For new readers and those who request to be “好友 good friends” ,  please read my 公告栏 first.

The candidacy of Donald Trump and his seeming popularity are the new  phenomenon in American election politics 2016. Here are my personal  opinions on this subject

1.   Trumphas tapped into 30-40% of the US population who see that their promised “American Dream” slipping from their grasp and are very angry about it

2.   You may ask how this came about. Three reasons in my opinion:

a.   Generally speaking, the US population has been promised too  much. In a sense, they are spoiled and most are unwilling to take low  paying jobs such as farm labor, food and hotel service, etc. Immigrants,  legal or not, are taking over these jobs. This further breeds anger.

b.   Good paying job demands more education, particularly  technical knowledge. The US generally does a poor job in educating the  population in these respects and donot emphasize hard work and exercises  in schools. Thus, a significant portion of the population are not qualified  for  these jobs. Highly educated Asian immigrants captures a large  portion of these jobs. This again breeds anger.

c.    Factually, the inequality of income (ThomasPicketty)  is structural  with Capitalism and the inequality of opportunity is growing  in the US (Google the subject together with Robert Putnam) Notes added 4/24/2106: to buttress my points "a" and "b" above read the new article by Neal Gabler in the Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/my-secret-shame/476415/

3.   Trump on the other hand correctly sensed this opportunity and  taps into this frustration by promising whole sale changes without saying how these changes can be brought about. (To a much lesser extent, the popularity of Senator Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side can also be attributed to this anger and desire for change.)

4.   For example, in the area of foreign policy Trump advocates,  whether because of ignorance or new thinking, turning the policy of the past 70 years  upside down on nuclear non-proliferation, and first use of nuclear weapons.   In other words,”Might makes right” and “total unpredictability is good for negotiation”. On  immigration, he advocates borders (i.e., walls) and banning entry to the US for certain  religious groups (never mind it is unconstitutional).

5.   Thus,the question is “Is instability,ignorance,  and unpredictability the price the US willing to pay for the next 4 years just for the sake of change, particularly if the means and benefits for change are not spelled out or clear?”

6.   My guess is that in a general election the answer will be no by the majority.

Notes added 5/2/2016: Here are two more addresses to read about Donald Trump and the US election for those of you have access to New York Times

Note added 2/12/2017. Trump did not win the majority/popular vote. It is the electrol college system that got him elected.

If Not Trump, What?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/opinion/if-not-trump-what.html

Analyzing the Appeal of Donald Trump

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/03/opinion/analyzing-the-appeal-of-donald-trump.html?emc=edit_ae_20160502&nl=todaysheadlines-asia&nlid=11694710