2017年11月9日（昨日），美国国家癌症研究所（NCI）在经过4年大规模的实验研究后，在国家癌症研究所杂志（Journal of the National Cancer Institute ）上发布了研究论文“Glyphosate Use and Cancer Incidence in the Agricultural Health Study”，于是，国内的一些人又跳出来了，言之凿凿“该论文宣告草甘膦与任何癌症都没关联。”尤其以王大元同志为代表啊。

文章结果和结论如下：

Results: Among 54 251 applicators, 44 932 (82.8%) used glyphosate, including 5779 incident cancer cases (79.3% of all cases).In unlagged analyses, glyphosate was not statistically significantly associated with cancer at any site. However, amongapplicators in the highest exposure quartile, there was an increased risk of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) compared withnever users (RR = 2.44, 95% CI=0.94 to 6.32, Ptrend = .11), though this association was not statistically significant. Resultsfor AML were similar with a five-year (RRQuartile 4=2.32, 95% CI=0.98 to 5.51, Ptrend = .07) and 20-year exposure lag(RRTertile 3= 2.04, 95% CI=1.05 to 3.97, Ptrend=.04).

Conclusions: In this large, prospective cohort study, no association was apparent between glyphosate and any solid tumorsor lymphoid malignancies overall, including NHL and its subtypes. There was some evidence of increased risk of AML amongthe highest exposed group that requires confirmation.

的确，从统计学上来说很多P都大于0.05, 但是大家不都是一直在批判P值掩盖了很多真相么？从原文来看，至少在3种癌症里面具有可能的相关性，值得进一步研究。1.胰腺癌 Q1人群 RR达到了 1.80 (1.05 to 3.08)；Q2 1.69;2.非霍奇金淋巴瘤M1 RR达到了 4.25 (0.73 to 24.64)；20年加权后 RR=2.97(1.20 to 7.31),3.急性髓系白血病Q1 RR=1.62(0.60-43.8);Q2 RR=1.70(0.61-4.73); Q3 RR=1.46(0.49-4.37);Q4 RR=2.44(0.94-6.32)，居然隐隐有点随剂量升高的趋势啊[em:19:].而且5年加权和20年加权后的P为0.07和0.04

的确，大部分肿瘤是没啥关系的，但也有那么几种可能有关系，其中一种就是IARC所提出的非霍奇金NHL.

作者也说“ However, we found some evidence of a possible association between glyphosate use and AML. This association was consistent across different exposure metrics and for unlagged and lagged exposure. Given the prevalence of use of this erbicide worldwide, expeditious efforts to replicate these findings are warranted.”

王大，你把这几句吃了？

虽然说统计上的这种相关性不能简单等同于因果关系，而且混杂因素可能很多，还需要更多的实验研究去证实，但是这么明目张胆地 篡改原文作者的意思，这功夫也是没谁了。

王大一直自诩英文水平极高，看英文文献、文件无数，最喜欢怼人的方式就是：“我不告诉你，你自己找原文看去，找不到了来求我，我再告诉你”，姿态极高。而且是“义务”为转基因主粮及相关农药摇旗呐喊，说的自己是多么多么地为中国人的愚昧感到痛心疾首，说的让人感动啊，差点就相信了。可是突然发现这位老同志居然这么一本正经地胡说八道，我也是醉了。

原文地址：https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article/doi/10.1093/jnci/djx233/4590280有兴趣的去看看吧。