博雅达观分享 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/hillside 思接地质年代,眼扫地球内外 …… 跋涉于水文水资源、地理科学、土地利用与规划、科学思辨、中外哲学

博文

鲁棒性在气候科学研究中的应用一瞥——气候变化真鲁棒? 

已有 5405 次阅读 2014-1-18 19:43 |个人分类:大气科学|系统分类:科研笔记| 气候, 鲁棒性

  据不完全搜索(普通外网与中国知网),“鲁棒”与“气候变化”在中文世界中似乎缺少直接关联,但在国外气候科学研究中“鲁棒“与”气候”已经喜结良缘,不少文献出现,现略举数例:


用两个高分辨率气候变化模拟情景分析欧洲极端降水变化的鲁棒性hillside2014-1-1800hillside15 秒前

试用集合气候模型对月气温降水概率分布函数的变化预测值进行鲁棒性估算——英文论文hillside2014-1-18012hillside22 分钟前

空间鲁棒的气候极值聚集预测研究——英文论文介绍hillside2014-1-18018hillside1 小时前

局地降水极值未来变化的鲁棒性研究——英文论文介绍hillside2014-1-18014hillside1 小时前


     我个人判断,“集合预报”及“鲁棒性”都与所谓“不确定性”有着不解之缘,假以时日,它们之间应当可以建立关联(后来找到一点国外研究信息,见于附件)。    


附1:                                   PNAS文章确定全球变暖多重影响下的热点区域

      国家科学图书馆《科学研究动态监测快报》2013年7月15日第14期(总第128期)气候变化科学专辑

   根据PNAS在线发布的一项题为《全球变暖的多行业气候影响热点区域》(Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World)的最新研究成果,如果温室气体排放量有增无减,本世纪末全球可能有1/10的人口生活在气候影响的热点区域。在最糟糕的情景下,还有更多的人会面临粮食减产、水资源缺乏、生态系统失衡和人体健康等多重风险。

   该研究由德国波茨坦气候影响研究所(PIK)、国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)和其他单位的研究人员合作完成,模拟在全球不同地区,气候变化对水的供应、疾病的传播、农业生产和生态系统的影响会如何重叠,结果确定亚马逊地区、地中海和东非地区的多个行业可能会经历剧烈变化。研究本身是跨行业影响模型对比计划(ISI-MIP)的部分产出成果之一。

   文章的第一组作者,PIK的Franziska Piontek指出,气候变化对不同部门的重叠影响可能会相互作用,并因此对受影响地区的人民的生计带来数倍的压力,这就是该研究关注全球多个行业的原因。中国科学院合著者汤秋鸿指出,研究将过去30年中最干旱的3年设定为阈值,如果未来情景下水资源量低于该阈值,则认为气候变化给该区域带来水资源缺乏的环境风险。结果表明,当前的极端情况在未来可能成为常态。多个不同气候模型的组合增加了结果的鲁棒性和传播效果。共同作者之一,NASA戈达德空间研究所的Alex Ruane提出,多个模型预测得出的热点区域比单个模型模拟得到的要更可靠。

   这是首例基于计算机模型全面模拟气候变化及其影响,并确定气候变化影响的行业热点的研究,也是全球气候影响的研究人员首次共同努力阐明人类正在面临的风险。研究的目的是为未来分析全球变暖的后果奠定新基础。                                                (裴惠娟 编译)

    原文题目:Identifying Climate Impact Hotspots Across Sectors


附2:                         气候变化再审视———非政府国际气候变化研究组报告

  (见本人帖子:介绍«气候变化再审视——非政府国际气候变化研究组报告» (2013年5月出版)

   2 模型的本质问题

   Susan Solomon (IPCC 第四次评估报告发布时第一工作小组的联合主席) 和在«美国国家科学院院报» (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America) 上撰文的其他3个作者指出, 由大气CO2 浓度增加导致的气候变化在排放停止后的1000 年内是不可逆转的(Solomon etal,2009)。 这在虚拟世界的计算机运行的气候模型中可能如此,但是在现实世界里未必如此。

   这4位科学家提出气候参数建模需要符合三个标准条件: ①观测到的变化已经出现且有证据表明是人为因素引起的; ②各种现象基于充分理解的物理原理;③预测是有效的,且在模型间具有足够的鲁棒性。

   对于Solomon等提出的第三条标准,许多计算机模型预测确实是有效的,并且在模型间具有鲁棒性,但这些模型的假设和具体时空上的结论通常存在巨大的分歧,甚至并不能证明彼此的有效性,也不能将这些不一致的预测进行组合产生有意义的平均值。许多研究发现,实际数据与模型预测相悖。因此,认为这些模型是鲁棒的想法只是痴心妄想而已

附3:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3990.1

                                Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming

                                                                (水文循环对于全球变暖的鲁棒响应)

Isaac M. Held

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

Brian J. Soden

Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida

                                                                     Abstract

Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.

