PROBLEM D: Is it sustainable?

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet and your solution cannot exceed 20 pages for a maximum of 21 pages.

2015 ICM Problem D

Is it sustainable?

Problem background

One of the largest challenges of our time is how to manage increasing population and consumption with the earth’s finite resources. How can we do this while at the same time increasing equity and eradicating poverty? Since the beginning of the modern environmental movement in the 1960’s, balancing human needs with the earth’s health has been a topic of considerable debate. Are economic development and ecosystem health at odds? In order to reconcile this difficult balance, the concept of sustainable development was introduced in the 1980’s.

Sustainable development is defined by the 1987 Brundtland Report as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Since its conception, sustainable development has become a goal for international aid agencies, planners, governments, and non-profit organizations. Despite this, striving towards a sustainable future has never been more imperative. The United Nations (UN) predicts the world’s population will level at 9 billion people by 2050. This, coupled with increased consumption, places a significant strain on the earth’s finite resources. Understanding that the earth is a system that connects both time and space is critical to sustainable development. Development must focus on needs (e.g., reducing the vulnerability of the world’s poor) and limitations (e.g., the environment’s ability to detoxify wastes). In 2012, the UN conference on sustainable development recognized that: “that poverty eradication, changing unsustainable and promoting sustainable patterns of consumption and production and protecting and managing the natural resource base of economic and social development are the overarching objectives of and essential requirements for sustainable development.” Decreasing personal poverty and vulnerability, encouraging economic development, and maintaining ecosystem health are the pillars of sustainable development.

Problem statement

The International Conglomerate of Money (ICM) has hired you to help them use their extensive financial resources and influence to create a more sustainable world. They are particularly interested in developing countries, where they believe they can see the greatest results of their investments.

Task 1: Develop a model for the sustainability of a country. This model should provide a measure to distinguish more sustainable countries and policies from less sustainable ones. It can also serve to inform the ICM on those countries that need the most support and intervention. Some factors may include human health, food security, access to clean water, local environmental quality, energy

access, livelihoods, community vulnerability, and equitable sustainable development. Your model should clearly define when and how a county is sustainable or unsustainable.

Task 2: Select a country from the United Nations list of the 48 Least Developed Countries (LDC) list (http://unctad.org/en/pages/aldc/Least%20Developed%20Countries/UN-list-of-Least-Developed-Countries.aspx). Using your model and research from Task 1, create a 20 year sustainable development plan for your selected LDC country to move towards a more sustainable future. This plan should consist of programs, policies, and aid that can be provided by the ICM within a country based on their demographic, natural resources, economic, social and political conditions.

Task 3: Evaluate the effect your 20-year sustainability plan has on your country’s sustainability measure created in Task 1. Predict the change that will occur over the 20 years in the future by implementing your plan in your evaluation. Based on the selected country, you may need to consider additional environmental factors such as climate change, development aid, foreign investment, natural disasters, and government instability. The ICM would like to get the “most bang for their buck”, so determine which programs or policies produce the greatest effect on the sustainability measure for your country. Identifying highly effective strategies to be implemented is the ultimate goal of the ICM to create a more sustainable world.

Task 4: Write a 20-page report (summary sheet does not count in the 20 pages) that explains your model, your sustainability measure, your sustainability development plan, and the effect of your plan based on your model and the country’s environment. Be sure to detail the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The ICM will use your report to invest in sustainability development intervention strategies for specific LDC countries. Good luck in your modeling work!

Possible Resources

UN sustainable development knowledge platform (http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org)

Ecological footprint (http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_basics_overview/)

World Bank Data (http://data.worldbank.org)

International Institute for Sustainable Development (https://www.iisd.org/sd/)

References

World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). 1987. Our Common Future. New York: Oxford University Press, 1987, 8.

United Nations. The future we want. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly. 66th Session of the General Assembly, 123rd plenary meeting; 2012 July 27. New York: UN; 2012 Sep 11 (Resolution A/RES/66/288) [cited 2013 Jul 23]. Available at: http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/66/288&Lang=E.

Other useful Sources

Bell, Simon and Stephen Morse. 2008. Sustainability Indicators: measuring the immeasurable. Earthscan, London.

Daly, Herman. 1990. Towards some operational principles of sustainable development. Ecological Economics, 2(1990) 1-6.

Kates, Robert W., Thomas M. Parris, and Anthony A. Leiserowitz. 2005. What is sustainable Development: Goals indicators, values, and practices. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, Volume 47, Number 3, pages 8–21.

本题目由数学中国翻译                        

Problembackground

问题背景

One of thelargest challenges of our time is how to manage increasing population andconsumption with the earth’s finite resources. How can we do this while at thesame time increasing equity and eradicating poverty? Since the beginning of themodern environmental movement in the 1960’s, balancing human needs with theearth’s health has been a topic of considerable debate. Are economicdevelopment and ecosystem health at odds? In order to reconcile this difficultbalance, the concept of sustainable development was introduced in the 1980’s.

