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已有 3593 次阅读 2014-8-19 16:50 |系统分类:海外观察|关键词:参考消息,blank,世界经济,center,target| blank, target, center, 参考消息, 世界经济 |文章来源:转载

"超老龄化"国家猛增 劳动力锐减危及世界经济

2014-08-08 12:03:58来源:参考消息网责任编辑:王煜源

核心提示:从现在起到2030年,全球适龄劳动人口的增长速度将只有之前15年的约一半,从24.8%降至13.6%。

http://upload.cankaoxiaoxi.com/2014/0808/1407466697406.jpg

 穆迪投资者服务公司预测,人口老龄化问题将蔓延到新兴市场。图为上海老年人在晨练。

参考消息网8月8日报道 外媒称,一项报告7日预测,今后20年,随着世界人口的老龄化,经济将受到抑制,增长速度也将急剧放慢。

法新社8月7日称,穆迪投资者服务公司称,老年人与劳动人口比例失调不仅是笼罩发达经济体的阴影,而且还蔓延到新兴市场。

穆迪警告说,到2019年,人口定时炸弹以及相应的家庭储蓄减少可能使世界经济年增长率降低0.4个百分点。到2020年至2025年,人口带来的影响可能还会“严重得多”。

该公司在分析全世界劳动人口年龄特征的重大变化时说,在其信用评级范围内的国家当中,有超过60%将在明年之前被评定为正在老龄化(即65岁以上的人口超过7%)。

该公司说,到2020年,“超老龄化”社会(即超过五分之一的人口为65岁或以上)将从目前的3个增至13个,到2030年可能达到34个。

当适龄劳动人口的增加速度赶不上人口老化速度时,供养老年人的代价就可能使公共和私人资源显得不足,养老体系难以承受,公共财务不堪重负,债券市场利率上升。

穆迪的报告总结说,老龄化已不再“仅仅是发达国家的问题”,大批国家都受到影响。这份报告基于对33个发达国家和22个新兴国家的抽样调查。

报告的作者之一、穆迪公司高级副总裁埃琳娜·达格尔说:“人口变化常常被视为一个长期问题,但现在已经摆在我们面前,并将使经济增长明显放慢。”

报告说:“过去推动经济增长的人口红利将变成人口税,最终将使世界大部分国家经济增长放慢。”

穆 迪估计,从现在起到2030年,全球适龄劳动人口的增长速度将只有之前15年的约一半,从24.8%降至13.6%。除了少数非洲国家,各国都面临适龄劳 动人口减少或增长速度放缓的问题。从现在起到2030年,德国、俄罗斯、乌克兰和日本等约16个国家的适龄劳动人口将减少10%以上。

报告作者强调,政府可以在若干政策领域采取措施从而减少老龄化社会对经济产生的不利影响,比如让更多的妇女和年轻人参加工作,还有延迟退休年龄。工作场所的创新、生产率的提高和“高效的移民”或许也有帮助。

报告说:“从长远角度,通过创新与技术进步来提高劳动生产率和人力资本,也可以抑制人口迅速变化对经济增长产生的不利影响。”


 

 

日媒:中日在巴西打响“粮食争夺战”

2014-08-08 07:23:35来源:参考消息网责任编辑:张学

核心提示:日本三菱商事公司和三井物产公司积极收购当地企业,最大粮食需求国中国则自投资金确保在农地购粮。

http://upload.cankaoxiaoxi.com/2014/0807/1407415508777.jpg

资料图片:巴西马托格罗索州农场收割大豆。新华社发

参考消息网8月8日报道 《日本经济新闻》8月7日发表题为《巴西成世界粮食争夺主战场》的文章称,在世界粮食贸易日趋活跃的情况下,粮食争夺战也正在激化。主战场就是大豆出口已超过美国的巴西。日本三菱商事公司和三井物产公司积极收购当地企业,最大粮食需求国中国则自投资金确保在农地购粮。

三菱商事去年秋天对巴西一家大型粮食公司的出资比率从两成提高到了八成,将其变成了子公司。它在巴西全境开设54个收购点后,在巴西的粮食收购量比以往增加一倍,达到每年3000万吨。

