A hybrid method to trace technology evolution pathways: a case study of 3D printing
Ying HuangDonghua ZhuYue QianYi ZhangAlan L. PorterYuqin LiuYing Guo
1 Donghua Zhu
1 Yue Qian
1 Yi Zhang
1、2 Alan L. Porter
3、4 Yuqin Liu
5 Ying Guo

1.School of Management and EconomicsBeijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing China
2.Faculty of Engineering and Information TechnologyUniversity of Technology SydneySydney Australia
3.School of Public PolicyGeorgia Institute of TechnologyAtlant USA
4.Search Technology, Inc.Norcross USA
5.Academy of Printing and Packaging Industrial TechnologyBeijing Institute of Graphic Communication Beijing China

Abstract

Whether it be for countries to improve the ability to undertake independent innovation or for enterprises to enhance their international competitiveness, tracing historical progression and forecasting future trends of technology evolution is essential for formulating technology strategies and policies. In this paper, we apply co-classification analysis to reveal the technical evolution process of a certain technical field, use co-word analysis to extract implicit or unknown patterns and topics, and employ main path analysis to discover significant clues about technology hotspots and development prospects. We illustrate this hybrid approach with 3D printing, referring to various technologies and processes used to synthesize a three-dimensional object. Results show how our method offers technical insights and traces technology evolution pathways, and then helps decision-makers guide technology development.

Huang, Y., Zhu, D., Qian, Y. et al. Scientometrics (2017)

Methodology

The main analytic approaches of this paper include co-classification analysis, co-word analysis, and main path analysis of patent citations. （本文利用了共类分析、共词分析和专利引用主路径分析方法。）

Tool

In this process, we use a professional desktop text mining software—VantagePoint (https://www.thevantagepoint.com/)—to help identify the fields from raw data and show results through a combination of statistics.

DATA

Compared to the Thomson Innovation, DII lacks the citation of patent
information and the USPTO lacks patent family tabulation; thus, we collect data from
Thomson Innovation (that incorporates Derwent patent information).

The search query we used is "TABD = (((3D OR 3-D OR (3 ADJ dimension*) OR
(three ADJ2 dimension*) OR additive) NEAR (print* OR fabricat* OR manufactur* OR
product*))), which was directed to search the title and abstract fields. Besides, in consideration
of the time lag for when patents are filed, we refined the publication period to
1985 through 2014, while we performed the search on January 9, 2016. Ultimately, we
received 7975 records. The reason for setting 1985 as the beginning year for the
acknowledged and first published 3D printing related patent is that EP171069 was applied
to the 3D system in 1985.