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中国农业洪灾损失及大尺度气象指标影响研究成果即将在Global and Planetary Change发表,发表后,会恭请各位朋友、兄弟、专家们指导、批评与指正。
Abstract:Province-wide data on flood-destroyed and flood-affected crop areas acrossChina covering a period of 1960-2013 were analyzed in this study for investigatingtheir relations with climate indices, such as ENSO, NAO, IOD, PDO and AMO. Resultsindicated that: (1) agricultural flooding in northeast and south China tendedto enhance under the influence of warm PDO and warm IOD events of the previousyears. However, agricultural flooding in southwest China tended to decrease asa result of warm ENSO events of the previous years. Agricultural floods incoastal regions of southeast China were influenced by more than one climateindex; (2) Agricultural floods of different time scales were subject todifferent degrees of correlations with climate indices. Remarkably, climateindices that were significantly correlated with agricultural floods wereusually temporally enhancing. Relations between ENSO and agricultural floodsacross China were statistically strong with good persistency. Thus, ENSO can betaken as a suitable predictor for flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areasacross China. However, AMO cannot be taken as the predictor for flood-affectedand flood-destroyed crop areas in China; (3) The combined influence of climateindices on flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas across China did not havea firm spatiotemporal pattern. However, specific groups of climate indices canhave definitive impacts on flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas overspecific regions. Findings of this study can help predict flood-affected andflood-destroyed crop areas across provinces of China, and hence plan and manageagricultural activities in China.
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