巴西粮食产业增长突出。主要原因是农地有扩大的余地。巴西北部地区有广阔的未开垦土地,一些土地开垦后粮食产量迅速增加。2012年巴西大豆出口量超过美国,预计今后还将拉大产量差距。

文章说,把目光投向巴西的不光是日本企业,还有大量进口大豆的中国。

2014年2月,中国国有粮食企业中粮集团宣布收购荷兰大型粮食公司尼德拉集团,估计收购价为1200亿日元(约合12亿美元)。这震动了日本粮食业界。尼德拉集团在巴西从事大规模粮食生产,现在中粮集团的业务规模已逼近美国粮食巨头嘉吉公司。

文章称,巴西政府近年来一直在加强对外资购买农地的限制,但凭借资本力量,中国企业在购地方面显得很执著。

日本企业则发挥着先行一步的优势。三井物产在2011年完成了对巴西大型粮食公司多样化粮农公司的收购。在东北部的巴伊亚州,三井物产掌握着大片的大豆农场。

文 章认为,巴西面临的问题是薄弱的物流业。大量农作物被运抵为数不多的港口,公路和铁路设施也比较落后。三井物产已在这方面采取措施。2014年春天已向巴 西大型能源公司下辖的货运子公司VLI出资20%。在圣保罗南面的桑托斯港,VLI斥资1000亿日元,实施扩建工程。2014年1月向巴西粮食公司 CGG出资的日本双日公司也有着同样的目的。CGG在巴西北部一个港口建了出口基地。

文章称,8月1日,出访巴西的安倍与罗塞夫举行会谈,同意就完善粮食运输基础设施开展合作。以地球另一侧为舞台的粮食争夺战正愈演愈烈。

http://upload.cankaoxiaoxi.com/2014/0807/1407415607609.jpg

资料图片:在巴西里约热内卢,一名参加纪念“世界粮食日”活动的少年在食品桌旁等待领取面包。 新华社记者 汪亚雄 摄


 

外媒:美游说东盟各国提领土主张 与中国"摊牌"

2014-08-08 09:55:08来源:参考消息网责任编辑:王煜源

核心提示:美国国务院负责东亚事务的助理国务卿拉塞尔说:“我们并不是支持越南的主张并反对中国的主张。我们在主权一事上保持中立,但是我们对各国采取的行动不会视而不见。”

http://upload.cankaoxiaoxi.com/2014/0808/1407461146204.jpg

     资料图片:美国负责东亚和太平洋事务的助理国务卿丹尼尔·拉塞尔

参考消息网8月8日报道 外媒称,美国国务院负责东亚事务的助理国务卿丹尼尔·拉塞尔说,美国认为中国和其他国家有权对南海提出领土主张,“我们只想知道,它们是否以遵守国际法、并以和平且有建设性的方法来追求自己的领土主张”。

《菲律宾明星报》网站8月7日援引拉塞尔的话说:“我们并不是支持越南的主张并反对中国的主张。我们在主权一事上保持中立,但是我们对各国采取的行动不会视而不见。”

拉塞尔对记者说,所有的领土要求都必须遵守《联合国海洋法公约》等国际法,并且以和平方式进行。

他说:“这在一定程度上意味着,领土主张必须以陆地的情况为基础。正如《联合国海洋法公约》所说的,陆地统治海洋。”

中国政府的领土主张基于“九段线”,中国称这片区域是中国传统的捕鱼区。

拉塞尔说,东盟和中国应该尽快达成有关南海的行为准则,以防发生突发事件,酿成危机。他说,从美国方面来看,这是“可行的”。

据法新社8月7日报道,多名分析人士表示,美国和东南亚国家正力推在争议海域暂停“挑衅”行为,这为在一次地区安全峰会上与中国摊牌创造了条件。

中国近来的举动——包括在越南也提出声索的海域部署石油钻井平台——让邻国和华盛顿感到惊慌。东盟地区论坛即将于8月10日在缅甸举行。

澳大利亚的东南亚问题专家卡尔·塞耶说:美国当前在开展游说工作,目的是在东盟地区论坛上要求各方遵守国际法,以维护南海的和平局面。”

