# [ת]PPPй󾭼, ֵٵ͹

7466 Ķ 2014-5-2 23:12 |˷:|ϵͳ:۲|ؼ:| |Դ:ת

 йԵΡGDPһ 2014-05-03 16:29:30
 иʱȽĿICPInternational Comparison Program2011ҪͨͳƹƽۣPPP2011ֵGDPͳһĹʻұ׼λбȽϡµףĿ90ҳĸҪ湫վͬʱŽ˸ĿȽ塰ʵģһЩݽмرעĿƲͳĻʻ㷽ƽۣPPP㣬ӡȵGDPԽձΪйȻ2011˾GDP99λGDPѴ87%ҪȰʼһ룩߳һءǵйʴδ7.5%ֻ2.5%ңʱȽĿóPPPݿţԺܼ򵥵йڱȸľùģеĴýҲڵ˸ĿĻšԤ⣬й꽫Ϊһ󾭼塣ڶPPPͳƷľбзᶨؾܾһۣҲϣͳݹ֮ڡ͸¶˫ICPĿڲִһ꣬ýˡйʹ󾭼塱ı⡣ICPոչĸҪվݾͻ֣ᷢñϸڱȽ2011ľݣֻδ˭ͷž壬رǿPPPָ걾ľԺ⣬䲻Ԥ⡣Ӧ÷ӳзһע⣺йͳƾֶԱõķ۵ĳЩֱҪý౨źԤ⿴ƺɴҪGDPһⶥñйͷϣйִⲻӡЩֵζȻйܾⶥñǽ飬Ҳһؼԭʵڵġйۡ йвۡٵġйһۡĳЩ˸йֲɫǩա۹֮Ĳս˼ά߼ؾһı˳ֲˡڹ룬йӦóеΡ磬ϹѾ͸öԮֵȸ̫СӦóеݶȵȣ࣬һ㡣зһǿйǷչйң˾GDPλ֮Уһ棬ֻǿйӦеκȴһֱйڹо߷ݶ̫СʵIMFʻһ𣩺еȹ֯ĴȨȵȡȾйGDPһǱĻɶ䣬ۣǹ˵˵û»ûнسȥǶȣܹʱս˼άŵһߣйGDPһҲȫݡ λڰľ֯OECDǰһݱоԤ⣺ͳ°ڶڽ֮գ2016꣩йΪȫһ󾭼֮ʱ ޶żҲ2012꣬һ21Ĵ͹ʵʾ42%ܷţйʱѾ羭õͷ򣬶Ϊһɫֻ36% вپýʿԤ⣬2010ĩ2020óGDPһͷθй ֵһǣIMFʻһ֯ҲԤ⣺2019ùģλãʱйGDPPPPΪʱ׼Ԫ22.4ڣΪ22.1ڡЩԤⶼΪıۣȻǣǿһⳣἰǾǹһֱڻйGDPͳƵʵԣĻɲ޵2012ʡGDPܣйGDPȹͳƾָݶ5.8ңζţйΪ˼ˮ֣رǿǵ󾭼ڹٵĲ棬⽫GDP11%һ棬ѧΪйϷͷǷĻɫͺɫûⱣЩδͳڣйʵʵGDPҪߺܶࡣۺϲͬؿйGDPݣӦûǻɿġһͻοй˾GDPIMFͳ189Ľй20122013˾GDPʻ㣬Ϊ6078Ԫ6747ԪȥΪ84λƽۣPPP㣬Ϊ9051Ԫ9844Ԫȥ93λICPĿͳ2011199Уйλе99ûдĲ졣нȫ200尴˾(GNI)ָ껮Ϊ롢롢͸Ĵ𡣰б׼롱Ϊ˾GNI4036-12475Ԫ֮䣬൱˾GNIͬ˾GDP߼ضϵGNIԡΪͳƷΧǶȺGDPԡΪͳƷΧǶȺʹԹƶԣ2011й˾GNIΪ˾GDP91%㣬йȥ˾GNIΪ5531Ԫ6140ԪԳб׼롱ޣԼе롣һοȽϳ߶ǿȫ˾GDPλֵλֵ2011պйûж˻ͬ⣬йλӡе롱֮СҪԭһȱϵġе롱Ƚϱ׼б׼ǻҵҪֵģв顣һΪй󡣲˽˲Ƹ࣬2012ȫ31ʡ˾GDPֲλӰ׵λĩϯʡĽ5һᣬ˾һ൱׵ָꡣռĵײոܲʵݡڳܸĸ۵ͬʱûܵݶĸĸйGDP˵ֻһδαƽ̨׶ѣйΪȫһ󾭼ôֵ𾪺Ͳɽ𣿹ȻΪմմϲΪǡй͡ĵǡй˿Ϊı֮࣬ϲֵôС֡ο˾GDP޷ȣ˾͹Ҹǿ̶ȲҪΪܹƥеĸǿйкܳ·Ҫߡ-----------------------------------------¼ վICPĿİŸ壨 2014429գ2011ʱȽĿܽȽʵģ2014429գʢ٣ʱȽĿICP췢ʾ羭2011Ļͷֵ90ԪܲһԵҺеҡϹͳίԱȨ2011һICP199壬ƽۣPPPһ㷺Ĳ㡣ICP2011ĲPPPɷϵĸĽICPҪǶ2011PPPͻPPPĹֵGDPҪɵ˾ơƽ۷ҵľúָ꣨GDPͳһĻҵλȻʻ㷨ֱӺҹICPĿʵʩڵICPȫ칫쵼Э8ܾûԻչ8ޡ̫ƽ󡢶塢ޡձȺǡ̫ƽ죬Լŷͳƾֺ;֯ĶPPPĿҡ⣬ľ³Ǻʲμ忪չ˫ߵУδκԱȽϡҪȫ12ľ6е𣨸еĶ壩12󾭼ռ羭õ֮ռ˿ڵ59ùƽ۷GDPﵽ90.647ԪûʷΪ70.294Ԫùƽ۷е뾭ȫGDPеռΪ48ûʷΪ32ùƽ۷2011뾭GDPռȳûʷ2ȻЩռȫ򾭼õ1.5˿ռ˿ڽ11˿Լ28ס˾GDP֧13460Ԫƽˮƽľ壬72˿ھס˾GDP֧ƽˮƽľ塣˾ֵ֧ԼΪ10057Ԫζȫһ˿ڵ˾֧ڴˮƽһ˿ڵڴˮƽľЩ6е뾭Ϊйӡȡ˹ӡī磬ռGDP32.36뾭Ϊձ¹ӢռGDP32.9йӡڵ̫ռGDP30%ŷͳƾֺ;֯ռ54ռ5.5뾭֯ĿīδμICP2011İ͢޺Լռ4.5йӡռ̫õ֮ձͺ߲뾭֯ԱıȽϡ˹ռ70ϣռ޵56ϷǡԼռ޾õһ롣ĹЩ۸ˮƽָPLIPPPӦʵıʡָ100ζż۸ƽˮƽָ100ʾ۸Խϵ͡GDPľΪʿŲĽ󡢰ĴǺ͵۸ָΧ21018525ڴ뾭壬¹ձӢ23ļ۸ָΪ5050¡۸ˮƽ͵ľΪͻ˹̹顢Ǻ͹۸ָΧ3540˾ЩЩ˾GDPߵ5Ϊйر¬ɭغǰ˾10Ԫ11˾GDP5Ԫ˿ܺͲ˿ڵ0.6˾GDP128弴άĪɣȿˡзǹ͹ն¡ϡչ͹Ħ޺˾GDP1000ԪЩֱӻݼ˵֧ࣿԸ˿ڵʸһ㣬ʵ˾ѣһֱӻݼ˵ָ֧꣩Ȳ˾GDPáһָ˾ʵʸߵ5ֱΪĽȺйر¬ɭƽ˾ʵʸԼΪ8647ԪͶ֧йĿǰͶ̶֧ʱγܶռߣռ27ռ13ӡȡձӡǣֱռ743йӡ̫Ͷ֧Լռ80˹ռ77ռ61%ɳذռ40%ʹݵľԹƽͳѧϵĹƣеͳһܵͷּӰ졣ˣ뽫ΪʵֵĽֵԴռݺͼ㹺ƽ۵Ĺ̵ĸԣֱӹƳȡˣھ֮Ĺֵ΢С첻ӦΪ⡣ƽ۲ӦΪжϻҵ͹߹ָ꣬ΪʡӦǶ١ݡƽ۲ӳԻΪý顢ͶͶʻٷICPּͨͳһĻҵλض׼ԸľûˮƽбȽϡˣPPP֧2005꿪չһICPĹֱӱȽϣΪǻͬļ۸ˮƽ⣬ЩֱȽϻеһֵûвһ֡һתһҪǣ2011һICPжԹ㷽شĽICPӦȽһĹƽGDPʱƵı仯Ʒ»׼ֺܴ֮ܳĲ죬ʹֻʱ䡣ICP֮ļʱΪ꣬⵼˶ྭƷ2011PPP֧2011lCP׼Ĺ֧һЩܴĲ졣(12)(3452)
