博文
【词语别解】共识≠真理
|||
马德
共识是当下的一个热门词儿，比如全球变暖的问题，据报道，这已经是全球达成的一项共识。
遗憾的是，共识不见得就是真理，共识也不必然地会成为科学的论断。有的时候，迷信和信仰更容易成为支撑共识的基础。大家一定记得，许多年以前，“宁要社会主义的草，不要资本主义的苗”也曾经是许多人的“共识”呢。
其实，有的时候，共识恰恰会成为扼杀科学的屠刀。众所周知，哥白尼的“日心说”就曾经长期受当时“地心说”的“共识”压制，被视为异端邪说，乃至布鲁诺为之献出了宝贵的生命，伽利略也遭受不白之冤达300多年之久！
共识，往往是以一种评判标准的形式而存在的，而科学的灵魂在于创新。标准与创新、共识与标新立异之间的冲突，是科学发展中一个永恒的矛盾。
遗憾的是，共识不见得就是真理，共识也不必然地会成为科学的论断。有的时候，迷信和信仰更容易成为支撑共识的基础。大家一定记得，许多年以前，“宁要社会主义的草，不要资本主义的苗”也曾经是许多人的“共识”呢。
其实，有的时候，共识恰恰会成为扼杀科学的屠刀。众所周知，哥白尼的“日心说”就曾经长期受当时“地心说”的“共识”压制，被视为异端邪说，乃至布鲁诺为之献出了宝贵的生命，伽利略也遭受不白之冤达300多年之久！
共识，往往是以一种评判标准的形式而存在的，而科学的灵魂在于创新。标准与创新、共识与标新立异之间的冲突，是科学发展中一个永恒的矛盾。
科学发现和发明的过程就是对原有标准或“共识”的突破的过程，因此也必然受到原有的共识的限制或压制。这也许是科学发展中不可避免的悲剧。但是，没有由共识以及由此所建立的标准，科学的成果就无法推广成为人类共同的财富。而另一方面，如果没有通过共识所建立的“标准”的评判和约束，科学的成果就无法积累，人类就无法在科学的基础上扎扎实实地前进，而科学的探索也有可能成为肆意妄为的蛮干，而给社会带来灾难。
我们所谈论的共识，最终总是会转化为一种约束，或者说是一种“权力”。斯蒂芬·茨威格在《异端的权利》一文中说过：“每一个国家，每一个时代，每一个有思想的人，都不得不多次确定自由和权力间的界标。因为，如果缺乏权力，自由就会退化为放纵，混乱随之发生；另一方面，除非济以自由，权力就会成为暴政。”
我今天之所以因“共识”而引发一番感慨，是因为最近在网上读到一个声明，这是美国的一批科学家就全球变暖问题而对奥巴马总统发表的声明。这份声明分明是一种挑战，矛头所指，不仅仅针对奥巴马总统在全球变暖问题上的观点，更是针对在这个问题上的“全球共识”。
我不是气候学家，本文也无意讨论在气候变化问题上的孰是孰非，我只是想把这份声明介绍给大家，让我们见识见识科学家应该有一种什么样的气概，什么才是真正的科学精神。
说明：这个声明发表于美国凯托研究会（Cato Institute）的官方网站（http://www.cato.org/）的一个专栏网页，总的题目是《气候变暖的真相》（Climate Change Reality）。
附1、专栏的前言：
President Obama says that "few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than fighting climate change. The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear." In fact, many scientists disagree with the "facts," their certainty, and their interpretation. Over 100 of them have signed the statement that appears in the Cato Institute's newspaper ad.
