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My takes on the US Presidential Election 2016

已有 4844 次阅读 2016-4-28 19:44 |个人分类:生活点滴|系统分类:海外观察

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Now that the dust has essentially clear on the US Presidential Election  2016, we have Trump vs. Clinton as the presumed nominees of the two  respective parties (note the first half my prediction given more than six months ago has been proven to be true http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-1565-930275.html ).Here are my takes on the election using a series of well-known clichés, phrases, and personal observations (highlighted in RED) plus explanations (in BLACK) to give my take on the forthcoming election.

18 Republican candidates started.Now there is only Trump

Money talks: Trump being the only billionaire in the race can fund his own  campaign rather than rely on donations and become beholden to special  interest during the early days. He can say what he wants without fear  This is an ADVANTAGE. But don’t worry, he only lent the money to his own  campaign and expect to be paid back from the party and latter donations.

Angry populace: Trump cleverly sensed the discontent of a significant  portion of the population and tapped into this discontent by saying things other candidate afraid to say. The electorates thus like him and he distinguishes  himself from others.  

Trump is like Reagan – a great communicator and entertainer:  Nowadays Reagan is the saint of the Republican Party.In this Trump is like Reagan. Few in the race can match him for spontaneity and outspokenness.

Nothing personal, its business (politics) – The Godfather

People realize that during an election campaign all kinds of attacks are launched  on your opponents. But after the race, the party must heal their wounds  and unite together if the party is going to win. In 2008,Hillary actually placed Obama in nomination at the convention and worked hard for Obama.  We wait to see if Trump’s opponent can do the same.

Favorability vs Electability: In an election we often equate the two.However, when it comes to the general election, Trump has a lot of negatives to overcome. Not that Hillary is without negatives. But when comes to qualifications and experience, Hillary has the edge. And in a general election, you vote for the lessor of two evils, i.e., against the candidate you don’t want.

Political party is a private club: They can make up their own rules which  are why the “Stop Trump movement” is still hopeful that they can  derail  Trump if he does not achieve the 1237 delegate majority on the  first ballot. But increasingly this is a forlorn hope that isnot going to be realized.

It is better the devil you know: Trump claims that his unpredictability is a  virtue when comes to negotiating a new beginning to “make America  great again”. But this is a big risk for an electorate to take.

Tempest (Storm) in a tea pot (toilet) as in thispast Sunday New York Times (4/24/2016) opinion page. Nowadays in America sex is “Beyond binary” of  male and female. LBGTs (Lesbain, Bisexual,Gay, and Transgender)  are in the  mainstream. And which public bathrooms LBGTs should use has become a  presidential campaign non-issue. Some States has in fact passed  law dictating  the choice.

Income inequality and Opportunity inequality: This is a real issue as I discussed  in an earlier blog article http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=1565&do=blog&id=970138 .Bernie Saunders has correctly  campaigned on this theme.

Democracy is complicated, inefficient, andmessy: As this election has so far  demonstrated and remind us of the famous Churchillian saying

Democracy is the worst form of government except for all others.

The best arguement against democracy is to talk to a voter for five minutes.




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