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美国大学的技术发明商业转让之经济影响
武夷山
David Roessner等四位美国学者在Research Policy杂志2013年第1期发表文章,The economic impact of licensed commercialized invention originating in university research(源自大学科研的发明成果之商业转让产生的经济影响)。下面只介绍其实证研究的结论。
1996-2010年的15年间,假定未发生产品替代效应(博主:如果新产品替代了老产品,则老产品原先可能产生的销售额就不再发生了,故在发生产品替代的情况下,经济影响估计值要小一些),假定技术转让费在2%至10%之间,则大学技术转让对工业总产值的贡献至少为1621亿美元,最高估计值则为6869亿美元(均以2005年币值计算)。假定技术转让费为5%,则贡献为2933亿美元。
假定技术转让费为2%,基于产品销售的技术转让协议至少为GDP贡献了705亿美元,最高估计值是2776亿美元。假定技术转让费为5%,则贡献额为1222亿美元。
这些发明产品带来的新增就业,1996年估计为7000人,2010年为2.3万人。或者说,15年间总共新增27.7万人年的就业。
如果发生产品替代,则估计出的贡献额就降低。但是,即使是最保守的估计,得出的经济影响额都是巨大的。
博主:2008年,我国高校获得科研经费总额为654.5亿元,按当年汇率,约合94.3亿美元。我们以上文中“假定技术转让费为2%,基于产品销售的技术转让协议至少为GDP贡献了705亿美元”的数据做个假想:美国大学15年间产生705亿美元,则每年平均为经济发展做出了47亿美元的贡献。47刚好是94的一半。也就是说,中国的大学如果在科研成果转化及转让方面达到美国大学的水平,则意味着每获得两美元的科研经费,就能为GDP做出1美元的贡献,那多牛!
该文摘要如下:
Abstract: The purpose of this article is to estimate quantitatively the contribution that university licensing makes to the national U.S. economy. As regions and nations face increased economic problems, they seek ways to augment opportunities for economic growth and to identify areas where public funding can be cut. It is now well-recognized that the research university can be a significant engine of economic growth and job creation. University research and research-related activities contribute in many important ways to modern economies: notably through increased productivity of applied R&D in industry due to university-developed new knowledge and technical know-how; provision of highly valued human capital embodied in faculty and students; development of equipment and instrumentation used by industry in production and research; and creation of concepts and prototypes for new products and processes, which may have some unexpected and large social and economic impacts. Yet clear documentation of the proportional contributions these make to economic growth remains elusive. This article provides detailed estimates of the economic impact on the U.S. national economy of one core university activity – licensing of university inventions to industry.
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