奥巴马总统说“应对气候变化，毫无疑问是美国和世界所面临的最严峻的挑战。这已被科学证明是确定无疑的现实。”但是在实际上，许多科学家对这个“现实”确定性的认可和解释并不一致。有100多名科学家签署了一份声明，并以美国凯托研究会的名义在报纸上公布。
我们所谈论的共识，最终总是会转化为一种约束，或者说是一种“权力”。斯蒂芬·茨威格在《异端的权利》一文中说过：“每一个国家，每一个时代，每一个有思想的人，都不得不多次确定自由和权力间的界标。因为，如果缺乏权力，自由就会退化为放纵，混乱随之发生；另一方面，除非济以自由，权力就会成为暴政。”
我今天之所以因“共识”而引发一番感慨，是因为最近在网上读到一个声明，这是美国的一批科学家就全球变暖问题而对奥巴马总统发表的声明。这份声明分明是一种挑战，矛头所指，不仅仅针对奥巴马总统在全球变暖问题上的观点，更是针对在这个问题上的“全球共识”。
我不是气候学家，本文也无意讨论在气候变化问题上的孰是孰非，我只是想把这份声明介绍给大家，让我们见识见识科学家应该有一种什么样的气概，什么才是真正的科学精神。
说明：这个声明发表于美国凯托研究会（Cato Institute）的官方网站（http://www.cato.org/）的一个专栏网页，总的题目是《气候变暖的真相》（Climate Change Reality）。
附1、专栏的前言：
President Obama says that "few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than fighting climate change. The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear." In fact, many scientists disagree with the "facts," their certainty, and their interpretation. Over 100 of them have signed the statement that appears in the Cato Institute's newspaper ad.
奥巴马总统说“应对气候变化，毫无疑问是美国和世界所面临的最严峻的挑战。这已被科学证明是确定无疑的现实。”但是在实际上，许多科学家对这个“现实”确定性的认可和解释并不一致。有100多名科学家签署了一份声明，并以美国凯托研究会的名义在报纸上公布。
附2、声明正文译稿：
“应对气候变化，毫无疑问是美国和世界所面临的最严峻的挑战。这已被科学证明是确定无疑的现实。”
— 当选总统贝拉克-奥巴马，2008年11月19日
恕我们直言，总统先生：
事实并非如此
（翻译 马德）
我们，在下列签名的科学家，就气候变化问题被严重夸大的观点发表郑重声明。
1、地球表面气温变化在过去一个世纪并没有连续而显著的变化从而导致最近十年期间的全球变暖。
2、控制人口增长和资源的利用，并没有能够减轻气候灾害事件造成的严重损失。
3、由计算机模拟的气候模型所作出的地表气温急剧变化的悲观预测，并不符合近期若干年来的实际状况。
4、总统先生，您对于气候变化方面的科学研究的情况和在这个领域的科学论争的了解与表述流于简单，这是不能为我们所接受的。
（签名略）
附3、声明英文原文：
"Few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than combating climate change.The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear."
— PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA, NOVEMBER 19 , 2008
With all due respect
Mr. President,
that is not true.
We, the undersigned scientists, maintain that the case for alarm regarding climate change is grossly overstated. Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for over a decade now.1,2 After controlling for population growth and property values, there has been no increase in damages from severe weather-related events.3 The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.4 Mr. President, your characterization of the scientific facts regarding climate change and the degree of certainty informing the scientific debate is simply incorrect.
