[资料] 罗素的火鸡（Russell’s turkey）

Bertrand Russell’s Turkey

http://chaospet.com/115-russells-turkey/

一、简版

罗素说：

有一只火鸡，农夫每天来给它喂食。经过长期观察后，火鸡得出结论，“农夫来到鸡舍，我就有吃的”，之后每天的经历都在证实它的这个结论。

但是有一天，农夫来到鸡舍，没有带来食物而是把他杀了，因为这天是圣诞节。

二、完整版

这只火鸡发现，在火鸡农场的第一个早晨，他在上午 9 点喂食。但是，作为一名优秀的归纳主义者，他并没有急于下结论。他等到收集了大量关于他在早上 9 点进食的观察结果，他在各种情况下进行了这些观察，在周三和周四，在温暖的日子和寒冷的日子里，在下雨天和干燥的日子。每天，他都会在他的清单中添加另一个观察陈述。最后，他的归纳主义良心得到了满足，他进行了归纳推理得出结论：“我总是在早上 9 点吃饱”。唉，这个结论显然是错误的，在圣诞节前夕，他没有被喂食，而是被割断了喉咙。具有真实前提的归纳推理会导致错误的结论。

（来自 Alan Chalmers，What is this thing called Science，第 2 版，昆士兰大学出版社，圣卢西亚，1982 年）

三、英文版

This turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm, he was fed at 9 a.m. However, being a good inductivist, he did not jump to conclusions. He waited until he had collected a large number of observations of the fact that he was fed at 9 a.m., and he made these observations under a wide variety of circumstances, on Wednesdays and Thursdays, on warm days and cold days, on rainy days and dry days. Each day, he added another observation statement to his list. Finally, his inductivist conscience was satisfied and he carried out an inductive inference to conclude, “I am always fed at 9 a.m.”. Alas, this conclusion was shown to be false in no uncertain manner when, on Christmas eve, instead of being fed, he had his throat cut. An inductive inference with true premises has led to a false conclusion. (via Alan Chalmers, What is this thing called Science, 2nd edition, University of Queensland Press, St. Lucia, 1982)

参考资料：

[1] 刘伟，2021-07-11，AI与罗素的火鸡

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-40841-1295045.html

[2] Giovanni, 2015-11-26，The “inductivist turkey” and Thanksgiving: why we should not rely on our experience

https://www.timeneye.com/blog/inductivist-turkey-thanksgiving-experience-time-tracking/

相关链接：

[1] 2021-02-02，那些都是好时光 Those were all good days

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-107667-1270201.html

   “布里丹之驴，Buridan's Ass”

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