他对本社记者说:“美国还将支持暂停挑衅行为。”但他也说,北京很可能会“对美国的干涉持强硬立场”。

东盟地区论坛是东盟成员国以及澳大利亚、中国、日本、韩国、俄罗斯和欧盟等重要伙伴的外交部长举行的年度安全对话。

美国国务院负责东亚事务的助理国务卿丹尼尔·拉塞尔表示,虽然华盛顿的政策不是要“与中国对抗或遏制中国”,但它会在磋商期间坦率直言,同时寻求缓解紧张局势。美国国务卿约翰·克里即将赴缅甸出席东盟地区论坛及相关会议。

一些分析人士表示,预计中国会反对在南海暂停各种活动的呼声,中国会强调该国在南海的活动不具有挑衅意味。

拉塞尔说:“当前存在发生误判以及偶发事件导致局势升级并最终引发危机的风险”。

菲律宾表示,它将在此次会议上提出一项计划,旨在解决在海上从事“挑衅和破坏稳定的活动”的问题。

菲律宾外交部说,该国呼吁立即暂停“各种导致紧张局势升级的活动”、加速完成旨在制定具有法律约束力的行为准则的谈判并建立以国际法为依托的争端解决机制。

一些东南亚国家的外交官说,引发紧张事态的行为可能包括新建哨所等。此外,还可能包括从事建设和改造活动,特别是会对岛屿、浅滩或暗礁造成彻底改变的此类活动。

上个月,中国提前撤走了在越南附近海域的石油钻井平台,该国钻井公司此前表示已完成有关作业。中国此举显然是为了防止在东盟地区论坛上遭到批评。

但总部设在华盛顿的战略与国际问题研究中心的格雷戈里·波林说,中国撤走石油钻井平台“并不代表其解决南海问题的方略发生了战略转变”。

他说:“那充其量是在战术上去缓解紧张局势,而不是要永久性地缓解紧张局势。”

拉塞尔表示,中方撤走石油钻井平台为中越关系“消除了一个非常非常严重的刺激因素”。

他也说:“我认为,从更大范围讲,此事还导致邻国对中国的长期战略产生了严重质疑。”


 

外媒:中国与邻国之间存在“理解鸿沟”

2014-08-08 10:46:00来源:参考消息网作者:中外关系责任编辑:王煜源

核心提示:虽然外界往往认为中国近来的行为相当强势,但许多中国人认为自己才是受害者。

参考消息网8月8日报道 外 媒称,中国在世界事务中的崛起是当今国际体系中最重要、最棘手的现象之一。因此,理解中国在世界上的作用就显得非常重要。然而,人们在讨论如何理解中国、理解中国政策的时候,往往忽视了认识观念的重要性,尤其是中国人对自身的认识,以及对自身与外界关系的认识。实际上,中国的自我认知与外界对中国的看法之 间存在巨大的认识鸿沟。新加坡前总理李光耀曾说过,中西之间存在一条令人悲哀的“理解鸿沟”。我们审视近来中国与日本在东中国海的领土争端以及中国与菲律 宾、越南在南中国海的领土争端时,就能清楚看到中国与邻国之间存在一条这样的“理解鸿沟”。事实上,这不只是一条鸿沟,它已经和太平洋一样宽了。

日 本外交学者网站8月6日发表题为《中国与邻国间的认识鸿沟》的文章称,虽然外界往往认为中国近来的行为,比如在南海的种种举动,相当强势、相当霸道,但许多中国人确实发自内心地把中国看成一个热爱和平的国家,认为他们自己才是受害者。中国人认定是邻国一直在侵害位于南海“九段线”以内的中方主权、权利和利益。比如,中国通常使用这三个词组概括上述侵权行为:“海域被瓜分”、“岛礁被侵占”、“资源被掠夺”。用谷歌搜索这三个词组可以得到29.3万条结果。 中国媒体详细报道了外国窃取南海资源的情况,比如越南和菲律宾侵占了多少岛礁,再比如外国公司打了多少口油气井。许多中国人还相信存在一个针对中国的国际同盟,而且美国是这个同盟的幕后推手。因此,他们把中国看成是受害者:一个国家要同时对付许多国家。

