http://www.adearth.ac.cn/article/2020/1001-8166/1001-8166-2020-35-6-618.shtml

李侠祥，刘昌新，王芳，等. 中国投资对“一带一路”地区经济增长和碳排放强度的影响［J］. 地球科学进展，2020，35（6）：618-631. DOI：10. 11867/j. issn. 1001-8166. 2020. 051.

Li Xiaxiang，Liu Changxin，Wang Fang，et al. The impact of China's investment on economic growth and carbon emission intensity in the "Belt and Road"［J］. Advances in Earth Science，2020，35（6）：618-631. DOI：10. 11867/j. issn. 1001-8166. 2020. 051.

Increasing green investment is one of the important ways to promote sustainable development in the Belt and Road (B&R) region. We predicted the effects of China’s investments on the CO2 emission patterns in B&R areas under the scenarios of No-Investment (NIS), Business-as-usual Investment (BIS) and the Strengthening Investment Scenario (SIS) based on the improved Solow model and a CO2 intensity model. The results reveal that the GDP of B&R region will cumulatively increase by 45.16 and 97.02 trillion USD, and the CO2 will cumulatively decrease by 44.16 and 79.47 Gt by 2100, respectively, under BIS and SIS, compared with NIS. The cumulative decrease of CO2 emissions, 44.16 and 79.47 Gt, will lead to global CO2 concentration decrease by approximately 2.41 mL/m3 and 4.33 mL/m3 in 2100, respectively. Regionally, China’s investments have the most obvious role in promoting the economic development and CO2 emission reductions of Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas. In the short term (2017-2050), China's investment may lead to a small increase in CO2 emissions in Southeast Asia and its surrounding areas, India and the Central and Eastern Europe, but in the long term (2017-2100), China's investment will promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in all regions, especially in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas and the Middle East Central Asia region. This shows that China's investment is conducive to promoting the green development of the B&R regions.

增加绿色投资是促进“一带一路”地区实现可持续发展的重要途径之一。通过设计中国对“一带一路”地区无投资、固定投资和加强投资3个情景，利用改进的索罗模型和碳强度变化模型，计算并对比分析了“一带一路”地区7个区域国内生产总值和CO2排放量变化的差异。结果表明，中国投资有利于“一带一路”地区的经济发展和CO2减排，且随着投资的增加，促进作用也越明显。相对无投资情景，截至2100年，在固定、加强投资情景下，“一带一路”地区国内生产总值分别累计增加45.16万亿和97.02万亿美元，CO2累计排放量分别减少44.16 Gt和79.47 Gt，这将导致2100年全球大气CO2浓度下降2.41和4.33 mL/m3。从区域上看，虽然在短期内（2017—2050年），中国投资可能导致东南亚及周边地区、印度和中东欧的CO2排放量小幅增加，但长期（2017—2100年）结果显示，其对各区域CO2排放量下降均有促进作用，特别是对东南亚及周边地区和中东—中亚地区的减排促进作用最明显。这表明中国投资有利于促进“一带一路”地区的绿色可持续发展。