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学一点股市经济学:明斯基时刻(Minsky Moment)(GT+)

已有 1745 次阅读 2020-9-4 02:52 |个人分类:From the U.S.|系统分类:海外观察| Minsky Moment, 明斯基时刻

What is a Minsky Moment? 什么是明斯基时刻?)

Minsky Moment refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. Minsky Moment is named after economist Hyman Minsky and defines the point in time where the sudden decline in market sentiment inevitably leads to a market crash.

明斯基时刻(Minsky Moment)指的是鲁莽投机活动所导致的股市崩溃。这种投机活动决定了不可持续的看涨期。 Minsky Moment以经济学家海曼·明斯基(Hyman Minsky)的名字命名,它定义了股市情绪突然下降不可避免地导致市场崩溃的时间起点。



·      Minsky Moment refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. 【明斯基时刻(Minsky Moment)是指因鲁莽投机活动所导致的股市崩溃的开始。这种投机活动定义了不可持续的看涨期。】
·      Minsky Moment crises generally occur because investors, engaging in excessively aggressive speculation, take on additional credit risk during bull markets. 【明斯基时刻(Minsky Moment)危机之所以发生,一般是因为参与过度激进投机的投资者在牛市期间承担了额外的信用风险。】
 ·      Minsky Moment defines the tipping point when speculative activity reaches an extreme that is unsustainable, leading to rapid price deflation and unpreventable market collapse. 【明斯基时刻(Minsky Moment)定义了投机活动达到不可持续的极端时的引爆点,导致极端的价格通缩和无法预防的股市崩溃。】


Understanding Minsky Moment 

A Minsky Moment is based on the idea that periods of bullish speculation, if they last long enough, will eventually lead to crisis, and the longer the speculation occurs, the more severe the crisis will be. Hyman Minsky's main claim to economic theory fame was centered around the concept of the inherent instability of markets, especially bull markets. He felt that extended bull markets always end in epic collapses.

 Minsky postulated that an abnormally long bullish economic growth cycle will spur an asymmetric rise in market speculation that will, eventually, result in market instability and collapse. A Minsky Moment crisis follows a prolonged period of bullish speculation, which is also associated with high amounts of debt taken on by both retail and institutional investors.

 The term Minsky Moment was coined in 1998 by Paul McCulley, of PIMCO fame while referring to the Asian Debt Crisis of 1997. A dissection of the causes that led to this crisis put the preponderance of blame on speculators putting increasing pressure on dollar-pegged Asian currencies until they eventually collapsed.

Perhaps the most famous, or at least the most recent, crisis that brought Minsky Moment to the forefront, if for no other reason than as an example of the dangers of profligacy, was the 2008 financial crisis, also called the Great Recession. During the height of this crisis, a wide range of markets reached all-time lows, triggering a wave of margin calls, a massive selloff in assets to cover debts, and higher default rates.


1 郑永军

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