《世界粮食与农业：过去５０年的教训》 

二十世纪八十年代

摘译自FAO出版的《THE STATE  OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2000》一书

·很多拉美及非洲国家失去的10年

·经济稳定与结构调整

·非洲饥荒，环境与可持续发展

·贸易紧张与乌拉圭回合的发起

经济危机和调整

二十世纪八十年代的10年大多被持久的经济衰退所主导，经济衰退影响了很多国家，包括发达国家和发展中国家，对这些国家的农业发展和整体发展造成不利的影响。《粮食与农业状况》报道，很多发展中国家尽管对稳定和恢复经济进行了不懈的努力，引进强硬的政策措施，但是年复一年，其经济处于无休止的恶化状态。1990年出版的《粮食与农业状况》有专门的章节对这一危机时期作了大量的总结，标题是“结构调整与农业”。

二十世纪八十年代早期国际经济环境突变后出现了危机。在危机前金融市场通畅，很多发展中国家实行扩充的财政和货币政策。1979年的第二次石油震荡和五年前不同，导致许多发达国家紧缩货币和财政政策，造成经济活动严重放慢。经济减速造成进口需求降低，这与国际商品价格陡降相吻合。国际信贷突然枯竭，向发展中国家的资金流入停止。70年代借债很重而且将资金投入生产力低的项目的国家不能偿还其外债。1982年墨西哥承认自己无偿还债务的必需资金，从而掀起一场全球危机，使很多发展中国家卷入了深深的经济衰退之中。特别依赖对外贸易且债务沉重的拉美国家受到的影响尤其严重。亚洲是这十年中人均收入没有下降的唯一地区。危机还导致了1982年的贸易紧缩，这在25年来是第一次；危机导致了这10年中其他年份贸易增长低。发展中国家的外债负担日益加重，已敲响了警钟，

《粮食与农业状况》还注意到，发展中国家对这场危机在政策上的反应有某种消极因素，这进一步加剧了危机。各国要在尽可能短的时间内稳定经济只能缩减财政开支和减少进口。国际贷款机构强制许多国家实行的结构调整计划（SAPS）成了政府被迫恢复经济健康的手段。SAPS有条件限制，即政府减少支出，货币贬值，市场自由化和公有企业的私有化。这对很多发展中国家而言是严重的经济冲击和社会振荡：在提供社会公共服务的同时工资下降，失业率上升，因此城镇各行业也会受到影响。市场自由化避免了政府的干预。《粮食与农业状况》提出如下论点：如果为了恢复经济平衡必须保持稳定，为了有坚实的增长基础而进行调整，这个措施的直接社会成本是让人不能接受的，需要政府和金融机构再作调整。

危机和处理危机的措施对农业有直接的影响。很多农业受到农产品价格低和利率高的价格挤兑，农业受市场影响大的国家尤其如此。有利于农业的公众支持计划被缩减了或取消了，而那些帮助政治上的弱势穷人的计划往往首先砍掉。往往首先推迟农业产品生产、销售和投入供应系统的改善。收入减少和信贷限制迫使农场主减少雇员和减少购买化肥及其他生产必需品。所有这些因素都使很多国家的农业生产进一步恶化，加重了农村的苦难。二十世纪70年代至80年代期间，拉美国家和加勒比地区，农业生产的年平均增长率从3.5%下降到2.2%；在其它地区，这种危机对农业产出增长的影响不容易感觉到；非洲粮食生产的增长速度低于人口增长速度。

在这个时期农业贸易也受到严重打击。整个发展中国家的农业出口年增长率从二十世纪70年代的15%下降到80年代的3%以下。这主要是由于商品价格的急剧下跌。尽管1987/88年出现了短期的价格上涨，但1989年发展中国家农业出口价格的总体水平比1980年下降了三分之一。商品价格的下跌是由于很多国家巨大的债务强迫它们扩大出口生产同时减少进口，加上农业出口的需求疲软和农产品没能完全进入发达国家市场的缘故。同时，发展中国家某些农产品的市场的竞争力受到工业化国家的农业保护政策（如出口补贴）的影响而大大地削弱。不利的经济环境加剧了保护压力和贸易紧张，而与此同时阻碍了在加强与农业贸易、粮食安全和发展援助方面的多边调解中的国际努力。本来就已失去活力的国际农产品协定在这个时期彻底瓦解。

具有深远意义的中国改革

然而并不是经济政策和农业政策上所有极端的变革计划都有这种负面效应。二十世纪70年代末期，中国的政策制定者对农村实行了一系列的改革，改变了过去农业中出现的令人不满意的局面。1978年开始采取的措施是通过提高农产品价格和提高农民收入，促进农民增收，从而促进农业生产，但随后是对农业的完全重组。在不到五年的时间内，由集体所有制到家庭承包责任制的政策变化使资源的控制和粮食生产发生了变化。二十世纪80年代早期，政府解散了人民公社，实行了家庭承包责任制，由价格和市场来决定投入和生产。

