环境压力下的长期经济增长: 最优路径 

           Long-Term EconomicGrowth under Environmental Pressure: An Optimal Path

作者：戴锋( F. Dai), P. LI, L. Liang

期刊：Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, 2016, (59)1: 15-24.

ISSN: 1062-9769；DOI:10.1016/j.qref.2015.03.008

摘要(中、英文)：

基于进退过程模型(advance-retreat course, ARC；Dai et al., 2013a and Dai et al., 2013b)模型, 本文给出了环境压力下的经济长期增长模型. 运用该模型, 可以解释经济趋同与偏离; 构建了关于传统产业、新兴产业及实际总产出的经济长期最优增长模型; 推导出. 最优增长核算方程; 指出了经济长期增长和结构变革的最优路径，对美国和中国的经济增长能够进行了实证分析。本文的结论包括“新兴产业是经济长期增长的主要产出贡献者” 、“经济多样化能够提高产出并推动经济长期增长”等, 本文给出的政策建议可以避免经济奔溃.

This paper  presents a model, based on the advance-retreat course (ARC) model (Dai et al., 2013a and Dai et al., 2013b), of long-term economic growth under  environmental pressure. The model is used to explain economic convergence and  divergence; construct an optimal long-term growth model for basic, emerging  and real total output; derive an optimal growth accounting equation; indicate  the optimal paths of long-term growth and economic structure change; analyze  empirically the growth for U.S. and China. Among the findings are that  emerging industries contribute significantly to real output in the long term;  that economic diversification can increase real output and promote long-term  growth. The paper suggests policy orientations that are needed to avoid economic  collapse.