 ߣzengxing69763ʱ䣺2014-05-03 23:14:53֪ٺ٣˵Ͷѧͽиѧߣzengxing69763ʱ䣺2014-05-03 23:24:52֪ͨʶȡ֪ʶԭPPPGDP޷ӳйʵùģ״̬Ǹؾ÷չϵľ޴죬ԴֲڵͳƷʽ¸ڸˡΪйƣйӦòøΪϸµķʽǽͳƸʡеGDPPMI,CPIPPIȡߣһʱ䣺2014-05-04 04:35:47ܶྭѧΪúĹЧļ㷽ʽģͳĿġߣpiaʱ䣺2014-05-04 05:13:02˭ǵһ漰һҪǱ̨ʣȨȡӢΪһԺʵҪԪȡӢӵȫ˰ȨԪȨûˣҲлĻˡߣϸʱ䣺2014-05-04 07:48:00ΪɶйˮһξõԵʶ̬ǵķ⵱ǿʳҪʰʵıȻ磬վȥ֣ûͻۣCHinaߣϸʱ䣺2014-05-04 07:48:03ΪɶйˮһξõԵʶ̬ǵķ⵱ǿʳҪʰʵıȻ磬վȥ֣ûͻۣCHinaߣ·ʱ䣺2014-05-04 16:06:19ظߣzengxing69763ллۣй񻹲ֹһѧûGDPһ˵ָܶꡣ漰ˮƽȣҪǡָʵͳƾֺ͸طҲȱͳݡֻǹʱȽĿּǸģ⣬ֻܿһ֣˼һڲĲ͹⡣ߣ·ʱ䣺2014-05-04 16:14:01ظߣһǺǣ˼ͦõ˼·PPP൱ѧġλ÷ϸʵʡдԵľPPPֵIMFȨĹʻPPPľͳҲв졣ߣ·ʱ䣺2014-05-04 16:19:49ظߣpia˵һ⡣ԪΪʻҵĺǾ޴ġ˵ȡ߶ӡƱʱȫΪ򵥣رйĴծȨߣ·ʱ䣺2014-05-04 16:24:13ظߣϸߺǺǣϸΪıһȷע͡ʼ䶢йԩͷȷʵܶࡣйҲѧߣɽʱ䣺2014-05-04 19:22:20йﵽGDPϴﵽ׶ĿˣΪ־ŷĵ·Ҳܿһᷱٽĵ·ĶԪֵ涨˻GDPиԴھ£Уͨ⽻˾GDP޹ءʮ˴һĸһ˴ͬĽЧһġӲʵҲӦʵⲿ˵ʱڵѡ뷨ƽҲܽؽСҪָй˾GDP ﵽˮƽѸ˥˵£׷Ŀ겻йȫ綼ѣΪĽӡϸߵGDPȻ񣬰йô˾GDPйӣĸĽӽȽʵҲȽ롣ߣ·ʱ䣺2014-05-04 21:16:49ظߣɽһЩ˵йԼ19ͶGDPһλӣ˵磬ʱûͳƣǹƶѣһ͵׸֮й21ûλȷʵġͻؼ⣺ôŪģôûģֱ漰ᵽĵ·ƶ⡣ǰһѾۡһǽ㡣һ۵ʵǣйߵļȷġȽ·׷ġԽ·߼֮ǵСƽ֮ͬڡﵽ׶Ŀꡱ˵йӮüչȶⲿĪ塣һʵǣҪĸ롰ˮйߣⲿˣҲִϷԵĸǮڴйεȷгǺȻ顣ϰ쾿߶ԶҪĿԴӱ۵ĽǶȿϰĿȻ൱ٵҲ൱ϾزĭطծаΣõķչͷȣǻ۵Ҫ⣬ϰ͵Ÿոտʼй˾GDPﵽˮƽ⣬°ǰܰĴýרʱ˵һǣйʮ˶ˡĴһǽһǳµ飬ѣȫԽ˿йв۵İ°档ʵᣬ޵ܹڸ޷ܡ

