论文40：『Socio-Economic Development Model Based on Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An analysis on U. S. economy in recent 70 years』, International Journal of Social Economics, 38(5), 2011, 416-437.

摘要：Taking the environmental pressure into account, the paper presents the concept and analytic model of stochastic advance-retreat course (SARC) to study socio-economic development. Based on SARC model, we can describe and analyze the features of process and stages of socio-economic development. The application methods of SARC model are discussed in the average mode and golden mode. Some important conclusions are as, the cyclical fluctuations in socio-economic development is caused by the environmental pressure, innovation growth too fast or too many innovations may cause the social and economic fluctuations, rapid growth brings with it the weak persistence, and so on. Finally, the empirical researches have been made on the data of USA GDP (chained) price index, and the results show that the SARC model can describe U.S. economic development in recent 70 years, and some economic development strategies are given.

附件：Socio-Economic Development Model.pdf

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