it is divided into 7 parts, 1-introduction, 2-energy demand modeling issues from developing countries' perspecive, 3-understanding energy demand, 4-energy demand modeling in practive, 5-features of specific energy demand forecasting models, 6-policy implications for developing countries, 7-concluding remarks. the study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models.

 

5.25 上午：

part 3中3.1 economic foundation of energy demand. 由于不同产业部门的能源需求驱动力不同，所以分household, industry and commercial, transport 3个部门进行讨论。household部门受到consumers' utility maximization priciples 效用最大化的限制；工业和商业要使产品成本最小化。

3.2 demand forecasting models。主要介绍两种：simple approaches and sophisticated approaches. simple法是利用趋势分析来进行预测，优点是简单；缺点是假设条件是主观拟定，无法进行长期预测。

sophisticated 法可以分为top-down and bottom-up models, 还可以根据建模理论分为economic model, engineering-economy model (or end-use model), hybrid model. 此外还有一些的方法：system dynamics model, scenario approach, decomposition model, process model, input-output model, artificial neural networks（人工神经网络）.

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先去上课，下午继续sophisticated法。 心里要有底，然后竭尽全力去做好。模型还是得思考，多总结多思考。我一定可以弄出来的。

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下午迷迷瞪瞪的，后来知道妈妈今天生日，遂给自己特赦，17：30左右回家电话做饭玩。今天周三怎么有点懈怠了？ no vacation till paper published.