基本比率谬误

http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E6%AF%94%E7%8E%87%E8%AC%AC%E8%AA%A4

基本比率谬误（base rate fallacy）或基本率谬误、忽略基本比率（Neglecting Base Rates）

评：这里的说明不够好，懂的人不用看，不懂的看了没有本质印象。

Base rate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate

In probability and statistics, base rate generally refers to the (base) class probabilities unconditioned on featural evidence, frequently also known as prior probabilities.

Base rate fallacy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy

Base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is an error in thinking.

评：这里的说明略完备。

相关内容还在论及“贝叶斯推理”和“认知偏见”等问题时常见。

《Nature》的这篇报道里也提到这个问题：
http://www.nature.com/news/policy-twenty-tips-for-interpreting-scientific-claims-1.14183
Beware the base-rate fallacy. 

《Nature》里也有专门谈论这个问题的文章：
Learning to commit or avoid the base-rate error
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v380/n6571/pdf/380247a0.pdf

Base-rate errors and rain forecasts
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v382/n6594/pdf/382766a0.pdf

这两篇全文阅读需要注册。

同样的问题这里也有论及：
Theories of truth as assessment criteria in judgment and decision making
http://mars.smu.edu.sg/SJDM/ccd/ccd.html
Base rate neglect: An example of Hammond’s claim