这样的认识鸿沟是如何形成的?个中原因 和问题有很多。比如,中国实力迅速增强以后,外界尤其是周边国家,对中国的战略动机产生了更多质疑和提防心理。许多中国问题观察家相信,中国正在奉行一套极其复杂的、包含外交政策与军事战略的整体方案,其目标正是控制亚太地区。中国的抱负和能力常常遭到夸大。而另一方面,与10年前甚至5年前相比,中国人 对外交事务的看法发生了变化。立足于中国近年来取得的成就,包括决策者在内的许多中国人变得更加自信。许多人相信,崛起的中国在发挥实力、追求或维护国家利益的时候不应该畏首畏尾。看法的转变极大影响了人们对事物的解读与判断,尤其在面临紧张和冲突的时候。在本地区,因小事引发的对抗和争端往往被有关各方 看成是对基本尊严、颜面、权威和实力的侵害。

其他一些因素同样加深了地区鸿沟,比如历史遗留问题、教育、媒体的作用和美国的政策。此外,认 识和看法的形成在任何国家都是一个漫长的过程。因此,指望这些国家对彼此的理解和认识在短期内发生变化或者有所改善都是不现实的。不过对本地区民众尤其是决策者而言,留意鸿沟的存在非常重要。事实上,留意这条鸿沟的存在应当成为认真讨论涉华政策议题的立足点。这样做之所以重要,是因为国民的认识与理解是一国行为的指导。此外,正如老话说的那样:只有设身处地,才能替人着想。


 

China Holds Its Breath As Property Balloon Deflates

From http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB20001424052702303456104579487790125203828

By

Bob Davis And

Esther Fung

Updated April 21, 2014 1:08 p.m. ET

CHANGZHOU, China— Wu Xuesong, aprofessor in this city on the Yangtze, says he doubled his money on anapartment he bought as an investment some years back and is ahead on a second.

Buy a third? Forget it.

Mr. Wu slides open a dining-room window and points to the dark shadow of a new apartment complex, where only ahandful of lights are on. "No one lives there," he says. "Thatshatters my confidence" in China's long-thriving real-estate market.

Economists have worried for yearsthat China is setting itself up for a housing-market bust. In big internationalcities like Beijing and Shanghai, prices continue to rise. But evidence ismounting that in dozens of third- and fourth-tier Chinese cities rarely visitedby foreigners, overbuilding is out of control and a major property-marketslowdown is now under way.

The 200 or so Chinese cities withpopulations ranging from 500,000 to several million account for 70% of thecountry's residential-property sales. In many of these cities, developers areslashing prices and offering freebies such as kitchen furnishings and parkingspaces as they try to work through vast gluts of unsold property. Protests arebreaking out among buyers angry that their investments are losing value.

Data in some of these smallercities is scarce. But in 100 cities tracked by NomuraHoldings Inc., 8604.TO-0.08%42% of thoseclassified as Tier 3 and Tier 4 saw housing prices decline in March fromFebruary. Home construction in such cities is racing well ahead of populationgrowth, says Beijing research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, as developers continueto build new projects without buyers.

A dramatic housing collapse suchas the U.S. suffered a few years ago isn't thought likely here. Chinesefamilies don't borrow as heavily for home buying as Americans, putting at least30% down. China doesn't have sketchy mortgages like those that infected theU.S. market at its peak, nor home-equity loans that let owners finance shoppingsprees on the value of their homes. Chinese financiers haven't put togetherarcane mortgage-backed securities such as those that blew up in the U.S.

Yet even with market strengthholding up in the most prominent cities, the overall value of Chinese housingsold in the first two months of 2014 declined 5% from a year earlier,government statistics show. Private-sector data indicate the decline continuedin March.

Price drops might seem a normalmarket response to oversupply, but when it comes to housing, the phenomenonisn't benign. China increasingly depends on real estate to drive growth.

