Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

John P. A. Ioannidis

为什么大多数已发表的研究结果都是错误的

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False | PLOS Medicine

【新提醒】科学网—[转载]为什么大多是期刊论文是错的--包括物理学科 （科技英文听力资料，英汉对照） - 刘跃的博文 (sciencenet.cn)

pmed.0020124.pdf

Summary

There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.

总结

人们越来越担心目前发表的大多数研究结果都是错误的。一项研究的结论正确与否的概率取决于研究的能力和偏见、对同一问题的其它研究的数量，重要的是，还取决于每个科学领域的所有研究中数据与结论之间是否真实存在关联或毫无关系的比例。在这个框架下，当一个领域的研究采用统计规模较小时、当有效应的统计规模较小时、当存在更多随机变量和更少的已经被验证了的预选关系时、当设计、定义、结果和分析模式方面有很大的不确定性时、当存在更大的经济和其它利益带来偏见时、以及当更多的团队为了追求统计意义、不太可能确保研究结论正确。模拟表明，对于大多数研究设计和设置，决定了研究结果是错的而不是对的。此外，对于当前的许多科学领域来说，声称的研究结果往往只是对流行主流偏见的衡量。在这篇文章中，我讨论了这些问题对研究的进行和解释的影响。

Published research findings are sometimes refuted by subsequent evidence, with ensuing confusion and disappointment. Refutation and controversy is seen across the range of research designs, from clinical trials and traditional epidemiological studies [1–3] to the most modern molecular research [4,5]. There is increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims [6–8]. However, this should not be surprising. It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false. Here I will examine the key factors that influence this problem and some corollaries thereof.

发表的研究结果有常会被随后的证据所推翻，随之而来的是困惑和失望。从临床试验和传统流行病学研究[1-3]到最现代的分子研究[4，5]，各种研究设计都有争议和否定。人们越来越担心，在现代研究中，大多数甚至绝大多数已发表的研究都是虚假的发现 [6-8]。然而，这并不奇怪。可以证明，大多数研究结果都是错误的。在这里，我将研究影响这个问题的关键因素及其一些推论。

Modeling the Framework for False Positive Findings

为虚假发现设计的建模框架

不能重现的实验 …

It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false.

可以证明，大多数研究发现都不能成立。

英汉对照 （机器翻译）

pmed.0020124-dual-translated.pdf