Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
（水文循环对于全球变暖的鲁棒响应）
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
Brian J. SodenRosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
| Abstract |
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Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.
Received: September 13, 2005; Final Form: March 17, 2006
附4：http://www.iansa.eu/papers/IANSA-2012-01-dreslerova.pdf(全文下载)
Human Response to Potential Robust Climate Change around 5500 cal BP
in the Territory of Bohemia (the Czech Republic)
（公元前5500左右波希米亚地区人类对于潜在的鲁棒气候变化的响应）
Interdisciplinaria archaeologica（《跨学科考古学》杂志），Volume III ● Issue 1/2012
Dagmar Dreslerováa等
1. Introduction
This contribution is dedicated to Marek Zvelebil. The range of his interests was admirably wide, from the life of hunters and gatherers through the Mesolithic – Neolithic transition and the beginning of agriculture, to the study of the ancient landscape as a whole. He used various approaches to solve archaeological themes including ethnography, linguistics, or environmental studies. In the latter respect he did not fear being accused of environmental determinism, as the example of an explanatory model for the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition in Denmark, published together with Rowley-Conwy (Rowley-Conwy 1984, Zvelebil, Rowley-Conwy 1984) demonstrates. The expressions flux and transition were often used in his work but may also be used in order to characterise Marek Zvelebil himself. Landscape, environment and flux will also be the subject of this article. It attempts to answer the question as to whether the observed change in spatial distribution of archaeological evidence from the Neolithic and Eneolithic (in the sense of the Middle and Late Neolithic in NW Europe, ca. 4200–2200 BC) might have been caused by a change in climate or whether this phenomenon was independent from external forces and a result of cultural factors. The previous climate, as the most important agent influencing the alteration of all other parts of an environment, is the subject of many scientific disciplines, although the outcomes are, despite tremendous efforts, still somewhat unsatisfactory. The main reasons for this are: the complexity of the climate system as such, the regionality of the climate, the short history of its direct instrumental measurement, the evaluation of the climatic parameters in relative terms (e.g. wetter, drier), the varying sensitivities of the proxies, and the difficulties of their more precise dating. Previous allegations can be illustrated by comparing proxy data supported by warmer/drier and cooler/wetter climate phases at ca. 6000 cal BP in Britain and north-west Europe (Schulting 2010) or in the eastern Mediterranean and adjacent regions over the past 6000 years (Finné et al. 2011). In both cases the proxies from the same period of time vary enormously in spite of the relative geographical proximity of the areas.
附5：http://www.theccc.org.uk/blog/climate-science-remains-robust-despite-claims-in-the-mail/
气候科学依然鲁棒
（摘录，全文可见链接）
Climate science remains robust despite claims in the MailParliament has given the CCC the responsibility to constantly monitor the science upon which we depend to guide our responses to the threat of climate change. Like all scientists, we always take a sceptical stance, testing each assertion against the evidence and ensuring proper peer review of every important finding. Although we turn to the experts to find the best available facts, we assess material from other sources carefully, to ensure that we have missed no useful insights.The Mail on Sunday recently published an article by David Rose challenging fundamental aspects of climate science and suggesting that action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is unwarranted. In accordance with our responsibility, we considered the three main claims, which focus on:…………
附6：http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.543/pdf
Robust adaptation to climate change
（ 气候变化的鲁棒性适应）
Robert L. Wilby 1 and Suraje Dessai 2,3
1 Department of Geography, Loughborough University,Leicestershire, UK 2 School of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK 3 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK
Introduction
Coupled ocean/atmosphere general circulation models (OA/GCMs) have been instrumental in showing the need for global action to curb the anthropogenic emissions that cause climate change. It may be contested, however, that these tools have been less helpful in informing how to adapt at regional and local scales (Schiermeier, 2007). Given the legacy of past emissions and the prospect of unavoidable climate change, the case for committing more financial and technical resources to adaptation is gaining ground (UNDP, 2007; Parry et al., 2009). This poses a challenging question: how can we ensure that adaptation measures realize societal benefits now, and over coming decades, despite uncertainty about climate variability and change?
The scientific community is developing regional climate downscaling (RCD) techniques to reconcile the scale mismatch
between coarse-resolution OA/GCMs and location-specific information needs of adaptation planners. The resulting ‘scenarios’ are regarded as plausible descriptions of the future climate that reflect the influence of local topography and/or land-sea effects, and their interactions with changing synoptic-scale weather patterns under rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Thanks to widely available and user-friendly tools, the volume of peer-reviewed research on RCD has grown dramatically over the last decade (Wilby et al., 2009). It is becoming apparent, however, that downscaling also has serious practical limitations, especially where the meteorological data scenarios.
The value of high-resolution climate change scenarios for long-term planning may be questionable wherever climate variability is already stressing human and environmental systems. For instance, parts of North Africa and the Middle East are facing a water crisis due to rapid population growth, combined with weak governance, climate variability and limited renewable supplies. Under these circumstances, even achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 (such as access to safe drinking water) may seem a remote prospect, let alone sustaining progress under climate change to the 2020s and beyond. Hence, there have been calls to re-examine the ways in which climate risk information is used in adaptation and development planning (Dessai et al.,2005).
This paper begins by comparing two different approaches to climate risk assessment in adaptation planning. We then describe a framework for robust adaptation decision-making that departs from traditional ‘predict and provide’ methods. We draw upon examples from the water sectors of developing and developed countries as evidence of how significant progress can be made in the majority of cases without climate change projections. Our views are also shaped by recent experiences of supporting adaptation in practice.
非洲国家需要鲁棒的气候政策
There is the need for African countries to formulate and implement robust policies, to mainstream climate change adaptation and mitigation into national and sub-national development plans.
Dr Lamoudia Thiombiano, Country Representative, Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, who made the call, also said there was the need for these countries to increase public and private investments in agriculture and rural transformation.
He was speaking at the ongoing 2nd Climate Change and Population Conference being hosted by the Regional Institute of Population Studies (RIPS), University of Ghana, Accra.
- See more at: http://www.ghanabusinessnews.com/2013/06/06/african-countries-need-robust-climate-change-policies-fao/#sthash.ey1rzCDS.dpuf
