A Nomogram Model for Predicting Type-2 Myocardial Infarction Induced by Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

作者：Gui-jun Jiang, Ru-kai Gao, Min Wang, Tu-xiu Xie, Li-ying Zhan, Jie Wei, Sheng-nan Sun, Pei-yu Ji, Ding-yu Tan & Jing-jun Lyu

Jiang, Gj., Gao, Rk., Wang, M. et al. A Nomogram Model for Predicting Type-2 Myocardial Infarction Induced by Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. CURR MED SCI 42, 317–326 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11596-022-2543-2

// Abstract

Objective

To examine the independent risk factors of type-2 myocardial infarction (T2MI) elicited by acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), and to establish a nomogram model for the prediction of AUGIB-induced T2MI.

Methods

A nomogram model was established on the basis of a retrospective study that involved 533 patients who suffered from AUGIB in the Department of Critical Care Medicine (CCM) or Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, from January 2017 to December 2020. The predictive accuracy and discriminative power of the nomogram were initially evaluated by internal validation, which involved drawing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calculating the area under the curve (AUC), plotting the calibration curve derived from 1000 resampled bootstrap data sets, and computing the root mean square error (RMSE). The predictive ability of the nomogram was further validated through the prospective and multicenter study conducted by the investigators, which enrolled 240 AUGIB patients [including 88 cases from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, 73 cases from Qilu Hospital of Shandong University (Qingdao), and 79 cases from Northern Jiangsu People’s Hospital)], who were admitted to the Department of CCM or EICU, from February 2021 to July 2021.