对一项技术进行成熟度评估，就是评价其在不同的环境下的成熟程度，评价该技术离最终转化到用户手上还有多远。对于企业购买计划而言，技术成熟度评估还包括评价该技术对用户需求的满足程度，并估算该投资行为预期的产出。 

 

Technology Hype Cycle: One way to look at technology maturity is through a Gartner hype cycle [1]: a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption, and business application of specific technologies. Gartner uses hype cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically follow the introduction of new technologies. A generic example of Gartner hype cycles is shown in Hype Cycles (Figure 1 below). 

 

技术成熟周期（Technology Hype Cycle）： 一种观察技术成熟度的方法是“Gartner技术成熟周期”。Gartner 使用Hype这个词是为了表示一种典型现象，即一项技术在出现的早期获得过分的“炒作”、随后出现泡沫破裂和人们的失望情绪。

 

一个完整的Gartner Hype Cycle包括五个阶段(如下图)： 

 

技术萌芽期（technology trigger）、期望膨胀顶峰（Peak of Inflated Expectations）、泡沫化的谷底期 （Trough of Disillusionment）、稳步爬升的光明期 （Slope of Enlightement）、实质生产的高原期 （Plateau of Productivity） 

 

A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation has five steps: 

 

Technology Trigger: The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch, or other event that generates significant press and interest.

Peak of Inflated Expectations: In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

Trough of Disillusionment: Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

Slope of Enlightenment: Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. 

 一般的技术成熟模型：