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ǣйľʵмＸԼ˺ƣͷһȣʹӣҵǮӡ͡°ӡáӢʱ֪ߴõϢԭйųȨ棬Ϊֹȫ󾭼ţйӲʩһꡱ

ӹսԲӢԼڵһֱȫ󾭼壬ֻе¹ձңˣ߱ս׵ۺʵҶ֪¹ս׵߸սս壬ձھ÷չսĽ׶κӭ˹㳡ЭԼʧʮꡱ

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֪йĿǰͶܼ͹ңҵṹȻҵĵͶ˻жˮƽйGDPгڴĳɷ֣ҲƸкܴһ㴢ʽ档Ҳ˵ȻйѾΪȫ󾭼塱ΪйֻǡӹĴͶһõ㻹ԪŷԪȱҿƵĻңԡȫ󾭼塱ֻܱȫӹ塱ȫ㴢ȫƿȫҵϵȫϵȫǿ塣

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󣬴йδʮķչսԳÿй˶ʵйΡ룬ȫ󾭼塱ҲʱЩ˵۵ȻҲֵòο峯GDPҲһǿĽջǱѻƬսˣйľʵƼʵȻѽȣڹҲǰУҲò迵ǬʢΣݡ

ڵŷ޵ȷҽڡƼʵԶԶԽй崴»ƺͽȫ˲ԴԴӿ£3Dӡ˹ܡӼ㡢ҳΪȽƼԻȫҵϢԴǰйȻҲӿ˻Ϊ׿Խĸ߿Ƽҵ巢չˮƽȻܴ

δƼչһǧһпȫ̽䡣֣ͽйܵһòǿƴܵĵλ϶õϴҵԣйй񣬵ǰҪȻǡ̤ʵءʵ˰ȫ󾭼塱൱𡣵£ҪģѿԼƴӮδ/

(α༭UN639)ԭ⣺йΪȫ󾭼壿

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53յ磨ߡɯɯ뱨ǰĹʱȽϼƻ(ICP)ָʧ󾭼ͷΣ侭ùģܱйԽһ㷺ԤøһЩ

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ȻйΪľֻʱ⡣֮⣬ӡҲʵʱ䳬ԽԲΪ˰ѻϢѵһ˵µʾӡȵȫӵʮλһԾΪԽձ͵¹Ƚ׼йӡͬľ壬Ҷ˿ڴӴ˿ڼӦľٶȣԽע£ʣµֻʱ⡣

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ʷĳУй˻ֻὫЩµݿع鳣̬Ԥף1890걻Խǰһֱľ塣˺ŷˣЩݻ˼һ͵ľλԼɴ˼жϰߣ֮ΪȻˡ

ձҲû͹

йԸЩԲ˵УiPhoneֻƷReuters

(The World Bank)ȫ򶨼ˮƽعڶһЩ۶ɡ죬һЩýʹЩݵóһۣ꽫ʧȥ䱣гһ͵ȫͷž屦

죬˵ɭʾо(Peterson Institute for International Economics)λѧЩݵóۣйĻûб͹Ҽʮ֮ǰûб͹оȫľǿ⡣

˹(Martin Kessler)ᰲ(Arvind Subramanian)ΪϽۿܾʷ塣ڱ˵ɭʾоĲдйܻطҲеˡ

ͨPPPʵʻ뿪˷ȲһҪڵƷiPhoneߵ¹ǱлʰתԪŷԪй˵ƽнԶԶȲ˻ߵ¹ˣʵĸߵ͹˷չйҺͷҵĲࡣĶԱȶʹõлʣPPP

ڣصұֵ⡣

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һֻҵıֵκι㶼кܴԡͬľѧһòͬķóͬĽۣرڻûԵ͹߹¡