我们时代的一个最大的挑战是如何处理日益增加的人口和消费与地球有限资源的之间的矛盾。我们如何在增加股本的同时，消除贫困？自从十九世纪六十年代的现代环境运动的开始，平衡人的需求与地球的健康是一个有相当大的争论的话题。经济发展和生态系统的健康是相抵触的吗？为了调节这种不平衡，可持续发展的概念在上世纪80年代被引入。Sustainable development is defined by the 1987Brundtland Report as “development that meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Sinceits conception, sustainable development has become a goal for international aidagencies, planners, governments, and non-profit organizations. Despite this,striving towards a sustainable future has never been more imperative. TheUnited Nations (UN) predicts the world’s population will level at 9 billion peopleby 2050. This, coupled with increased consumption, places a significant strainon the earth’s finite resources. Understanding that the earth is a system thatconnects both time and space is critical to sustainable development.Development must focus on needs (e.g., reducing the vulnerability of theworld’s poor) and limitations (e.g., the environment’s ability to detoxifywastes). In 2012, the UN conference on sustainable development recognized that:“that poverty eradication, changing unsustainable and promoting sustainablepatterns of consumption and production and protecting and managing the naturalresource base of economic and social development are the overarching objectivesof and essential requirements for sustainable development.” Decreasing personalpoverty and vulnerability, encouraging economic development, and maintainingecosystem health are the pillars of sustainable development.可持续发展的定义是在1987布伦特兰报告中第一次引出的，定义为“可持续发展：既满足当代人的需求又不损害后代人满足其自身需求的能力。” 自从该概念提出以来，可持续发展已成为国际援助机构，目标规划机构，政府，非营利组织的目标。尽管如此，追求一个可持续发展的未来从来没有变得更紧迫。联合国预测，世界人口将在2050年达到90亿人。这些人口再加上消费的增加，给地球上有限资源带来了显著的压力。认识到地球是一个连接时间和空间系统是可持续发展的关键。发展必须关注需要（例如，减少世界贫困人口的脆弱性）和限制（例如，环境对废物的解毒能力）。在2012年可持续发展的联合国会议上提出：“消除贫困，改变不可持续的方式进而促进可持续消费模式和生产，保护和管理经济和社会发展的自然资源基础，是可持续发展的首要目标和基本要求。“减少个人的贫困和脆弱性，鼓励经济发展，和维持生态系统健康是可持续发展的支柱。

问题陈述

TheInternational Conglomerate of Money (ICM) has hired you to help them use theirextensive financial resources and influence to create a more sustainable world.They are particularly interested in developing countries, where they believethey can see the greatest results of their investments.

国际货币联盟（ICM）雇佣你来帮助他们运用他们已有的丰富金融资源和影响力，创造一个可持续发展的世界。他们对发展中国家特别感兴趣，在那里他们相信可以获得最大的投资回报。

任务1：建立一个国家的可持续发展模型。这种模式应该提供衡量方法以区分哪些国家和政策是可持续的。它也可以告知ICM哪些是最需要支持和干预的国家。一些因素可能包括人类健康，食品安全，干净的饮用水的获取，当地环境质量，能源获取，access,livelihoods, community vulnerability, and equitable sustainable development.Your model should clearly define when and how a county is sustainable orunsustainable.生计，社会的脆弱性，和平的可持续发展。你的模型应该明确何时以及如何确定一个国家是否是可持续发展。

任务2：从联合国所列的48个最不发达国家（LDC）中选择一个国家。使用从任务1中你的模型和研究，为您选定的LDC国家创建一个20年的可持续发展计划从而使其走向一个更可持续的未来。该计划应包括项目，政策，和援助。该援助可由ICM在一国之内根据他们的人口，自然资源，经济，社会和政治条件进行提供。

任务3：评估你的20年的可持续发展计划对你的国家在任务1中创建的可持续发展措施的有效性。预测在你的评价体系下实施你的计划后发生在未来20年中的变化。基于所选择的国家，你可能需要考虑其他环境因素，如气候变化，发展援助，外国投资，自然灾害，以及政权的不稳定情况。ICM想得到“最划算”的投资，所以确定哪些项目或政策对你的国家的可持续发展措施会产生最大的效果。确定将要实施的高效的战略手段是为了ICM的终极目标——创造一个可持续发展的世界。

任务4：写一个20页的报告（摘要页不计在20页之内）来解释你的模型，你的可持续发展措施，您的可持续发展计划，根据你的模型和国家的环境情况，分析你的计划的效果。一定要详细的解释你的模型的优点和缺点。ICM将使用您的报告用于投资特定的LDC国家并进行可持续发展的干预策略。

可能用到的资源

UN sustainabledevelopment knowledge platform (http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org)

Ecological footprint(http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_basics_overview/)

World Bank Data(http://data.worldbank.org)

InternationalInstitute for Sustainable Development (https://www.iisd.org/sd/)