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杨学祥老师在博文《中国7级以上地震的季节性特征》(链接:http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-2277-799722.html)指出:根据中国1940-1981年7级以上地震目录及天文条件, 杨冬红根据1940-1981年中国7级以上地震的统计结果(表5.2)得出以下结论“中国7级以上地震有明显的季节性特征:中国1940-1981年7级以上地震,发生在1月的地震有8次,排位第二;发生在7月的地震有9次,排位第一。发生在6月地震为0,概率最小。排列次序为:7、1、2、3、4、8、5、9、10、11、12、6。这对地震预防有重要意义。”
表5.2 中国1940-1981年7级以上地震的按月分布(杨冬红,2009)
月份 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
地震次数 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
以上得到的统计规律正确吗?为此,俺对公元前70.6.1-1969.7.18间,发生在中国的Ms $\geqslant " style="font-family:symbol;font-size:19px;line-height:38px;text-indent:37px;$ 7.0级地震(表1,共计122个事件)进行了分析。由于1896年7级地震没有具体月份,该事件不在统计范围内。统计结果列于表2和图1。
表1 公元前70.6.1-1969.7.18间发生在中国的Ms $\geqslant " style="font-family:symbol;font-size:19px;line-height:38px;text-indent:37px;$ 7.0级地震
(引自http://data.earthquake.cn/data/index.jsp?id=31)
日期 | 时间 (北京时) | 纬度 (度-分) | 经度 (度-分) | 深度(km) | 震级 | 烈度 |
-70/06/01 | ::. | 36°18" | 119°00" | 7 | IX | |
143/10/00 | ::. | 34°42" | 105°18" | 7 | IX | |
512/05/21 | ::. | 39°24" | 113°18" | 7.5 | X | |
734/03/19 | ::. | 34°36" | 105°36" | 7 | IX | |
1038/01/09 | ::. | 38°24" | 112°54" | 7.25 | X | |
1125/08/30 | ::. | 36°06" | 103°42" | 7 | IX | |
1303/09/17 | ::. | 36°18" | 111°42" | 8 | XI | |
1352/04/18 | ::. | 35°36" | 105°18" | 7 | IX | |
1501/01/19 | ::. | 34°48" | 110°06" | 7 | IX | |
1515/06/17 | ::. | 26°36" | 100°12" | 7 | IX | |
1536/03/20 | ::. | 28°06" | 102°06" | 7.25 | X | |
1548/09/13 | ::. | 38°00" | 121°00" | 7 | ||
1556/01/23 | ::. | 34°30" | 109°42" | 8 | XI | |
1561/07/25 | ::. | 37°30" | 106°00" | 7.25 | IX | |
1597/10/06 | ::. | 38°30" | 120°00" | 7 | ||
1600/09/29 | ::. | 23°30" | 117°12" | 7 | IX | |
1604/12/29 | ::. | 25°00" | 119°30" | 8 | ||
1605/07/13 | ::. | 19°54" | 110°30" | 7.5 | X | |
1609/07/12 | ::. | 39°12" | 99°00" | 7.25 | X | |
1622/10/25 | ::. | 36°30" | 106°18" | 7 | IX | |
1626/06/28 | ::. | 39°24" | 114°12" | 7 | IX | |
1654/07/21 | ::. | 34°18" | 105°30" | 8 | XI | |
1668/07/25 | ::. | 35°18" | 118°36" | 8.5 | XII | |
1679/09/02 | ::. | 40°00" | 117°00" | 8 | XI | |
1683/11/22 | ::. | 38°42" | 112°42" | 7 | IX | |
1695/05/18 | ::. | 36°00" | 111°30" | 8 | X | |
1709/10/14 | ::. | 37°24" | 105°18" | 7.5 | IX | |
1718/06/19 | ::. | 35°00" | 105°12" | 7.5 | X | |
1733/08/02 | ::. | 26°12" | 103°06" | 7.5 | X | |
1739/01/03 | ::. | 38°48" | 106°30" | 8 | X | |
1786/06/01 | ::. | 29°48" | 102°06" | 7.5 | IX | |
1812/03/08 | ::. | 43°42" | 83°00" | 7.5 | ||
1830/06/12 | ::. | 36°24" | 114°12" | 7.5 | X | |
1833/09/06 | ::. | 25°12" | 103°00" | 8 | XI | |
1842/06/11 | ::. | 43°36" | 93°00" | 7 | IX | |
1850/09/12 | ::. | 27°48" | 102°18" | 7.5 | X | |
1870/04/11 | ::. | 30°00" | 99°00" | 7.25 | X | |
