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Interim Summary of COVID-19

已有 2484 次阅读 2020-3-29 08:44 |系统分类:论文交流

Draft: 25 Feb 2020, Version 1: 8 Mar 2020, Version 2: 24 Mar, Version 3: 26 Mar, Version 4: 28 Mar (current)

Interim Summary of COVID-19

Xiu-Ju George Zhao Ph.D.1,2

1Team of Neonatal &Infant Development, Health and Nutrition NDHN, School of Biology and Pharmaceutical Engineering, Wuhan Polytechnic  University

Biological and Chemical Building Room 512, 1 South Park Road, Changqing Garden, Wuhan, Hubei 430023, P. R. China

2 School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University 430071

 

Tel. and Fax: +862783956793

E-mail: dzrdez@163.com

 

Word Count: 563


 

Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) [1-5], the number of total confirmed cases worldwide was 214 002 (China81 237, Hubei 67 707, Wuhan 49 912), and of those, 8 837 died (China3 250, Hubei 3 130, Wuhan 2 496), as of 18 March 2020 [Table 1, Figure 1]. The number of daily new confirmed cases from 12 February to now outside Hubei was less than the number of new recovered, the number of new confirmed from 15 February to now outside Wuhan was less than the number of new recovered, and the number of new confirmed from 20 February to now in Wuhan was less than the number of new recovered [new confirmed in Wuhan on 18 March: 0]. 19 SARS-CoV-2 test products were approved, and more than 200 clinical trials were being carried out. Favipiravir was approved, and chloroquine phosphate and arbidol were recommended in the sixth and seventh version ofChina's COVID-19 treatment protocol. The scale of Wuhan's hospital beds peaked seventy thousand. However, 3 019 medical staff were infected (1 716 confirmed, 5 deaths). In late January and the first half of February, there was a shortage of medical materials, and the participation rate of Chinese medicine was below 40% in Wuhan, Hubei. The public health system focused on prevention rather than emergency response. The coordination of scientific research, clinical trails and disease prevention and control was not enough. The basic research on infectious pathogens was weak and unsustainable. It needs systematic and multidisciplinary integration to form a public health system from top to the bottom vertically (wildlife [agriculture and forestry] - pathogenic organisms [medical biology] - infectious diseases and treatment [clinical medicine and pharmacy]), and from edge to edge horizontally [statistics - economics - medicine - social management].

 

The public health system focusing on prevention & control and emergency response of infectious diseases is the core content of World Health Organization and Health China Action, and also of the health security system. Improving the supply quality and scientific research in public health may promote the efficient and sustainable development of economy (30% of the investment in road is converted into Gross Domestic Product; 60% of the investment in health care is converted into GDP; the increase of medical facilities and personnel has a leverage effect). An independent public health system built by a central or federal government is a strong guarantee for a nation in the face of particularly major public health emergencies. Infectious diseases are the common disasters of mankind. In the short term, the international community should combine western and traditional medicines targeting efficacy and real world, combat against unproved statements (e.g. American soldiers with malaria attending Wuhan Military World Game in October 2019, carried SARS-CoV-2  in the incubation period) and refer to China owing to its leading role in the experience of fighting COVID-19 (Table 2, Figure 2). In the long run, the world should UNITE as the Community of Shared Future for Mankind, CONSERVE the ecological balance and biodiversity, TUNE the preparedness and control of infectious diseases and socioeconomic developments, STRENGTHEN the capacity of public health colleges and research institutions, INTEGRATE economics, statistics, artificial intelligence, biology, agriculture, medicine and management, and LINK research institutions, hospitals and centers for disease prevention and control. "We are waves of the same sea, leaves of the same tree, flower of the same garden." (Seneca)

 

Competing interest statement: No.

It was not appropriate or possible to involve patients or the public in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or dissemination plans of our research.

Dissemination to study participants and or patient organisations is not applicable.

References

1. National Health Commission. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202003/0fc43d6804b04a4595a2eadd846c0a6e.shtml. 19 March, 2020

2. World Health Organization.  https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019. 19 March, 2020

3. Xintian Xu, et al. Evolution of the novel coronvirus from ongoing Wuhan outbreak and modeling of its spike protein for risk of human transmission. Sci Chin Life Sci. 2020, 63: 457-460. DOI: 10.1007/s11427-020-1637-5

4. Chaolin Huang, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronvirus in WuhanChina. Lancet 2020,395(10223):497-506. DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30183-5.

Na Zhu, et al. A novel coronvirus from patients with pneumonia inChina, 2019. N Engl J Med. 2020,382(8):727-733. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001017

Table 1. COVID-19 global pandemic report.

Territory

Active Cases

Total Confirmed

Total Deaths

Total Recovered

Globe

121 260

214 022

8 837

83 925

OutsideChina

113 820

132 785

5 587

13 378

China

  7   440

 81   237

3 250

70 547

Hubei

  6   992

 67   800

3 130

57 678

Wuhan

  6   744

 50   005

2 496

40 765

Europe

 80   477

 89   368

4 100

 4   791

Asia

 29   729

112 750

4 569

78 452

N. America

  8   588

  8   804

    130

      86

S. America

  1   182

  1   194

      9

       3

Oceania

      567

      616

      6

      43

Africa

      520

      578

     16

      42

Diamond

      197

      712

      7

     508

Data as of 18 March, 2020; UTC+8. Source: Ali Health.


