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认知偏误维基列表
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1本文主体来自http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases 贡献者包括MartinPoulter、Taak、Cat Cubed、Everything
counts、Pgreenfinch等网友，中文部分由我撰写暂认为属于科学网blog中原创文章，有异议请与我联系，yufree囧foxmail.com；
3本文本来打算直接翻译提交到维基百科，但翻译的一段后发现自己水平太次，很多看不懂所以就私下看看就可以了；
4希望专业人士协助翻译相关条目，中文条目翻译率10%左右且有条目在网络检索中出现解释冲突；
5就该列表本身而言，存在较严重概念重复，但重复去看有助于强化记忆所以当前并不进一步整合条目；
6为方便读者深入了解，本文保留英文，但值得声明的是有些翻译来自其英文条目而不是原文，有些是我自己的理解，而有些则是意译，不宜作为严谨的作品发布与使用；
7本文会更新，更新内容会出现在文末，当前版本1.0。
认知偏误
Decision-making, belief and behavioral biases决策 信仰与行为偏误
- Ambiguity effect – 人们倾向于信息量更大的选择项，避免选择未知的选择项the tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem "unknown."[4]
- Anchoring – 做决定时过分依赖某一特定标准或原则 而这些标准或原则可能并不可靠 如迷信星座the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions (also called "insufficient adjustment").
- Attentional Bias – 做决定时受制于环境或情绪，忽略一些相关信息而更关注某些特定信息the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in one's environment to preferentially draw and hold attention and to neglect relevant data when making judgments of a correlation or association.
- Availability heuristic – 作评价时更多依赖记忆中记住的信息而不是全部信息estimating what is more likely by what is more available in memory, which is biased toward vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples.
- Availability cascade – 某一信念不断重复确认后会加强a self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").
- Backfire effect – 没看明白 大概是事后诸葛亮的心态when people react to disconfirming evidence by strengthening their beliefs[5]
- Bandwagon effect – 从众效应 不解释the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior.
- Base rate neglect or Base rate fallacy –人们判断时会忽视基本统计概率 不懂的话随意找本概率的书看关于贝叶斯统计的例题 the tendency to base judgments on specifics, ignoring general statistical information.[6]
- Belief bias – 因果倒置 因为信结论所以信其推理过程 也就是信仰偏误an effect where someone's evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by the believability of the conclusion.[7]
- Bias blind spot – 认为自己比别人偏误少 更公正the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people.[8]
- Choice-supportive bias – 认为自己已作出的选择是更好的而事实上却可能忽略不利的地方 算是自我安慰吧the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were.[9]
- Clustering illusion – 聚类幻想 人们经常看到不存在的规律 跟个人经历有关the tendency to see patterns where actually none exist. Also referred to as "patternicity" by author Michael Shermer.
- Confirmation bias – 确认偏误 忽视事实去支持自己的成见 the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.[10]
- Congruence bias – 唯一的相信直接证明假说的实验而忽视间接地证明或是证明其他假说的可能the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses.
- Conjunction fallacy –认为特殊情况比一般情况更可能发生 the tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.[11]
- Conservatism or Regressive Bias – 低估高可能性高估低可能性 过于保守中庸 忽视证据tendency to underestimate high values and high likelihoods/probabilities/frequencies and overestimate low ones. Based on the observed evidence, estimates are not extreme enough[12][13]
- Contrast effect – 对比效应 对比会加强原有效果the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared with a recently observed contrasting object.[14]
- Denomination effect – 面额效应 相对大面额小面额的等量的钱消费更快the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills).[15]
- Distinction bias –区分偏误 两个东西作为备选项一起考虑时比单独考虑区别更大 the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.[16]
- Empathy gap – 低估内在影响 强调外部影响 也就是身在福中不知福 the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others.
- Endowment effect – 买东西希望便宜卖东西希望贵 the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.[17]
- Exaggerated expectation – 世界不是那么戏剧化 理想很热血 现实很平淡 based on the estimates, real-world evidence turns out to be less extreme than our expectations (conditionally inverse of the conservatism bias).[18]
- Experimenter's or Expectation bias – 试验偏误 参照之前写的《推理的迷宫》读书笔记 有详细叙述 the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.[19]
- Focusing effect – 聚焦效应 对某事物某一方面过于关注导致错误的预期 前面有些效应类似 the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.[20]
- Forward Bias – 模型都是基于已有数据建立的 很难预测未知the tendency to create models based on past data which are validated only against that past data.
- Framing effect – 同一个信息不同的呈现方式会有不同的效果 drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented.