1879/07/01 | ::. | 33°12" | 104°42" | 8 | XI | |
1888/06/13 | ::. | 38°30" | 119°00" | 7.5 | ||
1895/07/05 | ::. | 37°42" | 75°06" | 7 | IX | |
1896/00/00 | ::. | 32°30" | 97°54" | 7 | IX | |
1902/08/22 | 11:00: .0 | 39°53" | 76°12" | 8.25 | X | |
1904/08/30 | 11:00: .0 | 31°12" | 100°54" | 7 | IX | |
1906/12/23 | 02:21: .0 | 43°30" | 85°00" | 8 | X | |
1909/04/15 | 35:49:90.0 | 25°00" | 121°30" | 7.3 | ||
1909/11/21 | 15:36:99.0 | 24°24" | 121°48" | 7.3 | ||
1910/04/12 | 82:21:30.0 | 25°30" | 122°30" | 20 | 7.75 | |
1913/12/21 | 23:37:38.0 | 24°09" | 102°27" | 7 | IX | |
1914/08/05 | 64:13:60.0 | 43°30" | 91°30" | 7.5 | VIII | |
1915/01/06 | 72:64:20.0 | 25°00" | 123°00" | 16 | 7.25 | |
1915/12/03 | 10:39:19.0 | 29°30" | 91°30" | 7 | IX | |
1916/08/28 | 14:39:42.0 | 30°00" | 81°00" | 7.5 | ||
1917/07/04 | 83:82:00.0 | 25°00" | 123°00" | 7 | ||
1917/07/31 | 11:23:10.0 | 42°30" | 131°00" | 46 | 7.5 | |
1918/02/13 | 14:07:13.0 | 24°00" | 117°00" | 7.3 | X | |
1918/04/10 | 10:03:54.0 | 43°30" | 130°30" | 57 | 7.2 | |
1919/06/01 | 14:51:20.0 | 26°30" | 125°00" | 20 | 7 | |
1919/12/21 | 43:72:40.0 | 23°00" | 121°42" | 7 | ||
1920/06/05 | 12:21:28.0 | 23°30" | 122°42" | 8 | ||
1920/12/16 | 20:05:53.0 | 36°42" | 104°54" | 8.5 | XII | |
1920/12/25 | 19:33:13.0 | 36°36" | 105°12" | 7 | ||
1922/09/02 | 31:60:60.0 | 24°30" | 122°00" | 7.6 | ||
1922/09/15 | 33:13:90.0 | 24°36" | 122°18" | 7.2 | ||
1923/03/24 | 20:40:06.0 | 31°30" | 101°00" | 7.3 | X | |
1924/07/03 | 12:40:10.0 | 36°48" | 83°48" | 7.25 | ||
1924/07/12 | 34:44:40.0 | 37°06" | 83°36" | 7.2 | ||
1925/03/16 | 22:42:17.0 | 25°42" | 100°24" | 7 | ||
1925/04/17 | 35:23:50.0 | 20°24" | 120°12" | 7.1 | ||
1927/05/23 | 63:24:70.0 | 37°42" | 102°12" | 8 | XI | |
1931/08/11 | 51:84:30.0 | 47°06" | 89°48" | 8 | XI | |
1931/08/18 | 22:21:04.0 | 47°12" | 90°00" | 7.25 | ||
1932/12/25 | 10:04:27.0 | 39°42" | 96°42" | 7.6 | X | |
1933/08/25 | 15:50:30.0 | 31°54" | 103°24" | 7.5 | X | |
1934/02/14 | 11:59:34.0 | 17°30" | 119°00" | 7.6 | ||
1934/12/15 | 95:74:00.0 | 31°18" | 89°00" | 7 | ||
1935/04/21 | 60:15:40.0 | 24°18" | 120°48" | 7.1 | ||
1935/09/04 | 93:74:20.0 | 22°12" | 121°18" | 7.2 | ||
1936/08/22 | 14:51:35.0 | 22°18" | 120°48" | 7.2 | ||
1937/01/07 | 21:20:41.0 | 35°30" | 97°36" | 7.5 | X | |
1937/08/01 | 43:54:80.0 | 35°24" | 115°06" | 7 | IX | |
1937/12/08 | 16:32:11.0 | 22°54" | 121°12" | 7 | ||
1938/05/23 | 16:21:53.0 | 18°00" | 119°30" | 8 | 7 | |
1938/09/07 | 12:03:17.0 | 23°54" | 121°42" | 7 | ||
1938/12/07 | 70:05:10.0 | 22°54" | 121°30" | 7 | ||
1940/07/10 | 13:49:55.0 | 44°00" | 131°00" | 58 | 7.3 | |
1941/05/16 | 15:14:32.0 | 23°36" | 99°24" | 7 | IX | |
1941/12/17 | 31:94:20.0 | 23°18" | 120°18" | 7 | ||