Received: September 13, 2005; Final Form: March 17, 2006

附4:http://www.iansa.eu/papers/IANSA-2012-01-dreslerova.pdf(全文下载)

                               Human Response to Potential Robust Climate Change around 5500 cal BP

                                                  in the Territory of Bohemia (the Czech Republic)

                    (公元前5500左右波希米亚地区人类对于潜在的鲁棒气候变化的响应)

                Interdisciplinaria archaeologica(《跨学科考古学》杂志),Volume III ● Issue 1/2012  

                                                                        Dagmar Dreslerováa等

                                                                                  1. Introduction

   This contribution is dedicated to Marek Zvelebil. The range of his interests was admirably wide, from the life of hunters and gatherers through the Mesolithic – Neolithic transition and the beginning of agriculture, to the study of the ancient landscape as a whole. He used various approaches to solve archaeological themes including ethnography, linguistics, or environmental studies. In the latter respect he did not fear being accused of environmental determinism, as the example of an explanatory model for the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition in Denmark, published together with Rowley-Conwy (Rowley-Conwy 1984, Zvelebil, Rowley-Conwy 1984) demonstrates. The expressions flux and transition were often used in his work but may also be used in order to characterise Marek Zvelebil himself. Landscape, environment and flux will also be the subject of this article. It attempts to answer the question as to whether the observed change in spatial distribution of archaeological evidence from the Neolithic and Eneolithic (in the sense of the Middle and Late Neolithic in NW Europe, ca. 4200–2200 BC) might have been caused by a change in climate or whether this phenomenon was independent from external forces and a result of cultural factors. The previous climate, as the most important agent influencing the alteration of all other parts of an environment, is the subject of many scientific disciplines, although the outcomes are, despite tremendous efforts, still somewhat unsatisfactory. The main reasons for this are: the complexity of the climate system as such, the regionality of the climate, the short history of its direct instrumental measurement, the evaluation of the climatic parameters in relative terms (e.g. wetter, drier), the varying sensitivities of the proxies, and the difficulties of their more precise dating. Previous allegations can be illustrated by comparing proxy data supported by warmer/drier and cooler/wetter climate phases at ca. 6000 cal BP in Britain and north-west Europe (Schulting 2010) or in the eastern Mediterranean and adjacent regions over the past 6000 years (Finné et al. 2011). In both cases the proxies from the same period of time vary enormously in spite of the relative geographical proximity of the areas.

附5:http://www.theccc.org.uk/blog/climate-science-remains-robust-despite-claims-in-the-mail/

                                                                            气候科学依然鲁棒

                                                                    (摘录,全文可见链接)

                Climate science remains robust despite claims in the MailParliament has given the CCC the responsibility to constantly monitor the science upon which we depend to guide our responses to the threat of climate change. Like all scientists, we always take a sceptical stance, testing each assertion against the evidence and ensuring proper peer review of every important finding. Although we turn to the experts to find the best available facts, we assess material from other sources carefully, to ensure that we have missed no useful insights.

The Mail on Sunday recently published an article by David Rose challenging fundamental aspects of climate science and suggesting that action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is unwarranted. In accordance with our responsibility, we considered the three main claims, which focus on:…………

附6:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.543/pdf 

                                                        Robust adaptation to climate change

                                                                                  ( 气候变化的鲁棒性适应)

                                                                                 Robert L. Wilby 1 and Suraje Dessai 2,3

1 Department of Geography, Loughborough University,Leicestershire, UK 2 School of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 3  Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK

                                                                                              Introduction

 Coupled ocean/atmosphere general circulation models (OA/GCMs) have been instrumental in showing the  need for global action to curb the anthropogenic emissions that cause climate change. It may be contested, however, that these tools have been less helpful in informing how to adapt at regional and local scales (Schiermeier, 2007). Given the legacy of past emissions and the prospect of unavoidable climate change, the case for committing more financial and technical resources to adaptation is gaining ground (UNDP, 2007; Parry  et al., 2009). This poses a challenging question: how can we ensure that adaptation measures realize societal benefits now, and over coming decades, despite uncertainty about climate variability and change?