- Syun Akasofu, Ph.D, University Of Alaska
- Arthur G. Anderson, Ph.D, Director Of Research, IBM (retired)
- Charles R. Anderson, Ph.D, Anderson Materials Evaluation
- J. Scott Armstrong, Ph.D, University Of Pennsylvania
- Robert Ashworth, Clearstack LLC
- Ismail Baht, Ph.D, University Of Kashmir
- Colin Barton Csiro, (retired)
- David J. Bellamy, OBE, The British Natural Association
- John Blaylock, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired)
- Edward F. Blick, Ph.D, University Of Oklahoma (emeritus)
- Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, Ph.D, University Of Hull
- Bob Breck Ams, Broadcaster Of The Year 2008
- John Brignell, University Of Southampton (emeritus)
- Mark Campbell, Ph.D, U.S. Naval Academy
- Robert M. Carter, Ph.D, James Cook University
- Ian Clark, Ph.D, Professor, Earth Sciences University Of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
- Roger Cohen, Ph.D, Fellow, American Physical Society
- Paul Copper, Ph.D, Laurentian University (emeritus)
- Piers Corbyn, MS, Weather Action
- Richard S. Courtney, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
- Uberto Crescenti, Ph.D, Past-President, Italian Geological Society
- Susan Crockford, Ph.D, University Of Victoria
- Joseph S. D'aleo, Fellow, American Meteorological Society
- James Demeo, Ph.D, University Of Kansas (retired)
- David Deming, Ph.D, University Of Oklahoma
- Diane Douglas, Ph.D, Paleoclimatologist
- David Douglass, Ph.D, University Of Rochester
- Robert H. Essenhigh, E.G. Bailey Emeritus, Professor Of Energy Conversion, The Ohio State University
- Christopher Essex, Ph.D, University Of Western Ontario
- John Ferguson, Ph.D, University Of Newcastle
- Upon Tyne, (retired)
- Eduardo Ferreyra, Argentinian Foundation For A Scientific Ecology
- Michael Fox, Ph.D, American Nuclear Society
- Gordon Fulks, Ph.D, Gordon Fulks And Associates
- Lee Gerhard, Ph.D, State Geologist, Kansas (retired)
- Gerhard Gerlich, Ph.D, Technische Universitat Braunschweig
- Ivar Giaever, Ph.D, Nobel Laureate, Physics
- Albrecht Glatzle, Ph.D, Scientific Director, Inttas (Paraguay)
- Wayne Goodfellow, Ph.D, University Of Ottawa
- James Goodridge, California State Climatologist, (retired)
- Laurence Gould, Ph.D, University Of Hartford
- Vincent Gray, Ph.D, New Zealand Climate Coalition
- William M. Gray, Ph.D, Colorado State University
- Kenneth E. Green, D.Env., American Enterprise Institute
- Kesten Green, Ph.D, Monash University
- Will Happer, Ph.D, Princeton University
- Howard C. Hayden, Ph.D, University Of Connecticut, (emeritus)
- Ben Herman, Ph.D, University Of Arizona, (emeritus)
- Martin Hertzberg, Ph.D, U.S. Navy, (retired)
- Doug Hoffman, Ph.D, Author, The Resilient Earth
- Bernd Huettner, Ph.D.
- Ole Humlum, Ph.D, University Of Oslo
- A. Neil Hutton, Past President, Canadian Society Of Petroleum Geologists
- Craig D. Idso, Ph.D, Center For The Study Of Carbon Dioxide And Global Change
- Sherwood B. Idso, Ph.D, U.S. Department Of Agriculture (retired)
- Kiminori Itoh, Ph.D, Yokohama National University
- Steve Japar, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
- Sten Kaijser, Ph.D, Uppsala University, (emeritus)
- Wibjorn Karlen, Ph.D, University Of Stockholm, (emeritus)
- Joel Kauffman, Ph.D, University Of The Sciences, Philadelphia, (emeritus)
- David Kear, Ph.D, Former Director-General, Nz Dept. Scientific And Industrial Research
- Richard Keen, Ph.D, University Of Colorado
- Dr. Kelvin Kemm, Ph.D, Lifetime Achievers Award, National Science And Technology Forum, South Africa
- Madhav Khandekar, Ph.D, Former Editor, Climate Research
- Robert S. Knox, Ph.D, University Of Rochester (emeritus)
- James P. Koermer, Ph.D, Plymouth State University
- Gerhard Kramm, Ph.D, University Of Alaska Fairbanks
- Wayne Kraus, Ph.D, Kraus Consulting
- Olav M. Kvalheim, Ph.D, Univ. Of Bergen
- Roar Larson, Ph.D, Norwegian University Of Science And Technology
- James F. Lea, Ph.D.