- Frequency illusion – 眼球效应 突然感觉某一事物原来没有注意到 现在到处都是了 the illusion in which a word, a name or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly appears "everywhere" with improbable frequency (see also recency illusion). Sometimes called "The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon".
- Gambler's fallacy – 赌徒谬误 统计规律不适用于个体 有些已经发生的事不会影响将要发生的事 如掷硬币 the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the Law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads."
- Hard-easy effect – 基于任务的设定难度信心也不一样 例如有些游戏的hard模式其实与normal模式无异 Based on a specific level of task difficulty, the confidence in judgments is too conservative and not extreme enough[21][22][23]
- Hindsight bias – 事后诸葛 认为某事结果与预期一样 实际可能是语焉不详 sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable[24] at the time those events happened.(sometimes phrased as "Hindsight is 20/20")
- Hostile media effect – 简单说就是意识形态偏见 认为敌人做的一定是对自己不利的 the tendency to see a media report as being biased due to one's own strong partisan views.
- Hyperbolic discounting – 人们更关注眼前利益而不是长远利益 the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.[25]
- Illusion of control – 人们容易高估自己的控制力 the tendency to overestimate one's degree of influence over other external events.[26]
- Illusory correlation – 把毫不相干的两件事看作有密切关系 inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events.[27][28]
- Impact bias – 人们往往会高估了情绪的影响力 例如人们从悲痛中恢复的要比预计得快 the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.[29]
- Information bias – 人们往往更多的信息对行动更有帮助而事实上没效果 the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.[30]
- Irrational escalation – 增加投资时关注已有业绩而不关注当前更有价值的信息 the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong.
- Just-world hypothesis – 宿命论 认为自己就该是这样 the tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just, causing them to rationalize an otherwise inexplicable injustice as deserved by the victim(s).
- Loss aversion – 同样概率的事人们往往更看重损失而不是获得 "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it".[31] (see also Sunk cost effects and Endowment effect).
- Mere exposure effect – 人们对于熟悉的事更优先选择 the tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them.[32]
- Money illusion – 人们倾向于认可货币的名义价值而不是实际购买力 通胀中物价变化缓慢 the tendency to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.[33]
- Moral credential effect – 道德会导致无意识的偏见 the tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice.
- Negativity bias – 人们往往更看重事物的负面影响 the tendency to pay more attention and give more weight to negative than positive experiences or other kinds of information.
- Neglect of probability – 做决定时人们会忽略掉一些可能性 the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.[34]
- Normalcy bias – 对突如其来的灾难人们更难接受 更想恢复原状 the refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.
- Observer-expectancy effect – 观察者期望 同实验偏误 when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see also subject-expectancy effect).
- Omission bias – 认为错误的行为要比不作为要更糟糕 the tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).[35]
- Optimism bias – 乐观偏见 过分相信事情会向好的一方面发展 the tendency to be over-optimistic, overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes (see also wishful thinking, optimism bias, valence effect,positive outcome bias).[36][37]
- Ostrich effect – 鸵鸟效应 无视自己的不利条件 ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.
- Outcome bias – 评价决定好坏往往是根据结果判断而不是做决定时的情况 the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
- Overconfidence effect – 对于回答问题的答案自己往往过度自信 excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.[38][39][40]
- Pareidolia – 将随机的事看做有规律可循的幻觉 a vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) is perceived as significant, e.g., seeing images of animals or faces in clouds, the man in the moon, and hearing hidden messages on records played in reverse.
- Pessimism bias – 不幸的人往往认为负面事情发生的可能更大 the tendency for some people, especially those suffering from depression, to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them.
- Planning fallacy – 计划不如变化快 人们制定计划时往往低估任务时间 the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.[29]
- Post-purchase rationalization – 人们往往用理性的观点说服自己买东西买得值 the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
- Primacy effect – 相比中间时长的记忆 人们更易回忆起最近的与最早的记忆 the greater ease of recall of initial items in a sequence compared to items in the middle of the sequence.[41]
- Pro-innovation bias – 创新时往往过分看重新意忽略了另外的因素 the tendency to reflect a personal bias towards an invention/innovation, while often failing to identify limitations and weaknesses or address the possibility of failure.
- Pseudocertainty effect – 如果预期收益是正的 那么会采取更稳妥的决策而忽视了预期可能是错的 the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.[42]
- Reactance – 对于别人让你做的事一味的持反对意见 the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.
- Recency bias – 做判断时更倾向于通过事情的终点（及高峰）而其他信息忽视掉了 a cognitive bias that results from disproportionate salience of recent stimuli or observations — the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events (see also peak-end rule).