 The scientific community is developing regional climate downscaling (RCD) techniques to reconcile the scale mismatch

between coarse-resolution OA/GCMs and location-specific information needs of adaptation planners.  The resulting ‘scenarios’ are regarded as plausible descriptions of the future climate that reflect the influence of local topography and/or land-sea effects, and their interactions with changing synoptic-scale weather patterns under rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Thanks to widely available and user-friendly tools, the volume of peer-reviewed research on RCD has grown dramatically over the last decade (Wilby et al., 2009). It is becoming apparent, however, that downscaling also has serious practical limitations, especially where the meteorological data scenarios.

 The value of high-resolution climate change scenarios for long-term planning may be questionable wherever climate variability is  already stressing human and environmental systems. For instance, parts of North Africa and the Middle East are facing a water crisis due to rapid population growth, combined with weak governance, climate variability and limited renewable supplies. Under these circumstances, even achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 (such as access to safe drinking water) may seem a remote prospect, let alone sustaining progress under climate change to the 2020s and beyond. Hence, there have been calls to re-examine the ways in which climate risk information is used in adaptation and development planning (Dessai  et al.,2005).

 This paper begins by comparing two different approaches to climate risk assessment in adaptation planning. We then describe a framework for robust adaptation decision-making that departs from traditional ‘predict and provide’ methods. We draw upon examples from the water sectors of developing and developed countries as evidence of how significant progress can be made in the majority of cases  without climate change projections. Our views are also shaped by recent experiences of supporting adaptation in practice.

附7:http://www.ghanabusinessnews.com/2013/06/06/african-countries-need-robust-climate-change-policies-fao/

                                                                            非洲国家需要鲁棒的气候政策

market1There is the need for African countries  to formulate and implement robust policies, to mainstream climate change adaptation and mitigation into national and sub-national development plans.

Dr Lamoudia Thiombiano, Country Representative, Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, who made the call, also said there was the need for these countries to increase public and private investments in agriculture and rural transformation.

He was speaking at the ongoing 2nd Climate Change and Population Conference being hosted by the Regional Institute of Population Studies (RIPS), University of Ghana, Accra.

- See more at: http://www.ghanabusinessnews.com/2013/06/06/african-countries-need-robust-climate-change-policies-fao/#sthash.ey1rzCDS.dpuf


附8:http://www.nber.org/papers/w16440

关于非洲内战与气候变化之间存在鲁棒性的肯定性研究及否认其间鲁棒性存在的反驳论文

                       Climate and Civil War: Is the Relationship Robust?

          Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath

      NBER Working Paper No. 16440,Issued in October 2010

A recent paper by Burke et al. (henceforth “we”) finds a strong historical relationship between warmer- than-average temperatures and the incidence of civil war in Africa (Burke et al. 2009). These findings have recently been challenged by Buhaug (2010) who finds fault with how we controlled for other potential explanatory variables, how we coded civil wars, and with our choice of historical time period and climate dataset. We demonstrate that Buhaug’s proposed method of controlling for confounding variables has serious econometric shortcomings and show that our original findings are robust to the use of different climate data and to alternate codings of major war. Using Buhaug’s preferred climate data under sound econometric assumptions yields results that suggest an even stronger relationship between temperature and conflict for the 1981-2002 period than we originally reported. We do find that our historical relationship between temperature and conflict weakens over the last decade, a period of unprecedented African economic growth and very few large wars.

This paper is available as PDF (250 K) or via email.

附9:http://www.jydoc.com/article/9151.html 

                                           鲁棒性——健康的系统

                        时间:2005年04月11日 作者:普通高中通用技术课程 点击:48次

  控制系统的鲁棒性研究是现代控制理论研究中一个非常活跃的领域,鲁棒控制问题最早出现在上个世纪人们对于微分方程的研究中。Black首先在他的1927年的一项专利上应用了鲁棒控制。但是什么叫做鲁棒性呢?其实这个名字是一个音译,其英文拼写为Robust。也就是健壮和强壮的意思。控制专家用这个名字来表示当一个控制系统中的参数发生摄动时系统能否保持正常工作的一种特性或属性。就像人在受到外界病菌的感染后,是否能够通过自身的免疫系统恢复健康一样。



https://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-350729-760260.html

上一篇:大气层结、大气廓线——“结”在何处?它是如何得名的?
下一篇:建议“科学网新闻”增加“推荐到群组”的链接—甚至再推到博客?
收藏 IP: 58.240.142.*| 热度|

1 杨正瓴

该博文允许注册用户评论 请点击登录 评论 (0 个评论)

数据加载中...
扫一扫,分享此博文

Archiver|手机版|科学网 ( 京ICP备07017567号-12 )

GMT+8, 2024-6-15 23:08

Powered by ScienceNet.cn

Copyright © 2007- 中国科学报社

返回顶部