》的文章全文如下：

How “Wild Cards” May Reshape Our Future

Good or bad, some wild cards may change not only the way we live, but also the way we think about ourselves as human beings.

By John L. Petersen

A few of the wild card scenarios I examined 10 years ago for my 1999 book, Out of the Blue, no longer appear so wild: a stock-market crash, ice cap breaks up, virtual reality moves information instead of people, terrorism swamps government defenses. Other scenarios have not been realized but remain highly plausible possibilities: a major information systems disruption, a new Chernobyl, achievement of room-temperature superconductivity, and the politico-economic unraveling of Africa.

Now, a decade later, our society has grown even more complex and the possible new scenarios are even a bit more profound. Because they are so potentially big, the approaches for dealing with surprises need to be ever more agile, yet often they are not. To accept the idea that surprises are simply surprises and cannot be dealt with in advance, however, is to presume that we can’t make a difference—which is not the truth. We, and the future, deserve better.

Here are a few wild cards that could be on our horizon.

Spiritual Paradigm Shift Sweeps the World

Growing numbers of groups dedicated to a fundamental shift in the way humans perceive themselves are popping up around the planet. Most characterize themselves around the ideas of cooperation, interdependency, and oneness. Individuals and groups empowered primarily by the Internet are rapidly developing networks, driving a movement within the business, government, and education sectors that reflects this growing complexity of connections and dependency.

The wild card is the possibility that this changing perception could accelerate forward, facilitated by a still-under-the-radar spiritual movement that mirrors the trends in other sectors but is growing much faster and is potentially much more powerful. In addition to a number of other organizations that embrace the same underlying principles, an organization in India, Oneness University, is emblematic of this possibility. Oneness—as defined in this context—is the internalization of the perspective that all life is not only connected to, but an integral part of, the whole of reality. Everything is part of everything else, and in particular, every person is part of everyone else.

Science Is Wrong—It’s Rapid Cooling

The conventional wisdom within the scientific community suggests that the earth is warming rapidly and humans are a major cause of the warming. Climate models project only warmer temperatures. But a look into the basis for the underlying theory now suggests that, historically, warming did not follow increases in carbon dioxide; rather, it may well be that a warming earth released more CO₂. The explanation may be that warming seawater can keep a smaller amount of CO₂ in solution and, as the oceans warm, more CO₂ is released.

Furthermore, new research suggests that the major terrestrial driver of global climate patterns may be wind over the oceans. Small changes in wind patterns produce highly leveraged impacts in the way the atmospheric system reacts. A significant increase in terrestrial volcanoes (and perhaps undersea ones) in the last decade could be changing the temperature distribution of the oceans and hence the winds. These planetary shifts, coupled with clear, unusual solar behavior (all of the planets near us are warming) and the solar system entering a galactic area of unfamiliar energetic, raise the possibility that all of our unusual weather is the product of much larger forces than the scientific community is considering.

The wild card is the distinct possibility that this cycle presages a period of rapid cooling, producing a rapid, mini ice age starting in the next few years. This would raise havoc with agriculture and economies and certainly spill over into social disruption.

New Energy Discovery Comparable to the Control of Fire

The existence of Zero Point Energy (ZPE)—the theoretical underlying energy field out of which emerges everything that exists—has been demonstrated with the experimental measurement of the long-range repulsive forces of the Casimir Effect, according to a recent article in the science journal Nature (January 2009). Long presumed to exist by a small, forward-looking segment of the quantum physics community, this experiment sets the stage for a revolution in energy that will rival the discovery of fire.

When ZPE conversion technology is engineered to be able to produce usable amounts of heat or electricity, then the whole world changes, rapidly. Since every human endeavor depends upon energy in some way, and the pressure to find alternatives to fossil fuels is very great, the disruption could be extraordinary. Researchers would race to build increasingly effective ways of generating and applying electricity to existing requirements in the areas of transportation, large and small-scale power generation, interior heating, etc. Meanwhile, existing fossil fuel power plants, for example, tethered to long-term bond financing obligations and political constraints, could find it very hard to quickly adapt to a dramatic new production capability.

Cloned Humans Threaten Everything

The fight over stem-cell research has been instructive. New scientific capabilities run directly into the brick wall of existing ethical, legal, and value systems. Breakthrough approaches to saving the lives of individuals thought to be without hope are held up because of perceived ethical issues (which are the product of a past that didn’t include the new possibility). In a short time it is shown that stem cells can be made out of small amounts of fingernails—not the earlier embryos—and suddenly, the original ethical issue yields to new issues about the appropriate use of these new stem cells.

Now consider the area of cloning. We have cloned horses, sheep, dogs, cats, and perhaps a number of other forms of advanced life, and some researchers are working on human cloning. When it is first publicly acknowledged that a human has been cloned, picture the outcry that will arise from traditional groups who are unable to assimilate this new ability into their value systems. Science will not stop, and social systems will be very slow to adapt. The result: dramatic conflict and self-searching.

Intelligent Alien Life Confirmed

In this scenario, the Obama administration manifests a policy of openness in government by making the historic decision to declassify and release information on 40 years of reports dealing with alien species who have visited this planet and interacted with humans.

The reports satisfy most scientists that alien beings have in fact visited the Earth, so big questions must be addressed: How did the aliens get here, and what might we learn about the energy technology that allowed them to travel these distances? What have they told us about their understanding of things like God and where we came from? What else is going on in our solar system that they know about, let alone our galaxy? The list is very long, and such questions are very disconcerting to many established institutions (like religions) who find the information at great odds to what they have been promoting. Science funding rapidly swings into new directions.

This wild card would force humanity to redefine itself in dramatic new terms and to enter a new era unparalleled in human history.

About the Author

John L. Petersen is the founder and president of The Arlington Institute and a member of the World Future Society’s Global Advisory Council. He is author of Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (Madison Books, 1999) and A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (Fulcrum Publishing, 2008), which was reviewed in the November-December 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST. His address is The Arlington Institute, 192 Fairfax Street, Berkeley Springs, West Virginia 25411. Web site www.arlingtoninstitute.org .