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本人新作:中国煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布丛集特征的深入研究,即将发表

已有 1838 次阅读 2022-3-9 08:20 |系统分类:观点评述

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中国煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布丛集特征的深入研究

陈波

中国石油测井公司测井技术研究院,北京 102200

CHEN Bo

Logging Technology Research Institute of CNPC logging company, Beijing 102200, China

The in depth research on the cluster feature of time-space distribution of Chinese coalmine disasters and earthquake activities.

Abstract: The earlier research on the time-space distribution feature of coal mine disasters and earthquakes was a preliminary exploration on the base of natural earthquakes. With micro earthquakes added in and time-space analysis methods improved, this paper obtains more comprehensive time-space distribution features. On the whole, the basic knowledge on the cluster feature of coal mine disasters and earthquakes remains unchanged. The data show that the number of cluster events increases significantly and the space range of cluster series decreases sharply. The analysis shows that the high frequency of micro earthquakes and being close to the accident mine are the important reasons. The spatial range and duration of stress disturbance correspond to the spatial clustering degree and the temporal clustering degree, which is of great significance to scientific research and the production. Based on the clustering research methods, the paper obtains the reference space threshold by 27 km and the reference time threshold by 7 days, which means that once a stress disturbance event occurs in the mining area, other stress disturbance events may occur within 7 days within the surrounding 27 km; At the same time, typical cases show that the range of coal mine disasters and macro earthquakes can still reach to more than 100 km. The complete cluster samples will be released together with the paper1. The time-space thresholds obtained in the paper are for reference only.

Keywords: earthquake, coal mine disaster, clustering, mass occurrence

摘要:前期煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布特征研究是基于天然地震事件开展的初步探索。本文在前期研究基础上,添加了微地震事件,完善了时空分析方法,获得了更为全面的时空分布特征。整体上,煤矿灾害群发及伴随地震两个基本认识不变。数据显示,群发序列数量显著增多,群发范围明显变小,分析认为微地震事件频次高且距离事故矿井较近是重要原因。应力扰动作用的空间范围和持续时间对应聚类研究中的空间丛集程度和时间丛集程度,科研和生产意义重大。本文借鉴了聚类研究的分析方法,获得27公里的参考空间阈值和7天的参考时间阈值,显示煤矿附近一旦发生应力扰动事件,周边27公里范围,7天内可能会发生其他应力扰动事件;同时,典型案例显示煤矿灾害与宏观地震活动群发范围仍然可达100公里以上。完整的群发数据将随本文一起发布1,本文得出的数据仅供参考。

关键字:地震,煤矿灾害,聚类,群发


老规矩!待期刊发表之后,将在科学网博客同步公开全部研究数据。



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