||
打假专家小方的部分分析结果如下。
柴静在演讲中提供了一张图表表示:“当pm2.5值升高的时候,人群的死亡率是随之上升的。”(12分34秒)。图表上显示数据来源为中科院大气物理研究所。实际上它的数据取自中科院大气物理研究所在2013年12月在《大气环境》杂志上发表的一篇论文:Time-series analysis of mortality effects from airborne particulate matter size fractions in Beijing,Atmospheric Environment 81 (2013) 253-262,改自该论文的图6。这张图表示的是2005到2009年这5年北京pm2.5浓度、非事故总死亡率、呼吸系统疾病死亡率、循环系统疾病死亡率变化的情况。最上面的那条曲线是循环系统疾病死亡率的情况:在论文原图,最高的是2007年,2008年有所下降,2009年又升上去了。但是在柴静的图中,这条曲线却变成了平滑上升,也就是说,这五年北京循环系统疾病死亡率是逐年上升的。这显然与事实不符,是对原图的篡改。
原文如下
Time-series analysis of mortality effects from airborne particulate matter size .pdf
•
Feature of mortality impacts from PM size fractions is initial evaluated in Beijing.
•An obvious seasonal pattern of PM2.5 acute effect has been found.
•Modifying effect of PM2.5 by temperature exists in the study period.
•The level of RR assume an significantly tendency in recent years.
Evidence concerning the health risk of fine and coarse particles is limited in developing Asian countries. The modifying effect between particles and temperature and season also remains unclear. Our study is one of the first to investigate the acute effect of particles size fractions, modifying effects and interannual variations of relative risk in a developing megacity where particulate levels are extraordinarily high compared to other Asian cities. After controlling for potential confounding, the results of a time-series analysis during the period 2005–2009 show that a 10 μg m−3 increase in PM2.5 levels is associated with a 0.65% (95% CI: 0.29–0.80%), 0.63% (95% CI: 0.25–0.83%), and 1.38% (95% CI: 0.51–1.71%) increase in non-accidental mortality, respiratory mortality, and circulatory mortality, respectively, while a 10 μg m−3 increase in PM10 is similarly associated with increases of 0.15% (95% CI: 0.04–0.22%), 0.08% (95% CI: 0.01–0.18%), and 0.44% (95% CI: 0.12–0.63%). We did not find a significant effect of PM2.5–10 on daily mortality outcomes. Our analyses conclude that temperature and particulates, exposures to both of which are expected to increase with climate change, might act together to worsen human health in Beijing, especially in the cool seasons. The level of the estimated percentage increase assume an escalating tendency during the study period, in addition to having a low value in 2008, and after the Olympic Games, the values increased significantly as the temporary atmospheric pollution control measures were terminated mostly.
Particulate matter;
PM2.5;
Mortality;
Health effect;
Weather factors;
GAM;
Time-series;
Beijing
Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
有人会说,柴静团队是用原始数据重新画图,进行拟合,表示的是死亡率的上升趋势。那好,我们再来看看原图。原图有一组重要的数据被柴静的图删掉了,那就是北京2005到2009年这五年每年的pm2.5平均浓度,分别是:76、84、78、69、65。可见在这五年,pm2.5值最高的是2006年,之后由于要开北京奥运会进行治理,北京pm2.5值其实是逐年下降的。柴静的图却显示那几年北京循环系统疾病死亡率逐年上升,岂不成了随着pm2.5下降,人群的死亡率是随之上升的?(按:pm2.5会立即导致循环系统疾病的死亡,不存在滞后)难怪要删掉pm2.5值,同时捏造出一条逐渐上升的死亡曲线。请问这不是捏造数据是什么?
3月1日下午,正式履新刚刚48小时的环保部部长陈吉宁,举行媒体座谈会。现场,他回答了媒体关于柴静自费调查雾霾的回应。陈吉宁表示,柴静从公众健康这一特殊的角度,来唤起公众对环境的关注,值得我们敬佩。
http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-280034-871584.html
柴静可能与小崔一样柴静造假 必将封杀 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-280034-871752.html
柴静被成功封杀 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-280034-872352.html
柴静的笑容与灵魂 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-280034-872615.html
我们为谁而战?——柴静《穹顶之下》存在的问题以及舆论..._新浪博客
方舟子:柴静《穹顶之下》的造假迷雾http://bbs.tianya.cn/post-worldlook-1412581-1.shtml
亡率、呼吸系统疾病死亡率、循环系统疾病死亡率的情况。最上面的那条曲线是循环系
统疾病死亡率的情况:在论文原图,最高的是2007年,2008年有所下降,2009年又升上
去了。但是在柴静的图中,这条曲线却变成了平滑上升,也就是说,这五年北京循环系
统疾病死亡率是逐年上升的。这显然与事实不符,是对原图的篡改。
有人会说,柴静团队是用原始数据重新画图,进行拟合,表示的是死亡率的上升趋
势。那好,我们再来看看原图。原图有一组重要的数据被柴静的图删掉了,那就是北京
2005到2009年这五年每年的pm2.5平均浓度,分别是:76、84、78、69、65。可见在这
五年,pm2.5值最高的是2006年,之后由于要开北京奥运会进行治理,北京pm2.5值其实
是逐年下降的。柴静的图却显示那几年北京循环系统疾病死亡率逐年上升,岂不成了随
着pm2.5下降,人群的死亡率是随之上升的?(按:pm2.5会立即导致循环系统疾病的死
亡,不存在滞后)难怪要删掉pm2.5值,同时捏造出一条逐渐上升的死亡曲线。请问这
不是捏造数据是什么?】
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