1941/12/26 | 22:48:09.0 | 22°42" | 99°54" | 7 | VIII | |
1944/03/10 | 61:25:80.0 | 44°00" | 84°00" | 7.2 | ||
1944/09/28 | 61:25:80.0 | 39°06" | 75°00" | 7 | ||
1946/01/11 | 93:32:90.0 | 44°00" | 129°30" | 58 | 7.2 | |
1947/03/17 | 16:19:41.0 | 33°18" | 99°30" | 7.7 | ||
1947/07/29 | 21:43:33.0 | 28°36" | 93°36" | 7.7 | ||
1947/09/27 | 15:70:33.0 | 24°42" | 123°00" | 11 | 7.4 | |
1948/03/03 | 17:10:02.0 | 18°48" | 119°00" | 7.2 | ||
1948/05/25 | 15:11:21.0 | 29°30" | 100°30" | 7.3 | X | |
1949/02/24 | 81:10:21.0 | 42°00" | 84°00" | 7.25 | IX | |
1950/02/03 | 73:33:90.0 | 21°42" | 100°06" | 7 | ||
1950/08/15 | 22:09:34.0 | 28°24" | 96°42" | 8.6 | ||
1951/10/22 | 53:41:80.0 | 23°42" | 121°18" | 7.25 | ||
1951/10/22 | 11:29:27.0 | 23°48" | 121°18" | 7.1 | ||
1951/10/22 | 13:43:03.0 | 23°54" | 121°42" | 7.1 | ||
1951/11/18 | 17:35:50.0 | 31°06" | 91°24" | 8 | ||
1951/11/25 | 24:71:30.0 | 22°54" | 121°30" | 7.5 | ||
1951/11/25 | 25:02:90.0 | 23°24" | 121°24" | 7.3 | ||
1952/08/18 | 21:10:90.0 | 31°00" | 91°30" | 7.5 | X | |
1954/02/11 | 83:01:50.0 | 39°00" | 101°18" | 7.25 | X | |
1954/07/31 | 90:00:00.0 | 38°48" | 104°12" | 7 | ||
1955/04/14 | 92:90:20.0 | 30°00" | 101°48" | 7.5 | IX | |
1955/04/15 | 11:40:58.0 | 39°54" | 74°36" | 7 | IX | |
1955/04/15 | 12:13:25.0 | 39°54" | 74°42" | 7 | ||
1957/01/03 | 20:48:30.0 | 43°54" | 130°36" | 59.3 | 7 | |
1957/02/24 | 42:61:40.0 | 23°54" | 121°36" | 3.5 | 7.2 | |
1958/03/11 | 82:60:60.0 | 25°06" | 124°24" | 12 | 7 | |
1959/04/27 | 44:03:80.0 | 24°47" | 122°42" | 13 | 7.5 | |
1959/08/15 | 16:57:03.0 | 22°11" | 121°08" | 7 | ||
1963/02/13 | 16:50:07.0 | 24°24" | 122°12" | 7 | ||
1963/04/19 | 15:35:21.0 | 35°42" | 97°00" | 7 | VIII | |
1964/01/18 | 20:04:41.0 | 23°12" | 120°36" | 7 | ||
1966/03/13 | 20:04:41.0 | 24°12" | 122°42" | 4.2 | 7.8 | |
1966/03/22 | 16:19:27.0 | 37°30" | 115°06" | 7.2 | X | |
1969/07/18 | 13:24:50.0 | 38°12" | 119°24" | 3.5 | 7.4 | |
共计 122 个事件。 |
表2 公元前70.6.1-1969.7.18间, Ms $\geqslant " style="font-family:symbol;font-size:19px;line-height:38px;text-indent:37px;$ 7.0级地震的月分布频次
月份 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
地震次数 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 13 |
图1 公元前70.6.1-1969.7.18间, Ms $\geqslant " style="font-family:symbol;font-size:19px;line-height:38px;text-indent:37px;$ 7.0级地震的月分布频次
可看出排列次序为:7、8、12、4和9、3、6、1、2和10、5、11。除7月份排名第一和杨老师的结果相同外,其它月份不同。6月份发生的大震还是不少的。
若根据统计分析得出靠谱的结论,得需要一定样本数量的时空数据。样本数量越大,统计分析得到的结论才有一定可信度。
研究潮汐组合和地震的关系,得拿自有文献记载以来的全球地震目录数据为依托,这样通过分析得到的某些结论才有一定置信度。否则,统计分析会成为“橡皮泥”。国外有个学者曾经一针见血地指出“统计分析常常是有诡计的。”学者们一不留神,就会钻入“橡皮泥”围成的陷阱里而不能自拔。
若把全球的地震目录数据拿出来分析,估计大震们的按月分布频次会差不多,和玩“掷骰子”一样。感兴趣的童鞋们不妨一试。
研究强震的发生规律,得从物理机制入手。统计分析只是数据处理的手段,想靠此把规律搞明白,此路是不通滴!若不信,您就继续钻研。
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