֣ҶָѹͱңͨԻұֵĹ֤ԼĹ۵㡣йҵʹͬľԡڣұֵٽڡ

ѽйĻߵһ⡣ڴ֮ǰİԲչйָͨίԱ(Federal Reserve, ƣ)ĹծߣνɴʩΪѹԪ˸ûʵĽڡ

˵ɭʾоеопܴĽǣйܹԴ֤ߺԴ˽ᡣ

ҵЭ(U.S. Business and Industry Council)ľѧɶɭ(Alan Tonelson)ͬ˹պᰲоЭᾭָйʹøֶʹ̴ڲλ

ɶɭڸйʵʱ(China Real Time)ĵʼдȻȥ10ѴֵӦΪһعֵԻΪᵽʱڣйûĸƱעĿдȫΪʱڵֵûʹӽֵΪɽףֵȻöࡣ

Χۻδҿܲܿʻһ֯(International Monetary Fund, IMF)ļҹֵȥ꣬IMFʾұʶȵ͹IMFƻұ͹5%-10%õIMFйó˳δԣȷPPPΪ㹤ߵIMFٴμΪұ͹ӪBob Davis

Is the Renminbi Still Undervalued? Not According to New PPP Estimates

by Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian | May 1st, 2014 | 02:44 pm

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The World Bank released the latest purchasing power parity (PPP) estimates of GDP on April 30. These estimates are published once every 5 to 6 years, based on the elaborate survey of prices across the world conducted by the International Comparison of Prices (ICP) project. The latest estimates pertain to the year 2011, while the previous estimates were for 2005.  The new data affords an opportunity to revisit that hardy perennial of global policy questions: To what extent is the Chinese currency undervalued?

And our surprising answer is: perhaps not at all. We can say with some confidence that the renminbi is now fairly valued, which is a striking change from even 2005, when the currency was undervalued by nearly 30 percent. This change possibly heralds the end of nearly two decades of Chinas mercantilist development strategy based on boosting exports by keeping the currency artificially low.

The methodology for estimating currency undervaluation and overvaluation using PPP estimates, as well as the contrast between the PPP-based and other macroeconomy-based approaches by Cline (2013)and Gagnon (2012), are discussed in greater detail in Subramanian (2010). Here we only present the results derived from the PPP-based approach.

The basic idea underlying the PPP-approach is that there is a positive relationship between prices and income per capita known as the Balassa-Samuelson effect: Poorer countries usually have lower prices in the nontradable goods and services sector and hence a lower general price level, which allows resources to flow to tradable sectors: A low price level thus reflects a depreciated exchange rate. This relationship is stable enough to provide a benchmark: For a given level of income, we can infer what the level of prices and hence the equilibrium exchange rate should be. Prices below this level indicate undervaluation, and above this level, overvaluation.

The Balassa-Samuelson Relationship

Note: A country below (above) either line has an under (over)-valued exchange rate.

For the purpose of this post, we use two different ways to determine this benchmark: a linear regression, where the price level is simply a linear function of GDP per capita, and a quadratic function, where we take into account the fact that this relationship is weak for poor countries (and hence the downward sloping part of the curve) and robust for emerging markets (the upward sloping part).1 The figure illustrates the two models.

We estimate the relationship for two different samples, and given our agnosticism on the choice of the right sample or model, we express our main result as an average of those four estimates (2 models times 2 samples). 2 Given the error margins intrinsic in such estimations, broad trends rather than precise numbers should be the important take-aways from our analysis.

For China, we find that the renminbi was only slightly undervalued in 2011by around 1.7 percent, and even possibly overvalued (see table) if we are to believe the quadratic model.