本刊在当年并未提到这些改革，而是在1985年全球十年回顾时首次讨论了这个问题。1985年的《粮食与农业状况》对中国的政策改革大加赞扬，这种政策改革使农业生产力和农民收入得到了极大提高，促进了粮食生产的年增长率和人均农业收入的提高，粮食生产增长率由每年的0.5%提高到5%。然而事后看来，生产力的显著提高是在一段时期的农业基础设施投入基础上建立起来的，而这种投入是从二十世纪50年代就已开始的基础设施投入的延续，只是在五十年代时期高度集中的农业销售和购买政策未能使这种投入发挥作用。这次调整的经验突出说明，在一系列政策中合适的农业发展政策的重要性。

粮食安全性

二十世纪80年代中期，出于对经济危机的严重性及其广泛的影响的担心，联合国粮农组织对粮食安全进行了重新评价。粮食安全性的新概念主要侧重于3个方面：粮食的可获得性，粮食供应的稳定性，粮食供应渠道的畅通。以前对粮食安全强调的只是供给方面，即粮食的可获得性和粮食供应的稳定性，特别是通过在国家或地区级和国际级建立和保持足够的粮食储备。粮食安全性的新概念增加了对需求方面的考虑，即通过生产获得粮食或以农业收入及非收入购买粮食。

20世纪80年代还见证了另一件令人震惊的事件，即非洲的饥荒。1983年1月的粮农组织GIEW中首次报道了南非的旱灾所造成的灾难性后果，随后非洲大陆的其它地区传来更加令人震惊的消息。1984年间，本世纪该地区最严重的旱灾之一达到了顶峰，使萨赫勒地区和南非及东非的大多数国家变成了一片焦土。同时，内战进一步加剧了作物生产受灾所引起的混乱。饥饿吞噬了近20%的埃塞俄比亚人的生命，萨赫勒地区的整个传统文化处于崩溃的边缘，受影响的国家中有成千上万的人死亡。

非洲国家对这场危机的反应是慷慨的，这阻止了灾难的进一步蔓延。包括GIEWS在内的现有信息系统比12年前非洲主要粮食危机时期的作用更有效。1985年和1986年近七百万吨援助粮送到受灾地区，这在历史上是绝无仅有的。这次紧急事件的教训促使粮农组织提议采用《世界粮食安全条约》。条约要求各成员国竭尽全力根除饥饿的根源。虽然该条约和非洲粮食危机及其它地区很多国家的实际情况有特别的关系，这些国家的农业长期受到忽视，经济对外界的冲击十分脆弱，但这个条件并没有得到普遍接受。可能是由于在政府极力避免兑现承诺的时期，“条约”一词从法律意义上而言有太多的约束。

为农业发展和农村发展筹措资金

20世纪70年代早期，常常在一定特许条款的前提下，金融资源快速地流入发展中国家，20世纪80年代这种势头仍然继续。在此期间，每年这种外部资金的流入以5-6%的速度增长。常常由于松懈的财政政策导致预算赤字的增长，也加剧了国内资金的流动。1969年的《皮尔森报告》可能也加剧了这种趋势，普遍的观点是由财政资源日益流动所资助的由政府发起的投资，将加速经济增加和农业及农村的发展。但是，经历二十世纪80年代的财政危机及经济稳定和结构调整过程以后，这种资金的流动又处于停滞状态，甚至在二十世纪80年代中期出现了回落的局面。由于双边和多边捐赠援助的疲软，加上严峻的经济现实，使私有的外向型投资（FDI）完全停止，只有几个国家例外。这种情况在亚洲表现最为明显。1986年的《粮食与农业状况》辟有专门的章节对此进行了报道，标题是“为农业发展提供资金”。这一章的分析引起了对许多发展中国家经济所面临的不可持续的财政不平衡的关注，还提醒经历了30-40年公有制企业起主要作用后人们的传统思维的转变，尤其是财政政策在促进经济增长方面的转变。

另一种赞成外援在国内经济中的作用思想是基于“两缺”的论点，即：资金和外汇的慢性短缺严重地制约了发展。二十世纪80年代早期的经历对这种观念提出了严峻的挑战。平衡政府预算和项目投资是人们越来越关注的问题。本章着重将目光放在调动国内农村储蓄进行投资，而不是过分地依靠外援或松懈的财政政策上，放在搜集能够吸引私人资金而不是造成外债的政策方面，即衡平法。现在我们可以看到，这个时期标志着对制度发展的重要性作更深入的剖析的转变，包括市场劳动力、交易成本、财产权等。因此，这个时期标志着二十世纪90年代“新制度经济”的出现。