- Douglas Leahy, Ph.D, Meteorologist
- Peter R. Leavitt, Certified Consulting Meteorologist
- David R. Legates, Ph.D, University of Delaware
- Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology
- Harry F. Lins, Ph.D. Co-Chair, IPCC Hydrology and Water Resources Working Group
- Anthony R. Lupo, Ph.D, University Of Missouri
- Howard Maccabee, Ph.D, MD Clinical Faculty, Stanford Medical School
- Horst Malberg, Ph.D, Free University of Berlin
- Bjorn Malmgren, Ph.D, Goteburg University (emeritus)
- Jennifer Marohasy, Ph.D, Australian Environment Foundation
- James A Marusek, U.S. Navy, (retired)
- Ross Mckitrick, Ph.D, University Of Guelph
- Patrick J. Michaels, Ph.D, University Of Virginia
- Timmothy R. Minnich, MS, Minnich And Scotto, Inc.
- Asmunn Moene, Ph.D, Former Head, Forecasting Center, Meteorological Institute, Norway
- Michael Monce, Ph.D, Connecticut College
- Dick Morgan, Ph.D, Exeter University, (emeritus)
- Nils-axel Morner, Ph.D, Stockholm University, (emeritus)
- David Nowell, D.I.C., Former Chairman, Nato Meteorology Canada
- Cliff Ollier, D.Sc., University Of Western Australia
- Garth W. Paltridge, Ph.D, University Of Tasmania
- Alfred Peckarek, Ph.D, St. Cloud State University
- Dr. Robert A. Perkins, P.E. University Of Alaska
- Ian Pilmer, Ph.D, University Of Melbourne (emeritus)
- Brian R. Pratt, Ph.D, University Of Saskatchewan
- John Reinhard, Ph.D, Ore Pharmaceuticals
- Peter Ridd, Ph.D, James Cook University
- Curt Rose, Ph.D, Bishop's University (emeritus)
- Peter Salonius, M.Sc., Canadian Forest Service
- Gary Sharp, Ph.D, Center For Climate/Ocean Resources Study
- Thomas P. Sheahan, Ph.D, Western Technologies, Inc.
- Alan Simmons, Author, The Resilient Earth
- Roy N. Spencer, Ph.D, University Of Alabama-Huntsville
- Arlin Super, Ph.D, Retired Research Meteorologist, U.S. Dept. Of Reclamation
- George H. Taylor, MS, Applied Climate Services
- Eduardo P. Tonni, Ph.D, Museo De La Plata, (Argentina)
- Ralf D. Tscheuschner, Ph.D.
- Dr. Anton Uriarte, Ph.D, Universidad Del Pais Vasco
- Brian Valentine, Ph.D, U.S. Department Of Energy
- Gosta Walin, Ph.D, University Of Gothenburg, (emeritus)
- Gerd-Rainer Weber, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmenal Panel On Climate Change
- Forese-Carlo Wezel, Ph.D, Urbino University
- Edward T. Wimberley, Ph.D, Florida Gulf Coast University
- Miklos Zagoni, Ph.D, Reviewer, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
- Antonio Zichichi, Ph.D, President, World Federation Of Scientists
Footnotes
- Swanson, K.L., and A. A. Tsonis. Geophysical Research Letters, in press: DOI:10.1029/2008GL037022.
- Brohan, P., et al. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006: DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006548. Updates at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature.
- Pielke, R. A. Jr., et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005: DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-86-10-1481.
- Douglass, D. H., et al. International Journal of Climatology, 2007: DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651.
https://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-335071-275190.html
上一篇：点铁成金：用阳光把二氧化碳变成清洁能源
下一篇：哥本哈根猜想
扫一扫，分享此博文
全部作者的精选博文
全部精选博文导读
相关博文
- • Evolution of Traditional Medicine through DIKWP Model（初学者版）
- • Human Cultural Evolution through the Networked DIKWP （初学者版）
- • Human Civilization Evolution through the DIKWP（初学者版）
- • Critique of Mathematics: Summaries and Comparisons（初学者版）
- • Prof. Yucong Duan\´s Critique of Traditional Mathematic（初学者版）
- • Yucong Duan \´s Critique of Mathematic with Heidegger（初学者版）