 Benchmark years GDP per capita (in PPP dollars) Linear model Quadratic model Average undervaluation(percent) Sample 1(percent) Sample 2(percent) Sample 1(percent) Sample 2(percent) 2005 4,802 -34.5 -35.0 -23.9 -19.4 -28.2 2011 10,057 -9.7 -9.8 2.7 10.0 -1.7

For 2005, using the same methodology, the average currency undervaluation was about 28 percent. In other words, the correction of Chinas current account surpluswhich rose from 6 percent of GDP in 2005, peaking at 10.1 percent in 2007, before falling to 1.9 percent in 2011was indeed accompanied by a real appreciation by 27 points relative to the benchmark.3

The ICP data relate to 2011. However, we can use the estimates for 2011 and project the equilibrium valuation for 2014. Between 2011 and end-March 2014, Chinas per capita GDP grew about 13 percentage points faster than the United States, which should translate into an appreciation of around 3.2 percent.4 The actual real appreciation of the renminbi between end-2011 and March 2014 was about 7 percent according to the Bank for International Settlements. This suggests that the average undervaluation until 2011 of about 1.7 percent has been effectively eliminated since then by the renminbis appreciation (over and above the level required by Chinas GDP growth). The renminbi in 2014 is thus fairly valued.

This estimate is of potential historic significance. Provided China does not reverse its exchange rate policy, by lapsing back into large-scale intervention and engineering renminbi depreciations as it is doing now, it will have put behind the pillar of its development strategy, which has involved maintaining a cheap currency to boost exports. The significance of our estimates, based on the most recent data released, is this: Not only are broad macroeconomic aggregates (for example, the current account deficit) moving in the right direction, but underlying relative price movements (and signals) seem to have shifted in a way to stop the flow of resources into export sectors, which now allows China to proceed with its rebalancing strategy. Put differently, there is room for cautious optimism that imbalances will not reemerge because underlying fundamentals are being addressed.

The end of Chinese mercantilismand relief for the rest of the worldmay be in sight.

Notes

1. Technically, the linear model is expressed as: ln (Pi) = + ln (Yi) + i, where P and Y are the price and income per capita levels for each country, and the quadratic model is ln (Pi) = + ln (Yi) + (ln (Yi))^2 + i. To be consistent between the 2005 and 2011 estimations, we normalize the price level to that of the United States.

2. Sample 1 excludes oil exporters and sample 2 additionally excludes small countries (population below one million inhabitants) and those which were not part of the benchmark in the 2005 round (all of which can potentially have problematic price level data). We also ran the regressions for a sample including all countries and the results remain broadly similar. The chart corresponds to sample 2.