环境保护、自然资源管理和可持续发展

二十世纪80年代期间公众对这些领域极为关注。不断出现的警报信号引起人们对森林破坏、水产资源的枯竭和浪费，二氧化碳大量释放造成的温室效应，其它气体对地球温度的影响，以及一些工业气体对全世界保护性臭氧层所造成的长期破坏的关注。

本刊有两个报告表明，1987年标志着重要的进步：其中一个是《世界环境与发展委员会报告》（或称《布朗特兰德报告》），这个报告于1987年递交给联合国大会；另一个是世界环境与发展委员会的《2000年及2000年后环境展望》。这两个报告引起了人们对可持续发展概念的广泛关注。可持续发展的概念在后来的十几年中得到了进一步的发展。

1989年的《粮食与农业状况》又重新提及到1977年曾涉及的可持续发展和自然资源管理的问题，此举旨在使可持续发展的概念更具可操作性，还列出了不少可以采取具体行动的领域：

·发展中国家追求的经济目标必须是没有目前不可接受的对自身和其它国家的环境造成破坏的目标。

·必须对贫困人口的生存战略进行严格的调查，保证他们赖以生存的资源不被过量的开采。

·必须对各种类型的土地、水资源及其用途和其组合、质量制定广泛的战略。这些土地和水资源的用途包括具有高产潜力和低产潜力的土地、森林、渔业，以及遗传储备区。

·应将经济和环境作为一个整体进行考虑，充分考虑发展战略和项目实施所带来的环境恶化的代价。

在渔业和林业方面有几个重要的事件。第三次联合国海洋法大会（UNCLOS）于1982年4月末完成其工作，此时采用了《国际海洋法公约》，1982年12月签署了这项公约。这项公约和国家措施一起使海洋国家对渔业资源的管辖权扩大到海岸线200海里的海域。因此，很多沿海国家不仅获得了新的机遇同时也面临着沉重的问题、责任和挑战。

1984年中期，联合国粮农组织召开了“世界渔业管理和发展大会”，这是1982年签署新的海洋法定区域以后面对现实的第一次国际大会。这次大会是世界渔业管理进程中的一件大事。第一次使全世界几乎所有国家都走到一起来达成协议，采取全面措施，面对新的海洋属地问题，提高渔业的管理水平，将之作为粮食、就业和收入的重要来源。为了帮助发展中国家提高渔业的生产力和渔民的生活条件，1984年的“世界渔业管理和发展大会”签署了一项战略计划，及一个由五个项目组成的一揽子计划——渔业的计划管理和开发，小规模渔业的开发，水产养殖的开发，鱼类和水产品的国际贸易，促进渔业在减轻营养不良中的作用。

1985年7月，墨西哥召开的“国际森林年”大会在“社会整体发展中的林业资源”的主题下，第九次世界林业代表大会重点讨论了热带和干旱地区因贫困引起的森林退化和破坏问题。这次代表大会强调了该年度初期联合国粮农组织热带林业发展委员会采用的《热带林业行动计划》的重要性和紧迫性。

同在1985年，粮农组织大会采用了《农药分配和使用国际行动准则》。这个准则是建立农药的安全使用和管理准则和其国际准则的第一步。

贸易磋商和贸易争端

随着农业贸易国间的摩擦不断升级，1986年9月发起了《乌拉圭回合多边贸易协定》，这是国际贸易中的一件大事。这是在多边贸易协定关贸总协定（GATT）中第一次把农业放在特别重要的位置。这个宣言正式宣布乌拉圭回合的开始，各国部长一致同意“世界农业贸易急需制定更多的准则和应具有可预测性，需要预防和纠正各种限制条款，包括与结构性过剩有关的限制条款，从而减少世界农产品市场的不确定性和不稳定性及不平衡性”。

1987/88年，世界农业市场状况有了明显改观。一些重要的农产品市场从跌至多年的最低谷后的过剩状况转变为相对不足，国际农产品价格明显上升。全球很多商品的库存从以前的高水平急剧下降。1988年农业商品价格才开始有明显的回升，价格有所回升主要仅限于糖、禾谷类粮食作物、油菜籽及其制品。粮食作物价格的急剧上升是由于两年减产的缘故，尤其是1988年北美的干旱。但是在这个鼎盛时期内，即使是从名义上而言很多商品的价格仍然没有达到80年代初期的水平。从实质上来看，1988年农产品的出口价格平均只有1980年的四分之三。