Table 2. Timeline of COVID-19

Management and others

Date

Science and technology


Winter2019

US: Seasonal influenza


26Dec2019

Collecting COVID-19 specimen


30Dec2019

Testing COVID-19 specimen


2Jan2020

Identifying the pathogen


 3Jan2020

1st version of

COVID-19   treatment protocol


 5Jan2020

Isolating SARS-CoV2; Sequencing


10Jan2020

Releasing the genome


11Jan2020

Submission to WHO

Wuhan command center established

20Jan2020

COVID-19 as category B and category A   management


21Jan2020

Remdesivir patent application for   COVID-19 by Wuhan Institute of Virology

Hubei level 2   emergency response

22Jan2020

3rd version of

COVID-19   treatment protocol

Wuhan lockdown

3 provinces level 1 emergency

23Jan2020

Wuhan Huo Shen Shan Hospital constructed

15 provinces level 1 emergency including Hubei

24Jan2020


12 provinces level 1 emergency

25Jan2020

Wuhan Lei Shen Shan Hospital constructed

Extension of vacation to 2 Feb

26Jan2020

4 SARS-CoV-2 test kits approved


27Jan2020

4th version of COVID-19 treatment protocol; US COVID-19 discharge treated by   Remdesivir


28Jan2020

2 SARS-CoV-2 test kits approved

Last province level 1 emergency

30Jan2020

WHO: Public Health Emergency of   International Concerns


31Jan2020

1 SARS-CoV-2 test kit approved

Extension of vacation in Hubei to 13 Feb; CNY 300b   re-lending

1Feb2020



2Feb2020

Huo Shen Shan    Hospital operated: 1k beds for severe COVID-19 patients


4Feb2020

5th version of

COVID-19   treatment protocol

WHO: USD 675m needed for preparedness and   response

5Feb2020

Huo-Yan Laboratory test capacity: 10k

3 module hospitals operated: 4 400 beds


7Feb2020

11k plus medical experts aid Wuhan incl. 3k ICU   experts. Of ICU patients, 60+ years account for 85%


11Feb2020

COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 named


18Feb2020

6th version of

COVID-19   treatment protocol


22Feb2020

3 SARS-CoV-2 test kits approved


24Feb2020

Press conference of WHO-China joint   mission on COVID-19


27Feb2020

4 SARS-CoV-2 test kits approved


3Mar2020

7th version of

COVID-19   treatment protocol


4Mar2020

WHO: decision on deleting "people   should not use traditional medicines"


6Mar2020

1 SARS-CoV-2 test kit approved


11Mar2020

1 SARS-CoV-2 test kit approved

WHO: COVID-19 pandemic

US CDC:   some Americans died from influenza were tested positive SARS-CoV-2


12Mar2020

1 SARS-CoV-2 test kit approved

WHO: COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund

13Mar2020



16Mar2020

2 SARS-CoV-2 test kits approved

Lockdown: 11 nations

17Mar2020


Emergency: 43 nations

18Mar2020


UTC+8.


 Figure 1. Omitted.


Chinese medicine



Chinese medicines

Module hospital in Wuhan

Confirmed

Converted to severe

With

JiangXia

564

0

Without

Another

330

32 cases

Lung   Cleaning and Detoxifying Decoction

Medical treatment periods, universal

1261 confirmed: 1102 recovered, 29   negative , 71 alleviated

Discharge followed up

Chinese medicine

2.77 % positive (n=325)

VC and VE placebo

15.79 % (n=95)

Confirmation rate of suspected cases in   isolation centers

90 % on 28 Jan

Intervention on 2 Feb

30% on 6 Feb

3% on 5 Mar

Isolation, social distancing



Wuhan lockdown ~ 60 days

Hubei lockdown 57   days

Other provinces lockdown ~ 30 days

Non-touch dining

Internet learning or video conference   with ~ 10 m   persons

Disruptive technologies

Artificial intelligence, block chain,   cloud computation, big data

Health quick response code by Ali or   WeChat for checking

District-specific control strategy

Unmanned aerial vehicle

Medical robots

Negative   pressure isolation ambulance

Infrared thermometer

4G Intelligent Helmet

Alert-alignment-search-feedback   circuit

Devotion, collaboration



ECMOs: Wuhan   80, Hubei 100 (China 400, globe 1200)

42k medical experts aiding Hubei

CNY150b investment

CNY800b loss

CNY6b donation (Hubei, 15 Mar)

13 Module   hospitals in Wuhan: Communities, 12k confirmed mild/moderate   cases, 5 Feb - 10 Mar

Joint prevention and control mechanism,   whole transportation-quarantine-sorting-treat-isolation

Mutual   aids e.g. Italy-China,Japan-China, Czechia-China, WHO-China; WE   ARE TOGETHER.

 

Figure 2. Characteristics ofChina's treating COVID-19




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