- Recency illusion – 参照上述眼球效应 the illusion that a phenomenon, typically a word or language usage, that one has just begun to notice is a recent innovation (see also frequency illusion).
- Regressive Bayesian likelihood – 低估了事情的极端发展 前面有类似的 estimates of conditional probabilities are conservative and not extreme enough[43][44]
- Restraint bias – 高估了自己面对诱惑的能力 the tendency to overestimate one's ability to show restraint in the face of temptation.
- Selective perception – 预期感知 例如认为很疼就会感到很疼 the tendency for expectations to affect perception.
- Semmelweis reflex – 人们倾向于否定新证据 拒绝新体系 the tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm.[45]
- Social comparison bias – 雇人时人们倾向于雇佣某方面不如自己的 the tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don't compete with one's own particular strengths.[46]
- Status quo bias – 期待事物一成不变 习惯成自然 the tendency to like things to stay relatively the same (see also loss aversion, endowment effect, and system justification).[47][48]
- Stereotyping – 刻板印象 对某些身份的人的成见 忽视个性 expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.
- Subadditivity effect – 估计一件事整体可能性低于其部分的可能性之和 the tendency to estimate that the likelihood of an event is less than the sum of its (more than two) mutually exclusive components.[49]
- Subjective validation – 主观验证 如果一件事某一点被特别认可其整体就更容易认可 perception that something is true if a subject's belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.
- Unit bias – 人们对食物的分装单位总认为是最合适的 可用来减肥 the tendency to want to finish a given unit of a task or an item. Strong effects on the consumption of food in particular.[50]
- Well travelled road effect – 人们对熟悉的路线时间会低估而不熟悉的会高估 underestimation of the duration taken to traverse oft-traveled routes and over-estimate the duration taken to traverse less familiar routes.
- Zero-risk bias – 人们倾向于小风险但确定的小收益而拒绝大风险大收益 preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk
Social biases 交际偏误
- Actor-observer bias – 表演者-观察者偏误 在行为解释中 作为表演者过分强调环境影响低估个人影响 而作为观察者相反 the tendency for explanations of other individuals' behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their situation (see also Fundamental attribution error), and for explanations of one's own behaviors to do the opposite (that is, to overemphasize the influence of our situation and underemphasize the influence of our own personality).
- Defensive attribution hypothesis – 随受害程度的加深 人们会更多同情受害者而加重责任者的责任 忽视个人与环境因素 defensive attributions are made when individuals witness or learns of a mishap happening to another person. In these situations, attributions of responsibility to the victim or harm-doer for the mishap will depend upon the severity of the outcomes of the mishap and the level of personal and situational similarity between the individual and victim. More responsibility will be attributed to the harm-doer as the outcome becomes more severe, and as personal or situational similarity decreases.
- Dunning–Kruger effect 无能的人因其无能无法意识到自己的无能 an effect in which incompetent people fail to realise they are incompetent, because they lack the skill to distinguish between competence and incompetence[51]
- Egocentric bias – 自我中心偏误 人们作为参与者要比观察者更能承担责任 occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would.
- Forer effect (aka Barnum effect) – 巴纳姆效应 但凡讲星座都要提到这个 看到星座描述都认为自己符合而实际上任何人都符合 the tendency to give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. For example, horoscopes.
- False consensus effect – 错误共识效应 认为别人跟自己的想法总是一致的 the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.[52]
- Fundamental attribution error – 行为解释上人们倾向于强调个人因素而忽略环境因素 the tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior (see also actor-observer bias, group attribution error, positivity effect, and negativity effect).[53]
- Halo effect – 光晕效应对某人的某方面特质影响会影响其对其他特质的判断 例如学习好就神马都好 the tendency for a person's positive or negative traits to "spill over" from one area of their personality to another in others' perceptions of them (see also physical attractiveness stereotype).[54]
- Illusion of asymmetric insight – 人们总会认为自己的知识了解要比同行深入而造成的不对称 people perceive their knowledge of their peers to surpass their peers' knowledge of them.[55]
- Illusion of transparency – 人们会高估自己被别人理解的程度也高估理解别人的程度 people overestimate others' ability to know them, and they also overestimate their ability to know others.
- Illusory superiority – 相对别人会高估自己的正面特性而低估自己的负面特性 overestimating one's desirable qualities, and underestimating undesirable qualities, relative to other people. (Also known as "Lake Wobegon effect," "better-than-average effect," or "superiority bias").[56]
- Ingroup bias – 人们会优先对待跟自己有联系的人 其实就是任人唯亲 the tendency for people to give preferential treatment to others they perceive to be members of their own groups.