社会问题

为了迎接将于1985年召开的《联合国妇女十年成就回顾与评价世界大会》，1983年的《粮食与农业状况》辟有专门的章节讨论了农场和农村地区妇女的问题，及妇女对粮食生产和销售及对乡镇企业的特殊贡献，旨在引起人们对粮食和农业领域的性别问题的广泛关注。还讨论了妇女目前所面临的困境和不平等问题，农业现代化对其生活状况的影响，以及妇女对发展的需求。还制定了进一步的目标，但并非单独为妇女开展活动和设立发展机构，而是将妇女问题纳入整个发展框架中。二十世纪80年代，随着人们对社会问题的日益关注，1984的《粮食与农业状况》辟有专门的章节讨论城市化与农业和粮食体制问题。该章分析了发展中国家的城市化所带来的问题和创造的机遇，这些问题直接关系到粮食生产和粮食向城镇人口的分配。文中指出：城市化和人口流动不是自发调节的过程，如果不加控制和引导，会导致农村人口和城镇居民的生活状况恶化。文章最后得出结论：可以通过政府采取行动，扭转农村向城镇的流动和扼制快速城市化及大城市的过渡扩大，从而减轻过快的现代化对农耕社会的负效应。这些措施可能仅仅需要取缔农业政策中的城市偏见或对这些政策加以协调。在某种情况下，可能需采取一些特别的措施，将人口从一个地区迁移到另一个地区或将就业转向农民。这些措施包括协助农民从农村向农村的流动或由政府发起的更细致的但花费更多的安置方案，以及农村工业化计划。长期的控制人口增长的政策将使局面更易控制。

附6  国际贸易规则的发展

关贸协定（GATT）于1947年生效，它是一个用于协商关税特许权和调控国际贸易的框架。关贸总协定最初被视为世贸组织（WTO）的一部分，除了处理关税和贸易专门问题，WTO还处理一系列与贸易有关的争端，如就业、发展、限制性经营行为、商品政策等。这样一来，关贸总协定就成了临时性的或过渡性的安排，直到1994年乌拉圭回合协定结束时都没有一个正式的组织框架。因此，将GATT归属于1995年1月生效的世贸组织之下。

当1947年开始实施关贸总协定时，只有23个缔约国参加，其世界贸易总额为100亿美元。到乌拉圭回合结束时，即GATT第8次贸易磋商回合时，有128个缔约国参加，世界贸易总额达50000亿美元，其中有12%为农业贸易。

GATT的贸易规则是基于以下4项原则建立的：

①互惠性  一个国家给与其它国家关税特许权，同时作为交换从其他伙伴国得到相似的关税特许权。

②不歧视政策  这包含在“最惠国待遇”（MFN）条款中，即给与任何一个缔约国的特许权将自动惠及所有缔约国。

③国民待遇  进口产品和国内生产产品享有同等待遇，禁止对进口产品采取歧视政策。

④“唯一关税”区  只能采用特许权条款中约定的普通关税调控进口。

1947年的GATT包含38项条款（或规则），贯穿以上的原则，同时还涉及其它一些问题，特别是对不平等贸易（倾销、出口补贴）和进口的突然陡升（保证条款）等贸易争端的判定和处理（贸易措施）。在农产品贸易中，其中的一些条款对GATT的总则而言也有例外。

关贸总协定中对农业的处理

不象现在的世贸组织，虽然最初的关贸总协定对农业有明确的规则，但在总则中对农产品有两个突出的例外。其一是实行进口数量限制，其二是严禁实施出口补贴。

这些对农业的例外主要由于战后大国对农业实施了广泛的价格和收入扶持计划。很多政策是30年代大萧条时期和农业收入崩溃时期制定的，同时也是许多国家对战争时期农业粮食行业的一种调控措施。可以预料的是很多措施将会继续一段时间以促进农业的复苏，抵消战后农产品价格的下滑。

到1947年时，只有少数国家仍在完全实施这种农业政策，其中，美国是主要的农业出口国，其次是澳大利亚和加拿大、阿根廷、新西兰等国家。美国于1933年制定的《美国农业调整行动纲领》允许美国当局采用关税和进口数量控制及出口补贴措施稳定国内农产品价格，其中，农业和非农业收入平等的概念仍然得到强烈的支持。同时，欧洲也刚从战争中恢复过来，粮食安全是一个关键的问题。欧洲经济共同体和其共同的农业政策（CAP）于1956年和《罗马条约》一起出台。大批发展中国家仍处在殖民统治之下或仍在争取独立。

就是在世界大多数地区（包括欧洲）普遍存在粮食不安全和一些国家的农业收入与非农业收入比例下降的大背景下才将有关农业的这两条特殊条款写入GATT。

最初制定的GATT并不限制出口补贴，也不禁止国内补贴。但在1955年时将禁止对初级产品外的农产品实施出口补贴的条款加到总协定中，同时附加条件，要求补贴国在世界出口贸易中农产品补贴不能超出公平的市场份额。

在禁止对进口数量进行限制方面，最初的GATT规则只在以下情况下才使农产品和水产品不受此规则的约束，即为了实施国内政策或为了消除暂时的过剩。采用进口数量配额制限制类似产品的生产和销售，但在1955年，美国获得了GATT弃权声明书，将进口配额甚至用于没有生产或销售限制政策的地方。这使砂糖、花生、奶制品的进口受到很大影响。这项弃权声明书一直使用到乌拉圭回合农业协定生效为止。

