[请教] 2011年，NWP（Numerical Weather Prediction）的发展进入饱和期了吗？

        欧洲中期天气预报中心 ECMWF（ European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）是天气预报领域全球中期预报世界公认的领头羊。

        从以下4个图片可见，大约从2011年开始，数值天气预报NWP预报的性能进入“平台期”（饱和期）。请问：

       （1）这是一种经济类的外部限制？即，可以克服的困难，外因。

       （2）还是该方法已经接近其能力极限？内因。

(1) Anomaly correlation of ECMWF 500hPa height forecasts

(2) Lead time of 1-SEEPS of 24-h precipitation reaching a threshold

(3) Lead time of ACC reaching 80% and 60%

(4) Verification of the high-resolution forecast of surface parameters

下图：Normalised root-meansquare (rms) error difference for  (b) 850 hPa vector wind in tropics

(5) Figure 3 Normalised root-meansquare (rms) error difference for (b) 850 hPa wind vector forecasts in the tropics

相关链接：

[1] 庄世宇，2013-03-01，2030年，天气预报会达到怎样的水准

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-665782-666092.html

[2] ALAN THORPE.  JULY 4, 2012. Weather forecasts in 2030

http://www.isgtw.org/feature/weather-forecasts-2030

A version of this story first appeared in the ECMWF Newsletter No. 131 – Spring 2012.  

[3]  ECMWF | World leader in global medium-range numerical weather forecasts

http://www.ecmwf.int/

[4] Anomaly correlation of ECMWF 500hPa height forecasts

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/anomaly-correlation-ecmwf-500hpa-height-forecasts

[5] Lead time of 1-SEEPS of 24-h precipitation reaching a threshold

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/lead-time-1-seeps-24-h-precipitation-reaching-threshold

[6] Lead time of ACC reaching 80% and 60%

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/lead-time-acc-reaching-80-and-60

[7] Verification of the high-resolution forecast of surface parameters

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/verification-high-resolution-forecast-surface-parameters

[8] Newsletter - ECMWF

http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/NL142.pdf