The construction, sale andoutfitting of apartments accounted for 23% of China's gross domestic product in2013, Moody'sMCO +0.24%Analytics calculates. That is up steeplyfrom 10% in 2006 and is higher than American housing's share of GDP reachedduring the height of the U.S. housing boom in 2006, Moody's says.

The housing troubles add to otherheadaches for the world's second-largest economy. They come at a time when debtin China is climbing as rapidly as it was in the U.S., Europe, Japan and SouthKorea before their economies cratered in years past. And China's growth, whilestill healthy by world standards, has slowed to its weakest since the Asiafinancial crisis of the late 1990s, amid less-robust demand both at home and abroadfor Chinese goods.

Chinese state television aired aseries this month on difficulties faced by home buyers and property developers.An owner in Shenmu County, in the north, said she couldn't afford to pay themortgage on her apartment but couldn't sell it, either, because so many otherswere for sale.

The finances of some cities anddevelopers are being affected. China's local governments depend on land salesto developers for about 40% of their revenue. Now those sales are bringing inless cash.

After the city of Fenghua ineastern China cut the price of land, developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real EstateCo.—which had incurred higher land costs—found it tough to sell apartments andmake payments on its debt, which the city website put at nearly $600 million.Municipal officials say they are trying to stave off a bankruptcy by thedeveloper that could tarnish the city's reputation. Principals of the developercouldn't be reached for comment.

As developers grow short of money,some are using apartments instead of cash to pay their bills to constructioncompanies. Anne Stevenson-Yang, research director at J Capital Research inBeijing, who crisscrosses China checking out property developments, sums up thereal-estate market in China's smaller cities "an incredible house ofcards."

Further weakness could meantrouble for construction companies and appliance and commodity producers.Furniture and appliance sales in China have been slowing along with the weakerpace of apartment sales. Also potentially affected are businesses that use realestate as collateral to get new loans; China's banks rely on property holdingsas the main collateral securing loans.

One risk is that consumers who areaccustomed to seeing steady gains in their homes' value pull back on spending.This is a danger because an unusually high percentage of Chinese householdwealth is tied up in real estate—about two-thirds, estimates economist Li Ganat Texas A&M University. Americans, at the peak of the U.S. housing boom,had only about half that much of their family wealth in real estate. The figureis high in China partly because of few appealing investment alternatives, withthe domestic stock market performing poorly for years and interest on savingsdeposits at banks fixed at a low rate.

Take a drive through China'sthird- and fourth-tier cities and these issues are all too visible. Many citiesare ringed by row after row of empty apartment buildings that reach 20 storiesinto the sky. At night, they are dark save for blinking red lights on top towarn airplanes.

Analysts have long taken note ofChinese "ghost cities"—sprawling new neighborhoods nearly devoid ofinhabitants. These have sometimes been seen as anomalies. But over the past fewyears, building has proceeded at such a blistering pace that Nicole Wong, areal-estate analyst in Hong Kong for CLSA, figures the pace of construction inthird- and fourth-tier cities needs to fall by half between 2013 and 2020 toget supply and demand somewhat back in balance.

In Yingkou, a dusty city of 2.4 millionin China's frigid northeast, the only sign of life in one complex of 20-storybuildings is a small satellite dish in a first-story window. Zhou Mingqi sayshe is paid about $290 a month to live there, by owners of three units who wantto make sure their properties aren't occupied by squatters or the fixturesstolen.

The project, called Expo Garden,began in 2010 and was supposed to be finished by 2013. As of last month, onlyeight of the planned 16 towers had been built. A recent visit found groundswith rutted roads, no sign of workers and not even any billboards advertisingsales.

City officials said the buildertemporarily suspended construction because of winter. A representative of thedeveloper, Xizang Zangye Group, said construction would resume in the spring.Other local developers said the city was trying to work out a deal to keep theproject alive.

In Yingkou, real estate's problemshave become the city's as well. Its land-sales revenue has fallen by about 40%in the past three years.