3. It is true that in 2011 China intervened heavily in foreign exchange markets, to the tune of about $450 billion, but any impact from this action on underlying priceswhich is captured in a PPP-based approachwould have taken some time. 4. The linear model yields a slope of 0.246so the expected appreciation is 0.246*.13=3.2 percent. Other models point to a slightly lower value. Posted in Global Financial Crisis Tags: China, currencies Maybe Chinas Currency Isnt Undervalued After All Reuters Note to rest of the world: Stop bugging China on undervaluation of its currency. The World Banks re-estimation of global pricing is leading to a second day of questioning of economic verities. Yesterday, a number of publications used the new numbers to pronounce that the U.S. would next year lose its century-long ranking as the worlds number one economy. (China Real Time came to a more nuancedand skepticalconclusion.) Today, two economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, perhaps the worlds top econ think tank, used the numbers to conclude that the Chinese yuan was no longer undervalued, as it has been for decades. This estimate is of potential historic significance, conclude Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian. The end of Chinese mercantilismand relief for the rest of the worldmay be in sight, they write in a Peterson blog post. To review, the World Bank re-estimated the size of different economies using a calculation known as purchasing power parity (PPP), which tries to estimate relative wealth by looking at differing prices in different countries for the same goods or services. Such comparisons usually show that developing countries arent as poor as they seem. For instance: A haircut in Beijing costs far less than a haircut in Boston, which means the wealth of a Chinese person with a full head of hair C- lets call him Mr. Wangis greater than usually understood. Cheaper in China: haircuts. Not cheaper: iPhones, BMWs and other imports. Reuters But Mr. Wang doesnt buy things in PPP; he buys them using actual currency. When he leaves the hair salon and buys an import, say a U.S.iPhone or a German car, his yuan are converted into dollars or euros at the current exchange rate. Given that Chinese earn far less money than Americans or Germans on average, exchange rate comparisons accentuate the gap between developing and developed nations. Most comparisons of international power are done using the prevailing exchange rate, not PPP. Now, back to the value of the yuan. Messrs. Kessler and Subramanian use the new PPP calculations to estimate that between 2011 and March 2014 Chinas per-capita GDP grew about 13 percentage points faster than the U.S., which they say should translate into a currency appreciation of around 3.2%. Since the actual appreciation was 7%, that suggests the yuan appreciated too rapidly during that period and made up for some of the time when the yuan didnt strengthen rapidly enough. The renminbi in 2014 is thus fairly valued, they conclude. Any estimate of a currencys valuation is a black art. Different economists use different methods and come up with different conclusions, especially if there isnt an obvious undervaluation or overvaluation. Its hardly surprising that many countries accuse the others of deliberately undervaluing their currencies, and use estimates of currency valuation to make their point. Nearly every government has the same strategy for growth export more and a cheap currency helps exporters. The U.S. Congress has made Chinas currency a political issue for years; before that, Congresss target was the Japanese yen. Developing nations, in return, accuse the U.S., through the Federal Reserves bond-buying policy known as quantitative easing, of slapping a fancy name on a plan to drive down the value of the dollar. More In Currency The most likely outcome of the Peterson Institute calculations is that China will be able to point to them as a way to justify its currency policy and the U.S. Congress will do its best to ignore them. Alan Tonelson, an economist for the U.S. Business and Industry Council, a business group that regularly accuses China of playing different games to disadvantage U.S. exporters, was dismissive of the Kessler-Subramanian calculations. Although the yuan has risen substantially in value over the past decade, that should not be confused with movement toward proper valuation because, during the period in question, Chinas economic fundamentals improved so dramatically versus Americas, Mr. Tonelson wrote in an email to China Real Time. Indeed, its most reasonable to argue that the yuans appreciation brought it no closer to proper valuation during this period C because were it traded freely, it would have appreciated much, much more. The argument isnt settled and likely wont be soon, if ever. The International Monetary Fund is due to come up with its assessment of the yuans valuation during the summer. Last year, the IMF said the yuan was moderately undervaluedIMF lingo for 5% to 10% undervalued. The IMF figures Chinas trade surplus will rise over the coming years. So its a safe bet that the IMF, which doesnt use PPP, will again be in the yuan-is-undervalued camp. CBob Davis. Follow him on Twitter @bobdavis187. How Can China Carve Out a Bigger Role for the Yuan? Try Political Reform This post originally appeared on Real Time Economics. Seeking to give the yuan a greater role on the world stage, Chinas central bank is tirelessly promoting it as a tool for international trade and a future reserve currency. But experts say one necessary step toward making the yuan a global reserve currency is political reform and thats not on Beijings agenda. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images The Peoples Bank of China has madeimpressive headway in its campaign to promote the yuan. The fast growth of Chinas economy, coupled with policy support from the government, has allowed the yuan to grab a sizable share of Chinas own trade, starting from zero less than five years ago. Standard Chartered Bank estimates the yuan could account for 28% of the nations trade by 2020 double current levels and become the fourth-largest global payment currency, ranking it behind the dollar, euro and pound sterling. A few global central banks C including those from Australia, Nigeria, Chile and Japan have said they plan to put some of their reserves in Chinese currency. Many more have announced swap agreements with the PBOC, setting the stage for broader use of the yuan outside Chinas borders. But more remains to be done. Speaking last week at a conference on the internationalization of the yuan, Masahiro Kawai, former dean and CEO of the Asian Development Bank Institute, the multilateral banks think tank, noted theres a fairly long list of requirements to convince global investors that a currency is a safe place to store assets one of which is an independent legal system. A one-party system has trouble ensuring this, Mr. Kawai said. The dollar remains the main global reserve currency, but all of the other major global currencies the euro, pound sterling, Japanese yen, Australian and Canadian dollars and the Swiss franc C are from Western-style democracies. Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad suggests it might be possible for China to join the reserve club on its own terms C as the worlds second largest economy, China has been creating its own playbook, he said but it wont be easy. Mr. Prasad said an independent judiciary is indeed a big part of the magic sauce for determining what makes the grade as a reserve currency. It also requires transparency and public institutions the world trusts. Its important that the currency be fully convertible. Thats one reason Chinese policy makers have been pushing so hard to ease the movement of capital into and out of the country C a goal that might be mostly achieved by 2020, according to some estimates. The central bank recently widened the currencys daily trading band to give the market more say in setting its value. More open and liquid financial markets are also on everyones must-have list. There too China is making important strides, though it has a long way to go. Speaking at the same seminar on the future of the yuan, Yiping Huang, an economics professor at Peking University, set these preconditions for the yuan to become a reserve currency : CAn independent central bank that can ensure timely and professional monetary policy-making; CA sound and fair legal system to protect property rights and enforce bankruptcy laws; C Political reforms that improve the regimes transparency, accountability and representativeness. China could become the worlds biggest economy in the next decade or so but without such reforms, it would still be far short of the criteria for attaining reserve currency status, Prof. Huang suggested. The use of a nations currency in international trade and as a reserve currency is not determined by the Peoples Bank of China, he said. Its up to international markets to make that decision, he said, but what international markets decide is dependent on what we do at home. C William Kazer. Follow him on Twitter at @wkazer Follow @ChinaRealTime on Twitter for the latest updates. Trying to Understand Chinas Surprise Trade Deficit? Look at the Yuan This post originally appeared on Real Time Economics. Februarys surprise fall in Chinese exports may have less to do with the strength of foreign demand than with changing perceptions of the Chinese yuan. A less-bullish outlook for the Chinese yuan may have contributed to the surprise fall in Chinas February exports. Bloomberg News A glance at the mainlands trade data with Hong Kong suggests the strong capital inflows that boosted Chinas export data in early 2013 have begun to wane as the outlook for the yuan currency becomes less rosy. China on Saturday reported a rare trade deficit of nearly$23 billion in February, the largest in two years. That reflected an 18% drop in exports from a year ago, probably linked to speculative fund movements back then.

