Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat

First author: Wei Xie; Affiliations: Peking University (北京大学): Beijing, China

Corresponding author: Wei Xie(解伟)

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage (酒精饮料) in the world by volume consumed (消耗量), and yields of its main ingredient (原料), barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity (严重程度) of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability (脆弱性) of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer 农业技术转让) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, −32% in Argentina 阿根廷) and increases in beer prices (for example, +193% in Ireland 爱尔兰). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.

啤酒就消耗量来说是全球最为受欢迎的酒精饮料，但近年来由于极端干旱和高温的天气使的啤酒主要原料大麦的产量逐年降低。尽管通过五个地球系统模型预测显示在可预见的未来气候下，干旱和高温极端天气的频率和严重程度会持续性增加，但从未有人评估过极端气候下啤酒供应的脆弱性。本文作画通过基于工艺流程的作物模型（农业技术转让的决策支持系统）和全球经济模型（全球贸易分析项目模型）来评估可预见的未来干旱和高温极端天气的影响。作者发现这些极端气候可能会导致全球大麦产量的持续下降。每年的大麦产量下降3%～17%，多少视极端气候的严重程度而定。全球大麦供应的减少导致了用于酿造啤酒的大麦减少更多，最终导致区域性啤酒消费的急剧下降， 比如阿根廷地区的啤酒消费下降了32%，并且啤酒价格也上涨，爱尔兰的啤酒更是涨价193%。尽管这并不是未来气候变化主要的影响，但气候相关的极端环境条件可能会威胁着全球啤酒的供给和经济。

通讯：解伟（http://www.saas.pku.edu.cn/sztd/qbjylb/x/5187.htm）

个人简介：2004-2008年，山西财经大学，理学学士；2009-2014，北京师范大学，理学博士；2010-2014年，实习研究，国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部；2013年7-10月，访问学者，美国南加州大学公共政策学院；2014-2016年，助理研究员，中国科学院农业政策研究中心；2016-至今，助理教授，北京大学现代农学院。

研究方向：主要围绕农产品供求、贸易和价格预测及政策分析开展研究。

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-018-0263-1

Journal: Nature Plants

Published date: 15 October, 2018

（P.S. 原文下载：链接:https://pan.baidu.com/s/1qFiSsqwlF_7JjmGMbedfhQ  密码:dmu6）