博文
中国“被报告”
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不知为什么有些国人比较迷信“兰德公司”（Rand Corporation）。所以就有人喜欢编造“兰德报告”行骗。而上当者不在少数。90年代有要在台海危机中出动航母编队打击中国的所谓“兰德报告”。笔者曾批驳过。后来《Dire Strait?》[1]出版，谣言不攻自破。
最近又有一份关于中国的“兰德报告”在网上被一再转载[2]。这次Rand反应比较快，已经在其网站上声明：（http://www.rand.org/hot_topics/china/ ）
A report on the Web site dwnews.com incorrectly attributes negative comments about the Chinese people and Chinese traditions to a report about the Chinese economy allegedly prepared by the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy. No such comments exist in any report prepared by RAND researchers and comments in the article do not accurately represent the views of RAND scholars. Part of the dwnews.com article appears to be based on testimony given in 2005 that can be found here: http://www.rand.org/ pubs/testimonies/CT244/. We have asked the Web site to correct its error.
这个假“兰德报告”中的第一段及第二段的前几句基本还是来自上面 News Advisory 中提到的2005年5月William H. Overholt 在U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission的“证言”（Testimony）[3]:
:
如果20世纪的中国是一个富裕和统一的国家，我们会有一个完全不同的第一次世界大战，我们就不会有第二次世界大战而是第二次欧洲大战。中国 能够阻止日本侵略或者打败日本。美国在这些冲突上的花费从根本意义上会减少很多，因为珍珠港事件不会发生。我们和整个世界，更不用说10亿中国人，一个多世纪以来，已经为中国的弱小付出了惨重的代价。世界需要一个健康的中国。
中国的需求对日本走出衰退起到了促进作用。日本状况给世界经济带来了风险。关于这一点，怎么说都不夸张。日本巨额的债务会产生多米诺骨牌效应，逐渐波及到全世界。在中国有力的帮助下，危险似乎已经过去。
第三段则被“翻译”得很糟糕。原文：
A more serious policy problem is hyper-competition created by cheap financing in China. The irrationalities of the Chinese financial system mean that in key sectors like steel China builds too many factories, and props up too many moribund companies, causing massive overcapacity. In recent years Chinese financial vagaries have led to excessive construction and huge demand for steel, aluminum, cement and others. For a while this has buoyed the global steel industry, including ours. But it has also led to construction of so many steel factories in China that soon China will have half of all world capacity. That means overproduction and eventually a steel price bust.
被“翻译”成：
中国金融体系的不合理意味著中国建造了垂死企业，导致巨大的生产力过剩。近些年来，中国财政政策上的反复无常导致过度建造，对铁、铝、水泥 和其他原材料产生了巨大的需求。日本人和现在的中国人看上去似乎会买下世界上所有的东西，但是当你看到他们的财政状况的潜在问题时，你会发现一个黑洞。日 本人在90年代陷入了这样一个黑洞，至今还在努力地爬出来。中国人很多年后仍将会为目前这种无节制的狂热的购买行为感到心痛。
第四段把：
In the medium term China faces daunting challenges. Its banks are the worst in the world that we know about. In each generation a population about the size of the United States will move from China’s countryside to its cities. Each year 12-13 million new workers join the work force. The impact of productivity on employment in manufacturing is much more severe than in our country. All these people need jobs. For a considerable period China’s high growth can be sustained, but only through heroic reform measures by China’s leaders. If somehow China powers through these problems, by 2020 its aging population will have the worst ratio of workers to non-workers of any population in the world, including Japan’s. That is to say, without some miraculous new policies the Chinese economy may well hit a wall in that period. In 2020, they will still be a very poor country by our standards. Even if their success continues until then, they will not be taking over the world.
翻译成：
目前，中国面临著巨大的挑战。中国的银行是我们所知道的世界上最糟糕的银行。中国每一代，都有相当于美国规模的人口从农村涌入城市。每年，都有1200- 1300万新工人加入就业大军。在制造业，生产力对就业的影响比我们国家要严重得多。到2020年，中国人口老龄化会使工作人口与不工作人口的比率成为世界上最糟糕的，比日本更甚。如果没有特效的新政策的话，中国的经济在那个时期就会狠狠地撞墙。到2020年，以我们的标准来看，它会是一个非常穷的国家。
尽管做了很多手脚，比如“well”被翻译成“狠狠地”、“will still be”被翻译成“会是”，但基本上还算得上是翻译。
可是后面大量对中国人民、中国传统非常负面（甚至恶毒）的描述内容则完全是无中生有。（或者可能是移花接木？但是笔者目前没有找到出处。）时间也从2005年“乾坤大挪移”到2009年。
分析一下花了这么多心思编造这样一份“兰德报告”的人的心理，应该是一件很有趣的事情。
[1] David A. Shlapak, David T. Orletsky, and Barry A. Wilson: Dire Strait? Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy, RAND, 2000
（http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1217.pdf）
[2] 匿名：《中国现状分析报告》兰德公司亚太政策中心
（比如可以在这里找到：http://www.oursteps.com.au/ss/?action-viewthread-tid-169777）
[3] William H. Overholt, China and Globalization, Testimony present to U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, May 19, 2005
（http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/2005/RAND_CT244.pdf）
https://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-39346-289772.html
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