回顾过去，我们可以看到，很多新兴的农业贸易国利用了这种先例和关贸总协定总则中关于农业的其它的例外规则。60年代和70年代这些措施的采用，以及“灰色区”措施的广泛采用，有效地将农业排除在GATT之外，其中，“灰色区”措施包括自愿进口限制，最低出口价，不固定的征税。在乌拉圭农业磋商回合后和最后的农业协定中进口数量配额限制、国内支持和保护政策及出口补贴是关注的焦点。

乌拉圭回合所取得的成就和遗留的问题

80年代早期，由于农业中的贸易摩擦日益增多，普遍意识到世界农业贸易处于混乱状态是由于缺乏有效的GATT准则所造成的，在“温带区”粮食产品中普遍存在扭曲现象。因此，1986年发起了乌拉圭回合谈判，解决对国内农产品价值高达60%的补贴率和包含补贴战在内的日益增多的贸易争端以及工业化国家高额的农产品预算费用等问题。在磋商的过程中，各国都清楚地意识到国内农业扶持政策对贸易是有用的，但同时也需要加以规范。

针对《农业协定》中反映的问题所取得的主要结果归纳起来有以下几方面：

（1）有关国内的扶持政策  制定了有关的规则对造成贸易扭曲的措施进行了规定，同时规定了允许采用的措施。规定了实施初期的支出标准，并要求随实施期逐渐递减。世贸组织成员不能超出规定的资金扶持费用。

（2）有关市场准入  大家一致达成协议，取消一切非关税进口限制措施，只用普通关税调控进口。第一次确定了大多数农产品的关税，而且要随着实施过程而削减关税率。鉴于农业在转变为唯一关税区后的高关税水平，引入了“最低”和“当前”准入关税配额。

（3）关于出口竞争  对出口补贴达成了协议，同时制定了实施初期国内资金扶持的支出额的标准，而且要求国内扶持的支出将随着协定的实施而逐渐减少。世贸组织成员不能超过确定的补贴限制标准。

（4）对发展中国家制定了专门区别对待的临时文件，允许发展中国家延长国内补贴的实施期，允许降低补贴的比例低于发达国家，对发达国家实施的某些准则对发展中国家都有一些例外，同时承诺为发展中国家提供技术和资金援助。

（5）乌拉圭协定中还有一些对《农业协定》的补充协议和决议，如《关于改革计划对最不发达国家和纯粮食进口的发展中国家的可能负面影响的决议》，该决议针对农业改革过程中的粮食进口困境提出了相应的解决措施。

（6）制定了《关于卫生措施和植物卫生措施的应用的协议》和《关于贸易技术壁垒的协议》，保证限制贸易的规则只在需要保护人类和动物的生命安全和保护植物安全时才能使用。

总而言之，乌拉圭回合的重要贡献在于使管理农业贸易的规则与GATT规则更为接近，当然这两个规则还不完全一致。目前的规则仍然允许一些对非农产品不再适用的措施在农产品贸易中继续使用，其中最引人注目的是出口补贴。结果，乌拉圭回合协定没有明显地减少农业贸易中的扭曲现象；然而，“农业协定”为进一步改革提供了框架，而且本协定中的第20条允许通过逐渐地根本性的减少扶持和国家保护来继续进行改革。于2000年3月开始了对这些问题的磋商。

THE 1980s

·A"lost decade" for many countries in Latin America and Africa

·Economic stabilization and structural adjustment

·Famine in Africa, Environment and sustainable development

·Trade tensions and the launching of the Uruguay Round

Economic crisis and adjustment

The decade of the 1980s was largely dominated by the protracted economic recession that affected many countries - developed and developing - at various times,with negative effects on their overall and agricultural development. The State of Food and Agriculture reported,year after year, a seemingly endless process of deteriorating conditions in many developing countries, despite strenuous efforts to stabilize and recovertheir economies and the introduction of harsh policy packages. The 1990 issue drew a number of conclusions regarding this crisis period in a special chapter entitled Structural adjustment and agriculture.

A spiral of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions indeveloping countries impeded progress in agricultural trade, food security anddevelopment assistance.

The crisis emerged in the early 1980s following a sudden and unexpected change in the international economic environment, formerly characterized by abundant liquidity in financial markets and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in many developing countries. The second oil shock of 1979, unlike that of five years earlier, led many developed countries to tighten their monetary andfiscal policies, causing a severe slowdown in their economic activity. This slowdown caused a reduction in those countries'import demand, which coincided with and reinforced a sharp decline in international commodity prices.International credit suddenly dried up and capital inflows into developing countries all but ceased. Many countries that had borrowed heavily in the 1970s but had invested the funds in low-productivity projects could no longer repay their external loans. The admission by Mexico in 1982 that it lacked the necessary funds for debt repayment unleashed a global financial crisis that evolved into a deep recession in much of the developing world. Countries in Latin America that were particularly dependent on external trade and heavily indebted were especially affected. Asia was the only region that experienced no declines in per caput incomes during the decade. The crisis also led to acontraction in trade in 1982, the first in 25 years, and to low growth in trade for the rest of the decade. There was an alarming rise in the burden of external debt of the developing world.

