近期Science报道西班牙地中海气候区域植被特征在气候变暖情形下将大幅改变，如在西班牙的南部将会演变成大面积荒漠、落叶森林也会消失，相关文章“Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems”已于近期发表。

相关介绍：http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/study-predicts-deserts-in-spain-if-global-warming-continues-1.3134427

作者比较了4种气候变化模式发现，只有1.5°C的情形植被变率才在可接受的范围，2°C的变暖将是灾难性的，这就是气候敏感区域 - 地中海对巴黎气候会议设定2°C以内的案例解释。

Abstract

The United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies.