摘要

1. 未来几年内 65% 的风险投资公司将倒闭。

2. 凭借 2010 年代的出色回报，风险投资一路高歌猛进。

3. 2021 年，1577 家不同的风险投资公司共筹集了 1830 亿美元。

4. 但与此同时，创办一家初创公司的成本却越来越低。广泛可用的工具、全球劳动力和便捷的（在线）分销意味着创办一家 SaaS 公司从未如此简单或便宜。

5. IPO 窗口关闭了——公司无法上市。因此，风险投资公司无法通过大型 IPO 赚钱。

6. 并购也没有发生（至少对卖方来说价格不高）。因此，风险投资公司无法通过出售公司来赚钱。

7. “我们决定不再筹集另一只基金。” 翻译：他们可能做不到。更多的公司会说他们“不再投资”；合伙人“决定担任运营职务”。董事总经理正在退休。

8. 2023 年，597 家风险投资公司筹集了 810 亿美元。这分别下降了 63% 和 56%（与 2021 年相比）。

9. 风险投资的狂欢派对结束了。或者至少这一章结束了......

10. 超过 50% 的现有公司将无法生存。这意味着，如果您是在这种环境下筹集资金的初创公司首席执行官或运营商，您需要了解游戏规则已经改变。

11. 不要相信一些创始人仅凭 20 万美元的 ARR 和一份好牌就筹集了 3000 万美元的故事。风险投资公司用巨额支票救助经营不善的企业的时代已经结束。

12. 筹集资金的最佳时机是您不需要它的时候。深入挖掘以度过冬天。

以上是我的“老领导” Jonathan前天在LinkedIN关于硅谷风投下行的一种描述。很清醒。

听上去似乎奇怪，大模型爆发以后很快风投成为下行，这其实还是因为 technology adoption curve 本身现在在落地应用上遭遇挑战，整体处于下行，无论中美。

大模型的到来使得初创的启动变得容易，这样僧多粥少，筹集风投就更加困难。

我这个老板一共做过4家初创，第一家是他初出茅庐时候做的 Netbase，我们相处非常好。现在这第四家SAAS创业很扎实，势头很好，有望成为硅谷独角兽。他也历练成熟多了。

他是第一个在LinkedIn上给我写推荐的人，一直保持联系。

Jonathan Spier

Last Friday, I had dinner with a famous VC investor who told me 65% of VC’s will go out of business in the next few years. I believe him. Here’s what that means for startup leaders waiting on their Series A/B/C:

Those of us in startups tend to think VCs are at the top of the food chain.

They aren’t.

VCs are businesses too.

They raise money from THEIR investors (aka LPs).

And their job is to make a return for those LPs.

With outstanding returns in the 2010s, VC was on a win streak.

Many more funds were born.

And existing funds got much larger.

In 2021, 1577 different VC firms raised a total of $183 billion.

But at the same time, costs to launch a startup have gotten cheaper.

Widely available tools, global workforce, and easy (online) distribution mean it’s never been easier, or cheaper, to start a SaaS company.

So how are VCs supposed to deploy all that money they’ve raised?

They can’t.

There is too much money chasing too few deals.

Make no mistake, for VCs, it’s a fatal mix.

The IPO window is closed – companies can’t go public.

So VCs aren’t making money with big IPOs.

M&A isn’t happening (at least not at good prices for sellers).

So VCs aren’t making money by selling their companies.

If VCs aren’t making money, they can’t return capital to their LPs.

They are in trouble.

Of course, VCs rarely go out of business the way their companies might.

Reputations are at stake, so change happens quietly.

But it’s the same result.

It’s already happening.

Listen carefully, and you’ll hear VCs saying:

"We have decided not to raise another fund.”

Translation: they probably can’t.

More firms will say that they are “no longer investing”

Partners are “deciding to take operating roles.”

Managing Directors are retiring.

In 2023, 597 VC firms raised $81B.

That’s down 63% and 56% (vs. 2021).

The VC party is over.

Or at least this chapter is...

The select few at the top of the VC list will have their pick of deals.

The great business builders will choose their spots and continue to thrive.

I’ve been lucky to work with a few of those and am certain that their expertise and relationships will carry them through.

But over 50% of existing firms, won’t survive.

That means if you're a startup CEO or operator raising money in this environment, you need to understand the game has changed.

Don’t buy the stories of some founder that raised $30M with $200k ARR and a good deck.

The era of VCs bailing out bad businesses with huge checks is over.

Many of the VCs won’t even be around in a few years.

There is only one strategy that works in this economy.

Focus.

Nail your ICP.

Delight your customers.

Get profitable to control your financial destiny.

The best time to raise money is when you don’t need it.

It’s a harsh economy out there.

Burrow down deep to survive the winter.

Remember:

Tough markets make strong companies.