China's private real-estate marketdates only to the late 1990s, when the Communist Party started to privatizehousing owned by state-owned companies. The market went into overdrive in 2009,as Beijing told banks to start lending heavily to spur growth and make sureChina wasn't dragged down by the global financial crisis.

Around the same time, Beijingtightened restrictions on real-estate purchases in first- and second-tiercities to try to keep prices in those places from skyrocketing too high. (Fourcities—Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen—are considered first tier, androughly two dozen second tier.)

The result of the twin policieswas that money flowed heavily to medium-size and smaller cities. According to Citigroup, C +1.62%12 provincial capitals are building anaverage of nearly 15 "new towns" each, meaning massive high-riseapartment projects on their outskirts.

One level below the provincialcapitals, 133 cities that are the capitals of Chinese prefectures are buildinga total of 200 of these apartment complexes. Several dozen main county citiesare doing the same.

Changzhou—the place where Prof. Wuhas made money on past real-estate buys but now is afraid of the market—is atextile-exporting city of 3.6 million. When stimulus money started flowing in2009 and 2010, the city decided on a makeover. Aiming to turn into a producerof advanced materials and high-tech goods, it started building a subway andblocked out a section for higher-end housing.

But Shanghai is only an hour awayby bullet train. People with ambition and money often head to the megacity,crimping housing demand in Changzhou.

In the showroom of a cream-coloreddevelopment of villas and high-rises in Changzhou, four young Ukrainian womenin white fur stoles act as greeters. Ball gowns hang in the closets of themarble-filled model apartments. An outdoor swimming pool is decorated withstatues of nymphs.

It isn't enough to tempt many tobuy. There are plenty of other opulent developments nearby.

"If all the developers herestop building right now, there's still enough apartments to last the local andmigrant populations for another six to eight years," says a discouragedsales agent.

Faced with weak sales, thecomplex's developers publicly slashed apartment prices by 40% in late February.City housing authorities called them in to urge them to be more discreet,according to competitors, who say the city didn't want to get a reputation as abad place to invest. AgileProperty HoldingsLtd. 3383.HK +0.16%, a public company that is developing the project witha privately owned partner, declined to comment. City officials didn't respondto requests for comment.

The developers kept the discountsbut stopped advertising them.

Other developers felt they had torespond. Nearby, Feilong Road cuts through construction sites filled withunfinished apartment towers that reach as tall as 30 stories. Billboards forone project promise discounts of about 20%. Across the street, anotherdeveloper offers free parking and about $24,000 off the final price.

At one project, sales managerSusan Yang says her bosses are considering "stealth pricecuts"—rebates, of maybe 30%—that would keep the development competitivewithout undercutting its high-end image.

The real-estate oversupply"gives me a headache," Ms. Yang says. "People expect prices willfall."

On March 21, protesters lined upin front of Phoenix Lake Gardens, a middle-class complex of 20-story apartmenttowers in northern Changzhou. They put up banners, trashed architectural modelsin the showroom and demanded refunds from the developer, Wharf(Holdings) Ltd. 0004.HK-0.17%Wharf had cutprices by as much as 20% after these protesters bought their apartments, makingtheir purchases suddenly worth less.

David Wan, 25, said he had put$40,000 down on a two-bedroom apartment just a week before Wharf cut the price."The salesperson told me that prices wouldn't fall," he said.

Another buyer said she and herhusband sold their hometown residence 100 miles away and borrowed fromrelatives for a 40% down payment here, only to see the price for similarapartments later slashed.

The buyer, who would give only hersurname, Xu, was especially angry that the developer brought in guards to blockthe protesters from the showroom. "We are their earliest home buyers, andthis is how they treat us?" she said.

Wharf defends using the guards,who a spokesman said "wouldn't touch the customers unless they behavedunreasonably." The company said it cut prices to clear inventory, which itcalled "normal market behavior."

A few blocks away at another Wharfproject, a police officer tried to explain to a demonstrator the new reality ofhousing in China.

"You bought a privatehome," the policeman told the irate protester. "Prices will go up ordown. It's just like investing in the stock market."

—Dinny McMahon contributed to thisarticle.

 

 




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