This publication noted on various occasions that the policy response to the crisisin the developing countries had recessive elements which, at least initially,further aggravated the crisis. Countries were to stabilize their economies inthe shortest possible time, and this could only be achieved through cuts inbudgetary expenditures and imports. Structural adjustment programmes (SAPs),which were imposed on many countries by international lending institutions,became the means by which governments were forced to restore health to their economies. SAPs, including access to their lines of credit, entailed"conditionalities": reductions in state spending, currency devaluations, market liberalization and the privatization of public enterprises. They came as a severe economic and social shock to many developingcountries. Real wages were reduced together with the provision of public social services, and unemployment increased, so the urban sector was also affected.Government intervention, including social programmes, was eschewed in favour of liberal markets. The State of Food and Agriculture made thepoint that if stabilization was inevitable (to restore economic balances) and adjustment advisable (to create a sounder basis for growth), the immediate social cost of these measures was unacceptable and required particular consideration ("adjusting adjustment") by governments and financinginstitutions.

The crisis and measures to cope with it had direct effects on agriculture. Many farmers, especially in countries where agriculture was more exposed to market forces, were caught in a price squeeze with lower commodity prices coinciding with high real interest rates. Public support schemes in favour of agriculture were downscaled or abandoned. Programmes that helped the politically weak poor people were often among the first to be cut back. Economic priorities postponed the improvement of farming, marketing and input supply systems. Income losses and credit restrictions forced many farmers to reduce employment as well as the purchase of fertilizers and other production requisites. All these factors translated into deteriorating agricultural performances and rural hardship in many countries. In Latin America and the Caribbean, agricultural production growth declined from an annual average of 3.5 percent during the 1970s to 2.2 percent during the 1980s. For the other regions the impact of the crisis on agricultural output growth was less discernable in the aggregate but, in the case of Africa, the expansion in food production remained below populationgrowth.

Agricultural trade was also badly hit. For the developing countries as a whole, agricultural export growth slowed down from 15 percent yearly during the 1970s to less than 3 percent during the 1980s. This was largely due to a dramatic decline incommodity prices. In real terms, the general level of agricultural export prices in the developing countries was one third lower in 1989 than in 1980,despite a short-lived price boom in 1987/88. The collapse of commodity prices stemmed from various causes: massive indebtedness in many countries - forcing them to expand production for export while reducing imports - combined with as lack demand for agricultural exports and inadequate access to developed country markets.
At the same time, the ability of developing countries to compete for the markets of several commodities had been seriously weakened by the farm protectionist policies of industrialized countries, including heavy export subsidization. The adverse economic climate exacerbated protectionist pressures and heightened trade tensions while also impeding international efforts to strengthen multilateral arrangements related to agricultural trade, food security and development assistance. International commodity agreements,already languishing, collapsed during this period.

Far-reaching reforms in China

Yet not all programmes of radical shifts in economic and agricultural policy were to have such negative connotations. In the late 1970s, China's policy-makers introduced a series of rural sector reforms aimed at overcoming what were seen as unsatisfactory performances of agriculture. The measures introduced in 1978 initially focused on increasing agricultural production by providing farmers with improved price and income incentives, but they were quickly followed by acomplete restructuring of the agricultural sector. In less than five years,policy changes shifted the control of resources and production from the collective farming system to a household-based farming system. By the early 1980s, the government had dismantled the commune system, embraced the household responsibility system and allowed prices and markets to determine input use and production decisions.

Contemporary issues of this publication did not refer to these reforms, which it first discussed in 1985 in the context of a global mid-decade review. The State of Food and Agriculture 1985 largely credited the policy reforms in China for extraordinary improvements in its farmproductivity and rural incomes. It reported an acceleration in the annual rate of growth in food production (from an average 3 percent in 1971-80 to nearly 8percent in 1980-84) and per caput farm incomes (from 0.5 to 5 percent per year during the same period). Yet, with the benefit of hindsight, we can now understand that these remarkable productivity gains were also based on a period of investment in agricultural infrastructure, extending from the 1950s, that the prevailing centralized agricultural marketing and procurement policies had failed to exploit. This experience of adjustment underlined the importance of agricultural development policies being appropriate across a range of policy aspects, and not just with respect to one aspect.

Food security

In the mid-1980s, concern about the gravity of the economic crisis and its wide spread effects on the poor led FAO to reappraise the concept of food security. The new concept focused on three pivotal elements: food availability, stability of supplies and access to supplies. Former approaches to food security emphasized the supply side - food availability and supply stability - in particular through the building and maintenance of adequate levels of food stocks at the national and/or regional and international levels. The new concept added demand-side considerations relating to access to food through own production orexchange for earnings from agricultural or non-agricultural activities.

