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(For new reader and those who request 好友请求, please read my 公告栏 first).
Most people have heard of the famous Parkinson's Law (actually it is his first law) which states that "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion". However very few are aware of the other two laws. The third law says, "Decay begins when the marble palace is completed". Translated into Chinese idiom -盛 极 必 衰
If you search on amazon.com about the rise and fall of empires, you get over 50 books with such titles several of which deal with the USA. There is very little dispute that the period 1950-2000 represents the AMERICAN HALF CENTURY. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, America has certainly reached its zenith. The question then is, "does Parkinson's third law apply to the US from here on?".
Here are my own observations:
1. Luxury becomes a necessity once your have it. Many things Americans cannot do without are luxuries elsewhere. Most Americans do not have a good idea how the rest of the world live. We on the average consume 50 times more resources per person than non-Americans. We are addicted to oil with the results that we actually are financing BOTH sides on the war on terror. Consumers in rest of the world pay 2 or 3 times for gasoline than Americans. Yet no US politician dares to speak about raising taxes or price on gasoline. 3600 American soldier have died in Iraq in four years, and the public is clamoring to stop the war. Yet 40,000 Americans are killed every year by automobile accidents and no one raises a hoot about it. The current US administration does not seem to be too concerned with global climate change. This is merely reflecting the majority opinion of the American public.
2. The April 1, 2007 New York Times Magazine had an article on "RE-EDUCATION" by Ann Hubert who uses the example of the "Harvard girl" (a Chinese sophomore student at Harvard) to contrast the educational philosophies of the US and modern China - what are good in each system and what changes are taking place in Chinese K-12 education. It was a very good article. However, what was missed by the author but nevertheless unintentionally came through was the attitude of care of Chinese parents towards their children. I don't mean the average American parents do not love their children. They choose the best school district to live in, participate in and support parent-teacher conferences. But to most of them, their children are individuals to be raised and praised. If they go wrong, it is the fault of the society and the system not the individual. Rigorous study and hard homework are not emphasized. On the other hand, I don't have to tell my Chinese reader how parents regard homework and course of study of their children. Once more than 30 years ago when oversea telephone calls are expensive and infrequently used, a father from Taiwan called me long distance to discuss the appropriateness and content of a particular course his son is taking in graduate school at Harvard. Thus, American school age children consistently do very poorly in International Mathematic and Science competition. Without the large number of foreign students in American universities, the scientific preeminence of the US will be in serious jeopardy. The American idiom of "no pain, no gain" applies here.
3. Yet America got where she is today by establishing a free people, a free marketplace, and a society that really tolerates just about every custom and way of life that exists or ever has existed on this planet and encourages its citizens to be risk takers with the promise of potentially huge financial rewards for their efforts. It is still the land of opportunity in the eyes of the world. True, the US still has racial problems and covert discrimination exists. But I always say that as a minority, I'd not choose to live anywhere in the world except America. Immigration is one bright spot in American history. However, because of 9/11 and illegals from Mexico, it is under attack.
4. During the 80's when Japanese manufacturing overwhelmed America. Doomsayer predicted the decline of the US. But she somehow re-invented herself , developed the Internet and information technology, and transformed herself into a booming service economy of the 90's and the 21st century. However, with globalization and the challenges of China, India, and Singapore, can she do it again?
To rise further or to fall, that is the question facing America. History is not optimistic in its answer. I selfishly feel that I am lucky that I won't be there to experience it one way or the other.
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