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Hansen教父2000年还认为非CO2因素主导全球变暖

已有 3703 次阅读 2012-6-4 00:32 |个人分类:全球变暖|系统分类:博客资讯| 全球变暖, 碳排放, Hansen

(不好意思,刚才虚惊了一场。)

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario
James Hansen*, Makiko Sato*, Reto Ruedy*, Andrew Lacis*, and Valdar Oinas*§+ Author Affiliations *National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, and §Center for Environmental Prediction, Rutgers University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025  Contributed by James Hansen

Abstract  

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

【鸣谢:Watts Up With That 




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