基于进退过程 (The advance-retreat course, ARC), 一种环境压力下的经济增长模型，本文建立了政策环境压力下的双边进出口贸易增长模型, 讨论了产品, 服务及总进出口的均衡特征, 分析了创新增长下进出口的极限平衡, 给出了进出口贸易平衡的政策控制方法, 设计了推动进出口增长和实现双边贸易平衡的策略. 本文研究发现: 进出口增长的长期发展趋势是, 产品进出口逐渐减少, 服务进出口逐渐增加. 创新含量越来越高的服务, 终将成为国际进出口贸易的核心内容. 实证分析结果表明, 美国的进出口的结构比中国更合理, 中国服务的进出口有着巨大的增长空间, 并指出了美国减少中美双边贸易逆差和中国实现进出口平衡的政策路径.

Based on the advance-retreat course   (ARC) model - a growth model under environmental pressure, this paper builds   a bilateral import and export trade growth model under environmental   pressure. By using the model, the paper analyzes the impacts of innovation on   import and export growth, presents a method for computing the optimal levels   of imports and exports, derives the limit values of imports and exports, and   obtains the limit equilibrium between exports and imports. Finally, a   strategy for promoting import and export growth and achieving a bilateral   trade balance according to the limit equilibrium is designed. The findings   are the following: (i) innovation growth will gradually reduce goods import   and export, and services import and export will increase, (ii) the U.S.   import–export structure is more reasonable than that of China, and (iii)   there is big room for services import and export growth for China.