假设事件Ai为第i封信正确地放进其信封 (i=1,2,3,4,5,6)。
P(Ai):事件Ai发生的概率。于是
P(Ai)=1/6;
P(A1和A2)=1/6 * 1/5=1/30;
P(A1和A2和A3)=1/120;
P(A1和A2和A3和A4)=1/360;
P(A1和A2和A3和A4和A5)=1/720;
P(A1和A2和A3和A4和A5和A6)=1/720;
至少有一封信正确地放进其信封的事件概率为
P(A1或A2或A3或A4或A5或A6)=
6 * P(Ai)
-6C2 * P(A1和A2)
+6C3 * P(A1和A2和A3)
-6C4 * P(A1和A2和A3和A4)
+6C5 * P(A1和A2和A3和A4和A5)
-6C6 * P(A1和A2和A3和A4和A5和A6)
=1-1/2!+1/3!-1/4!+1/5!-1/6!
=(720-360+120-30+6-1)/720
=455/720
=91/144
=63.19%
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