关于“两类危险源“和”轨迹交叉理论“最早的纪录

最实用的理论往往是最简单的，就像安全总是需要关注最细小的事。对事故模型（accident model），或者说事故致因理论（accident causation model），前辈学者已经提出了很多，论述了很多，不管是谁提出来的吧，还是谁翻译过来的，能指导实践，减少伤亡事故，就是无量的功德啊。

因记得我读大学时，所用教科书中的错误记述，还是中文搜索和百科词条中的误导，并且这些纰漏逐渐被印刷在英文论文中，实在不妥。这里把咨询了美国、加拿大多位退休学者，根据其记忆，概述如下内容。

中文语境中，两类危险源：一类是能量，二类是人物环原因引起能量泄露；轨迹交叉理论：人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态。

英文语境中，很少将这两个说法上升成理论，毕竟“energy+energy release“,或者“unsafe act+unsafe condition”,这样的话术是1970和1980年代使用的。公认的理论倡导者是Dr. Michael G. Zabetakis,于1977年时任美国National Mine Health and Safety Academy主任时发布的一系列安全手册，其中《Safety Manual No. 4-Accident Prevention》的第14-15页详细地阐述了他的两类危险源和轨迹交叉理论，如下图。该文献也被海因里希1980版《工业事故预防》第33页引用，并作证。

有兴趣的读者可参考Michael G. Zabetakis博士生平如下。

Age 80, of Mt. Lebanon, on Friday January 21, 2005. He will be fondly remembered for his accomplishments as a scientist and a distinguished educator. Son of a coal miner from Francis Mine, PA he achieved his recognition with his brilliance and dedication to education. He received a scholarship to Washington Jefferson College through a solution of a difficult math problem that had not been solved for many years. He earned his B.S. Degree in Chemistry and an M.A. in Physical Chemistry at the University of Pittsburgh.

Dr. Zabetakis began his career at the U S Bureau of Mines and progressed to the position of Research Director. During his service with the Bureau of Mines, Dr. Zabetakis authored more than 80 scientific publications and authored the book, "Safety in Cryogenics". In Who's Who of Science he was recognized as a world expert on combustible gasses and liquids. Dr. Zabetakis has received many awards, Meritorious Service Award of the Department of Interior and the Distinguished Service Award for Washington and Jefferson. He returned to Washington and Jefferson as the Chairman of the Math Department. Subsequently he was selected by Senator Byrd to establish the National Mine Safety Academy in Beckley, WV, where he became superintendent. Bituminous Coal Research selected him to be President at their Monroeville, PA facility when the University of Pittsburgh acquired BRC, Dr. Zabetakis became the Assistant Dean of Engineering.

When serving his country in WWII as a Naval Officer, he met and married his wife of 58 years, Rebecca. They had 2 children, Victoria Ritter and Dr. Paul Zabetakis; three grandchildren Amy, David, and Gregg; and a great granddaughter, Shear. Mike leaves a great legacy with his scientific and educational accomplishments, however he will be long remembered for his integrity and being an honest and caring person. 

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