武夷山分享 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/Wuyishan 中国科学技术发展战略研究院研究员;南京大学信息管理系博导

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被Journal of Informetrics录用的一篇论文已经上线

已有 8383 次阅读 2013-12-4 21:40 |个人分类:科学计量学研究|系统分类:论文交流

   被Journal of Informetrics录用的一篇论文已经上线,见

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1751157713000904# 

   该文研究期刊论文零被引率的时变特征。  

Volume 8, Issue 1, January 2014, Pages 136–146

Regularity in the time-dependent distribution of the percentage of never-cited papers: An empirical pilot study based on the six journals
  • a Institute of Scientific & Technical Information of China, Beijing, China

  • b School of Information Management, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

Abstract

The non-citation rate refers to the proportion of papers that do not attract any citation over a period of time following their publication. After reviewing all the related papers in Web of Science, Google Scholar andScopus database, we find the current literature on citation distribution gives more focus on the distribution of the percentages and citations of papers receiving at least one citation, while there are fewer studies on the time-dependent patterns of the percentage of never-cited papers, on what distribution model can fit their time-dependent patterns, as well as on the factors influencing the non-citation rate. Here, we perform an empirical pilot analysis to the time-dependent distribution of the percentages of never-cited papers in a series of different, consecutive citation time windows following their publication in our selected six sample journals, and study the influence of paper length on the chance of papers’ getting cited. Through the above analysis, the following general conclusions are drawn: (1) a three-parameter negative exponential model can well fit time-dependent distribution curve of the percentages of never-cited papers; (2) in the initial citation time window, the percentage of never-cited papers in each journal is very high. However, as the citation time window becomes wider and wider, the percentage of never-cited papers begins to drop rapidly at first, and then drop more slowly, and the total degree of decline for most of journals is very large; (3) when applying the wider citation time windows, the percentage of never-cited papers for each journal begins to approach a stable value, and after that value, there will be very few changes in these stable percentages, unless we meet a large amount of “Sleeping Beauties” type papers; (4) the length of an paper has a great influence on whether it will be cited or not.

Keywords
  • Percentage of uncited papers;

  • Citation distribution;

  • Regularity in time-dependent distribution;

  • Influencing factors;

  • Negative exponential model;

  • Journal

Figures and tables from this article:

Full-size image (42 K)
Fig. 1.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1992.

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Fig. 2.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1993.

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Fig. 3.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1994.

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Fig. 4.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1995.

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Fig. 5.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1996.

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Fig. 6.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1997.

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Fig. 7.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1998.

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Fig. 8.

The time-dependent scatter plots and the fitting curves for the percentages of never-cited papers in twelve different citation time windows following their publication in six journals in 1999.

Table 1.

Some basic statistics for the sample journals.

View Within Article
Table 2.

Estimated R-square with model 2 fitting sample data of different journals.

View Within Article
Table 3.

The interval of the fitting parameters for six sample journals.

View Within Article
Table 4.

The percentages of never-cited papers in twelve citation time windows with different length t [1,12] following their publication in six different journals in 1992.

View Within Article
Table 5.

The interval of the percentage of never-cited papers in some citation time windows following their publication in six different journals respectively in 1992, 1993, …, 1999.

View Within Article
Table 6.

The relation between paper length and the probability of getting cited.

View Within Article

 



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