周少祥的个人博客分享 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/周少祥

博文

IPCC的严谨性何在?

已有 3513 次阅读 2012-5-24 06:44 |个人分类:气候变化|系统分类:观点评述| color, target

“气候变化2001报告”的数据“被擅改”
 
 
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
 
Box 2.1: Urban Heat Island and the Observed Increases in Land Air Temperature.

There are two primary reasons why urban heat islands have been suspected as being partially responsible for the observed increases in land air temperatures over the last few decades. The first is related to the observed decrease in the diurnal temperature range and the second is related to a lower rate of warming observed over the past twenty years in the lower troposphere compared with the surface.

Since the 1950s both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are available over more than 50% of the global land area. These data indicate that on average the mean minimum temperature has increased at nearly twice the rate of the maximum temperature, reducing the daily temperature range by about 0.4°C over these areas. This has raised questions related to whether the growth of urban heat islands may be responsible for a substantial portion of the observed mean temperature increase, because it is well-known that compared to non-urban areas urban heat islands raise night-time temperatures more than daytime temperatures. Nonetheless, the relatively strong correlation between observed decreases in the daily temperature range with increases of both precipitation (leading to more moist surface conditions) and total cloud amount support the notion that the reduction in diurnal temperature range is in response to these physical changes.

http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/india0210/papers/ipccreports/workinggroup1/051.HTM查得:

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Box 2.1: Urban Heat Island and the Observed Increases in Land Air Temperature.

There are two primary reasons why urban heat islands have been suspected as being partially responsible for the observed increases in land air temperatures over the last few decades. The first is related to the observed decrease in the diurnal temperature range and the second is related to a lower rate of warming observed over the past twenty years in the lower troposphere compared with the surface.

Since the 1950s both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are available over more than 50% of the global land area. These data indicate that on average the mean minimum temperature has increased at nearly twice the rate of the maximum temperature, reducing the daily temperature range by about 0.8°C over these areas. This has raised questions related to whether the growth of urban heat islands may be responsible for a substantial portion of the observed mean temperature increase, because it is well-known that compared to non-urban areas urban heat islands raise night-time temperatures more than daytime temperatures. Nonetheless, the relatively strong correlation between observed decreases in the daily temperature range with increases of both precipitation (leading to more moist surface conditions) and total cloud amount support the notion that the reduction in diurnal temperature range is in response to these physical changes.

 

我早期查得的数据是后者,也是by about 0.8°C over these areas。在“2  Observed Climate Variability and Change”一册中,见附件而现在在IPCC官方网站查得的是前者,by about 0.4°C over these areas这是怎么回事?如此改动既成报告的数据,IPCC的严谨性何在?
 
6月27日注:昨天在IPCC网站上再次下载这一PDF文件,这一数据仍是0.8°C,难以理解为什么会出现这一问题。


http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-38693-574289.html

上一篇:集体主义精神基本荡然无存了
下一篇:荒谬的“控烟就是卖国”

4 翟远征 赵建民 张学文 杨学祥

该博文允许注册用户评论 请点击登录 评论 (5 个评论)

数据加载中...
扫一扫,分享此博文

Archiver|手机版|科学网 ( 京ICP备07017567号-12 )

GMT+8, 2021-9-16 18:14

Powered by ScienceNet.cn

Copyright © 2007- 中国科学报社

返回顶部