Thefirst half of the 1980s also witnessed another major shock: famine in Africa.In January 1983, FAO's GIEWS reported for the first time on the catastrophic consequences of drought in southern Africa. This was followed by increasingly alarming news from this and other regions of the continent. In the course of1984, one of the region's worst droughts of the century reached its peak, searing countries mostly in the Sahel and in southern and eastern Africa. In some cases, the disruptions caused by crop failures were exacerbated by civil strife. Famine engulfed an estimated 20 percent of Ethiopia's population, and entire traditional cultures in the Sahel were on the verge of collapse.Hundreds of thousands of people died in the countries affected.

The response to the crisis in Africa was generous and prevented an even greater catastrophe. The existing systems of information, including GIEWS, functioned much more efficiently than at the time of the previous major African food crisis, 12 years earlier. A historically unprecedented outpouring of food aid -about 7 million tonnes of cereals in 1985 and 1986 - arrived in stricken areas.The lessons of the emergency prompted FAO to propose the adoption of a World Food Security Compact, whereby member countries were called on to make everyeffort to uproot the causes of hunger. Although the Compact had special relevance to the food crisis in Africa as well as to the situation in many countries in other regions where agriculture had long been neglected and where the economy was vulnerable to external shocks, it was not widely supported.Possibly, the idea of a "Compact" was too legally binding at a time when governments were avoiding commitments.

Financing agricultural and rural development

Flows of financial resources to developing countries, often under concessionary terms,increased rapidly from the early 1970s and continued into the 1980s. Such external flows rose by between 5 and 6 percent per year in real (i.e. constant price)terms during this period. Flows from domestic sources, often arising from loose fiscal policies and resulting in rising budgetary deficits, also increased.This trend was possibly spurred by the Pearson Report of 1969, but also by the widely held belief that government-sponsored investments funded by increasing flows of financial resources would accelerate economic growth and agricultural and rural development. However, following the financial crises of the early 1980s and the process of economic stabilization and structural adjustment notedabove, these flows stagnated and even declined from the middle of the 1980s as aid fatigue on the part of bilateral and multilateral donors, together with harsh economic realities, took their toll - private foreign direct investment(FDI) virtually ceased, except to a few privileged countries, mainly in Asia. The State of Food and Agriculture 1986 dedicated a special chapter to this issue. Entitled Financing agricultural development,the chapter's analysis drew attention to the unsustainable financial imbalances faced by many developing economies. It also noted the shift that had taken place in conventional thinking, after 30 to 40 years of development efforts based on belief in the primal role of the public sector, and particularly its fiscal policies, in promoting economic growth.

Another line of thinking that had supported the major role of external assistance in this effort was based on the "two gap" thesis: chronic shortages of capital and foreign exchange posed severe constraints to development. The experience of the first half of the 1980s raised serious questions regarding such thinking. Balanced government budgets and investment project qualitybecame overriding concerns. The chapter drew attention to ways of mobilizing domestic rural savings for investment, instead of relying excessively on external assistance or loose fiscal policies, and to the need to search for policies that would attract private funds that did not create external debt,i.e. equity.

It may now be noted that this period marked a shift in the ongoing analysis of the development process towards a deeper appreciation of the importance to development of institutions, including markets forces, transaction costs,property rights, etc., and hence it signalled the emergence of the "new institutional economics" in the 1990s.

A new emphasis on effective institutions for developmentled to new policy recommendations.

Environmental protection, natural resource management and sustainable development

Public concern in these areas evolved considerably during the 1980s. Concern was mobilized by ever increasing alerts against forest devastation, depletion andwaste of fisheries resources, the greenhouse effect of increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases on global temperatures, or the long-term damage being done by some industrial gases to the world's protective ozone layer.

The year1987 marked an important step in the publication of two reports: the Report of the World Commission on the Environment andDevelopment ( the "Brundtland Report"), which was submittedto the UN General Assembly that year; and UNEP's Environmental perspective to the year 2000 and beyond. These reports drew wide spread attention to the concept of sustainable development, aconcept that evolved further in the following decade.

The State of Food and Agriculture 1989 revisitedt he issue of sustainable development and natural resource management, already partially addressed in 1977. It sought to make the concept of sustainable development operational and identified a number of areas for concrete actionalong the following lines:

• the developed countries must pursue economic goals without the current levels of inacceptable environmental damage to themselves and other nations;

• there must be a serious examinationof the survival strategies of the poor, to the extent that these result in overexploitation of the resources on which they depend;

• broad strategies must be devised forthe various types, combinations and quality of land and water resources and the uses they serve - low- and high-potential lands, forests, fisheries and,through these, genetic reserve areas;

• there should be greater integration of economic and environmental considerations and an adequate accounting of thecosts of environmental degradation involved in development strategies,programmes and projects.