- Just-world phenomenon – 跟上面重复了 宿命论 the tendency for people to believe that the world is just and therefore people "get what they deserve."
- Moral luck – 价值判断中道德的因素人们更多从结果出发而不是意愿 跟上面也有重复 the tendency for people to ascribe greater or lesser moral standing based on the outcome of an event rather than the intention
- Outgroup homogeneity bias – 组外一致性 认为不是自己这一方的人都是一样的 例如这世界有两种男人 宅男与非宅男 individuals see members of their own group as being relatively more varied than members of other groups.[57]
- Projection bias –投射 无意识归因于他人 否认自己自身的问题 the tendency to unconsciously assume that others (or one's future selves) share one's current emotional states, thoughts and values.[58]
- Self-serving bias – 自利偏差 成功了是自己的功劳 失败了是别人的过失 the tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failures. It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way beneficial to their interests (see also group-serving bias).[59]
- System justification – 认为现在是最好的 拒绝改变 the tendency to defend and bolster the status quo. Existing social, economic, and political arrangements tend to be preferred, and alternatives disparaged sometimes even at the expense of individual and collective self-interest. (See also status quo bias.)
- Trait ascription bias – 品质归属偏视 类似脸谱化的认知 人们认为自己感情丰富而他人品质单一 the tendency for people to view themselves as relatively variable in terms of personality, behavior, and mood while viewing others as much more predictable.
- Ultimate attribution error – 参照fundamental attribution error 不过感觉后面解释更像Outgroup homogeneity bias similar to the fundamental attribution error, in this error a person is likely to make an internal attribution to an entire group instead of the individuals within the group.
- Worse-than-average effect – 低估别人的能力 上面有其反面的效应 a tendency to believe ourselves to be worse than others at tasks which are difficult[60]
Memory errors and biases 记忆错误与偏视
- Cryptomnesia – 把记忆当成想象或梦境 这个我看到多种解释这里用list中的 a form of misattribution where a memory is mistaken for imagination.
- Egocentric bias – 自我中心偏误 将过去的记忆感情强化导致的偏误 recalling the past in a self-serving manner, e.g., remembering one's exam grades as being better than they were, or remembering a caught fish as being bigger than it was.
- False memory – 把想象当成记忆 a form of misattribution where imagination is mistaken for a memory.
- Hindsight bias – 上面有类似的 用现有知识过滤记忆 结果就是好像我一直都知道一样 filtering memory of past events through present knowledge, so that those events look more predictable than they actually were; also known as the "I-knew-it-all-along effect."[24]
- Positivity effect – 老年人的记忆都很美好 older adults remember relatively more positive than negative things, compared with younger adults[61]
- Reminiscence bump – 人们更易回忆起青年时代的事 the effect that people tend to recall more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than from other lifetime periods.
- Rosy retrospection – 认为过去的时光很美好 the tendency to rate past events more positively than they had actually rated them when the event occurred.
- Self-serving bias – 上面有类似的 成则我成 败则他败 perceiving oneself responsible for desirable outcomes but not responsible for undesirable ones.
- Suggestibility – 将质疑者的建议作为自己的记忆 a form of misattribution where ideas suggested by a questioner are mistaken for memory.
- Telescoping effect – 过去的事显得很遥远 现在的事显得很近 the effect that recent events appear to have occurred more remotely and remote events appear to have occurred more recently.
- Von Restorff effect – 引人注目的事情容易被记住 参考峰终效应 the tendency for an item that "stands out like a sore thumb" to be more likely to be remembered than other items.
Common theoretical causes of some cognitive biases 常识导致的认知偏误
扩展阅读（个人推荐）
- Bounded rationality – 有限理性 人的理性不是全职的 limits on optimization and rationality
- Attribute substitution – 复杂问题简单化造成的杯具 making a complex, difficult judgment by unconsciously substituting it by an easier judgment[62]
- Attribution theory, 归因理论 上面有涉及不赘述especially:
- Cognitive dissonance, 认知失调 and related:
- Heuristics, 启发法 including:
- Availability heuristic – estimating what is more likely by what is more available in memory, which is biased toward vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples[27]
- Representativeness heuristic – judging probabilities on the basis of resemblance[27]
- Affect heuristic – basing a decision on an emotional reaction rather than a calculation of risks and benefits[63]
- Introspection illusion内省幻觉 认为只有自己真正了解自己
- Adaptive bias - 认为存在合理 忽视信息 basing decisions on limited information and biasing them based on the costs of being wrong.
- Misinterpretations or misuse of statistics.统计数据的错误使用
扩展阅读（个人推荐）
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