We believe the weak export numbers reflect both fundamental weakness and capital outflows due to [yuan] depreciation in February, Nomura economist Zhang Zhiwei said in a note to clients.

Chinas exports early last year were unusually strong they surged 25% in January 2013 and almost 22% in February C leading to suspicion that the data were distorted.

Economists said the numbers were inflated by over-reporting of exports in order to skirt capital controls and bring more foreign exchange into China. Exporters were looking to take advantage of a strengthening yuan currency, which climbed nearly 3% last year.

Fast-forward to 2014. In the first two months of this year the Peoples Bank of China has allowed more volatility in yuan trading, helping to curb speculative capital inflows disguised as foreign trade. The yuan dropped nearly 1.4% in February and touched a 10-month low, throwing yuan bulls off balance.

After taking a breather last week, the yuan has continued to fall this week. The Chinese central bank has set its benchmark exchange rate weaker every day, at 6.1327 per dollar Tuesday from 6.1312 Monday and 6.1201 last Friday. Tuesday morning, the yuan was trading at 6.1359 to the dollar.

The data on trade with Hong Kong, a major platform for bringing funds onshore, is particularly telling: Over the first two months of 2014 exports to Hong Kong fell 21% on-year, while last year they surged 61% in January-February.

With the significant [yuan] depreciation observed in February, we think an additional factor behind the weak export data in February is that the incentive for fake exports disappeared, J.P. MorganJPM +0.39% economist Zhu Haibin said.

Thats likely to affect trade data in coming months as well.  Last May, foreign exchange regulators warned of tough penalties for companies found to have falsified export reports, leading to a big slowdown in export growth after May. That means that until May 2014, exports may continue to look weak in comparison to the inflated figures a year earlier.

Most analysts say Chinas economic fundamentals havent really deteriorated to a significant extent C it may just be speculative inflows taking a break.

C Liyan Qi

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-2374-790742.html

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