  Several important events took place addressing issues of concern to the fisheries and forestry sectors. UNCLOS III completed its work at the end of April 1982 when it adopted the International Convention on the Law of the Sea, which was opened for signature in December 1982. This Convention, together with state practice,resulted in the expansion of the coastal state authority over fisheries resources to a distance of 200 nautical miles from the shore. Many coastal states thus acquired not only new opportunities but also weighty problems,responsibilities and challenges.

  Inmid-1984, FAO organized the World Conference on Fisheries Management and Development, which was the first international initiative to confront thepractical realities of the new legal regime of the sea, signed in 1982. The Conference was an important occasion in the evolution of governance of the world's fisheries. It was the first time that nearly all nations came togetherto reach agreements on comprehensive action to confront the practical implications of the new ocean regime and to improve management of the potential of fisheries as a vital source of food, employment and income. To assistd eveloping countries in boosting the productivity and conditions of fishers,the 1984 Conference endorsed a strategy and an integrated package of five programmes of action on: the planning, management and development of fisheries;the development of small-scale fisheries; aquaculture development;international trade in fish and fishery products; and the promotion of the roleof fisheries in alleviating undernutrition.

  In Mexico in July 1985 - the International Year of the Forest - under the theme"Forest Resources in the Integral Development of Society", the Ninth World Forestry Congress focused in particular on forest degradation and destruction arising from poverty in tropical and arid regions. The Congressemphasized the importance and urgency of the Tropical Forestry Action Plan,adopted by the FAO Committee on Forest Development in the Tropics earlier that year.

  It was also in 1985 that the FAO Conference adopted the International Code of Conducton the Distribution and Use of Pesticides. This code constituted the first steptowards the establishment of international rules for the safe handling and useof pesticides and their trade.

  Trade negotiations and issues

  An importantevent in international trade, which took place against a background ofincreasing tension among agricultural trading nations, was the launching inSeptember 1986 of the Uruguay Round of MTNs. For the first time in a GATT round of MTNs, special prominence was given to agriculture. In the Declaration that formally announced the launch of the Uruguay Round, ministers agreed that"there is an urgent need to bring more discipline and predictability to world agricultural trade by correcting and preventing restrictions and distortions, including those related to structural surpluses so as to reducethe uncertainty, imbalances and instability in world agricultural markets".

  There was a marked turnaround in the world agricultural market situation in 1987/88.Some important agricultural commodity markets shifted from a situation of surplus to one of relative scarcity and, after having fallen to their lowestlevels in many years, international prices increased significantly.
  World stocks of many commodities were sharply reduced from previous high levels. The first significant year of recovery for agricultural commodity prices in the 1980s was not until 1988, and this recovery was mainly confined to sugar, cereals and oilseeds and their products. Tropical beverage prices remained depressed. In the case of cereals, a dramatic rise in prices was theresult of two years of reduced production, with the 1988 drought in North America being of particular significance. However, for many commodities, pricesduring this boom period still did not reach the levels of the early 1980s, even in nominal terms. In real terms, export prices of agricultural commodities in1988 averaged only three quarters of their 1980 levels.

   

Social issues

In anticipation of the 1985 World Conference to Review and Appraise the Achievements of the United Nations Decade for Women, which was launched in1975, the special chapter of TheState of Food and Agriculture 1983 aimed at raising wider awareness ofgender issues in the field of food and agriculture. Entitled Women indeveloping agriculture, it discussed the particular problems of women on farmsand in rural areas, as well as their important contributions to food productionand marketing and to rural entrepreneurship. It also discussed current issuesrelating to the difficulties and inequities encountered by women, the effects of agricultural modernization on their condition and the need for development projects to reach them. A further aim was not to have development activitiesand institutions set aside for women but to "mainstream" genderissues within the overall development effort.

Also in line with the rising concern shown for social issues during the 1980s, the 1984issue had a special chapter on Urbanization, agriculture and food systems. It examined the problems and opportunities created by urbanization in developing countries as they relate to the production of food and its distribution tourban populations. It made the point that urbanization and migration were not self-adjusting processes and, if not controlled or directed to some degree,could result in deteriorating living conditions for both rural and urbanpeople. It concluded that rural-urban migration, rapid urbanization and the excessive rise of major cities could be modified by government actions so that the negative effects of overly rapid modernization on agrarian societies could be eased. Such measures might consist simply in the removal of an urban bias in agricultural policies or the coordination of such policies. In other cases,more specific measures might be required, involving movements of people from one area to another or the transfer of jobs to rural people. These measures could range from assisting spontaneous rural-rural migration to more elaborate and expensive government-sponsored settlement schemes and rural industrialization programmes. Policies designed to control the overall rate ofpopulation growth over the long term would make the situation easier to manage.