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1978年至2018年国内发展的事故致因模型(综述):回顾与比较

已有 1241 次阅读 2022-1-19 15:58 |个人分类:学术交流|系统分类:论文交流

1978年至2018年国内发展的事故致因模型:回顾与比较

摘要:作为安全科学的理论基础,事故致因模型为事故分析和预防提供了理论框架。事故致因理论和模型构成了许多安全研究领域和实践的基础。尽管安全研究人员提出了许多事故致因果模型,但是国内学者提出的事故致因模型在中国以外并不为人所知,因为它们大多以中文发表。本文根据时间发展顺序介绍了国内的事故致因模型的简史。我国安全科学及其学科的快速发展始于1978年,这是中国改革开放的开局之年。1978 年至 2018 年间,我国安全研究人员提出了超过 21 种不同的事故致因模型。根据三个标准,这些事故致因模型分为两类:普通的事故致因模型和流行的事故致因模型。大多数的事故致因模型自提出以来就没有被应用或为人所知晓。本文选取在这一阶段在国内流行的五种事故致因模型进行详细介绍,并与其他模型进行比较。这些事故致因模型在一定程度上影响了政府和企业的政策制定和事故调查。

关键词:事故致因模型;事故致因“2-4”模型;轨迹交叉理论;两类危险源理论;三类危险源理论;综合原因论事故模型

Accident causation models developed in China between 1978 and 2018: Review and comparison

 A B S T R A C T: As the theoretical foundation of safety science, accident causation models provide a theoretical framework of accident analysis and prevention. Accident causation theories and models form the basis for many safety research fields and practices. There are many accident causation models proposed by safety researchers. However, accident causation models proposed by Chinese scholars are not known outside China, because most of these models have been published in Chinese. A brief history of accident causation models developed in China is presented according to the timeline in this article. The rapid development of safety science and its discipline in China began in 1978, which is the beginning year of Chinese Reform and Open-up. More than 21 different accident causation models have been proposed by safety researchers in China between 1978 and 2018. According to three criteria, these accident causation models are classified into two types: general accident models and popular accident models. Most accident causation models as general models have not been applied or known since they were proposed. Five popular accident causation models are selected to be introduced in some detail and compared with other models. To some extent, these accident causation models have influenced on the government policy formulation and accident investigation. 

Keywords: Accident causation model; Accident Causation ''2-4'' Model; Trajectory Intersecting Model; Two Types of Hazard Model; Three Types of Hazard Model; Comprehensive Accident Causes Model

引用格式: : Ge, J., Zhang, Y.Y., Chen, S.K., Xu, K.L., Yao, X.W., Li, J.S., Liu, B., Yan, F., Wu, C.Y., Li, S.Y. Accident causation models developed in China between 1978 and 2018: Review and comparison. Safety Science,148, 105653. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105653








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