第二个问题是:增税(特别是对富人增税)会影响经济发展吗?加税对于经济有两个负作用。一个是降低了劳动的真正报酬,从而降低了人们劳动的意愿。当然大多数人不会因为税高了就不工作,但有些人还是有选择的,如有些女性有当家庭妇女和出去工作的选择,有些职业(如律师,销售,企业高管等)也可以改变自己对工作的投入换取不同的收入水平。另一个作用是改变积蓄和投资的意愿,从而影响经济和就业市场的规模。虽然投资决定大多来自于企业,但美国超过一半的非政府雇员就业的公司是把企业收入通过个人所得税表报税的(所谓flow-through企业),所以个人收入税率会影响到企业投资决定。但问题是,这些效果怎样定量计算?最近对于奥巴马提出的增税计划,最近有两个估计。一个是顾问公司Earnst and Young的【37】,另一个是CBO的【38】。这两个报告的研究对象不尽相同所以结论也无从比较。但大致来说,加税对于GDP增长率和失业率的影响都有限。这两个报告都没有详细介绍其研究方法,但看来都是基于历史数据的某种模型化。这些模型是否适用于目前的经济情况也是个问题。所以说,“对富人加税一定会严重影响经济发展”这个说法并未得到事实证明。
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