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[转载]《华盛顿邮报》:乔治城学生揭开中国核武器隧道系统之冰山

已有 25586 次阅读 2011-12-21 11:56 |系统分类:海外观察|关键词:中国核武器,华盛顿,冰山一角| 华盛顿, 冰山一角, 中国核武器 |文章来源:转载

上周课上的一位同事给我下面的报道,看了很有趣,愿与大家分享。开源情报是否有用,大家看法如何,此为一斑。有兴趣的读者可见:开源情报与网络时代的国家安全  http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&uid=2374&do=blog&id=5562

 

《华盛顿邮报》:乔治城学生揭开中国核武器隧道系统之冰山一角

【核心提示:一群乔治城大学的学生利用课余时间,在教授卡伯的带领下,梳理了谷歌地图、公开报道、甚至中国的军事题材电视剧,总结出的研究报告认为:中国 拥有的核武数量远比过去估计得要多得多。这份报告已经引起了国会和五角大楼的注意。但也有其他的分析家对他们的研究方法提出了异议。】

 

中国人曾称之为他们的"地下长城"――用来隐藏该国越来越复杂的导弹和核武库的巨大隧道网络。

 

 

但在过去三年里,一小群痴迷于此的乔治城大学的学生却称之为:家庭作业。

 

在他们严厉的教授――一位前五角大楼高官――的带领下,学生们翻译了数以百计的文档,梳理了卫星图像,弄到了机密的中国军事文件,还搜寻整理了数百G的网上资料。

 

而成果为何呢?有关这数千英里长的隧道的史上最大的一批公开信息。这些隧道由中国第二炮兵部队挖掘。这支部队是中国军队的一个神秘分支,负责保护和部署弹道导弹和核弹头。

 

报告还没有公布,但已经引发了一场国会听证会,并已经在包括空军副总参谋长在内的五角大楼高官们之间传阅。

 

人们对这份363页长的报告的关注主要集中在它那刺激性的结论上――中国的核武库规模可能比防扩散专家们的可靠估计要大许多倍。

 

"这并不十分出人意料,但这些看法和估计数据正在和基于机密数据的研判结果进行比对",一位不肯公开姓名的国防部战略研究人员在谈论这份报告时说道。

 

但批评者们却质疑学生们基于互联网数据的研究不够严谨,这些数据有的来自于毫不相干的地方,如谷歌地球、博客、军事期刊,还有最令人惊奇地是来自于一部关于中国炮兵的虚构电视剧,这基本上相当于由福克斯的电视剧《24小时》来研究美国的反恐行动。

 

但最强烈的谴责来自那些防核扩散方面的专家们,他们担心,在人们努力减少冷战后世界核武器存量的当下,这项研究将成为支持"要在一段时间内保有核武器"这种观点的论据。

 

在这些政策领域的影响之外,这个项目在这些学生身上打下了深深的烙印――他们中的有些人在毕业后就在国防部和国会找了份研究工作。

 

" 我都不想知道在这玩意儿上我已经花了多长的时间,"22岁的大四学生Nick Yarosh说,他在乔治城大学主修国际政策。"但是如果你问别人他们在大学干了什么,大多数人会说我上了这门课,我进了这个俱乐部。而我则可以说我把这 段时光花在了解读中国的核武器政策和二炮手册上。对于我这种死宅来说,这确实很有意义。"

 

 

学生们的执着

 

65岁的菲利普.A.卡伯(Phillip A. Karber)是这群学生的教授,冷战期间作为顶级战略专家直接为国防部长和参谋长联席会议主席建言。但他在国防领域成名比那还要早,当时他领导着由当时的国家安全顾问亨利.基辛格创立的精英团队来推测苏联军队的弱点。

 

菲利普.A.卡伯自诩一手打造了政府最优秀的情报分析团队。"你想要的不仅仅是那些最顶尖最聪明的家伙,他们还得充满斗志,"他说。

 

2008年菲利普.A.卡伯志愿加入了国防威胁降低局的一个委员会,这是个五角大楼下属的机构,致力于对抗大规模杀伤性武器。

 

在四川省爆发了灾难性的地震的时候,菲利普.A.卡伯所在的委员会的主席注意到中国的新闻媒体报道说数千辐射方面的技术人员奔赴灾区。然后就流出了以奇怪的形状倒塌的山丘的照片,有推测认为当地塌陷的地下隧道里储存了核武器。

 

主席让卡伯弄清楚发生了什么。于是卡伯就又开始寻找分析师了,这次是在乔治城大学的他的学生里找。

 

首批推测者来自他的军备控制课上的学生。每个学期,他都专门腾出一天的时间来向他们展示他收集的那些关于隧道的有意思的录像和文档。然后他提出一个问题:你们认为这意味着什么?

 

"当时我们不知道答案,这真的让我难以丢下它不管,"22岁的毕业生达斯汀.沃克(Dustin Walker)说。"开始时这和其他课程没什么区别,在这天或者那天进行考核,但大家不停的回来(继续研究),甚至在毕业之后都如此。我们为此在课外花了很多功夫。"

 

学生们在宿舍里翻译军事文档。他们在晚上放弃了去看电影,把时间花在马拉松式的对电视片段的回顾上,在这些片段里导弹从一个隧道被带到另一个隧道中。在朋友们读莎士比亚的时候,他们聚集在图书馆里,模拟中国用核武器打击美国的最糟糕结果。

 

随着时间的推移,团队由几个参与者成长到了20人左右。他们中的大多数都把时间花在了研究(中国的)第二炮兵的地下活动上。

 

尽管隧道的存在对少数的研究中国核武力量的专家来说已经是公开的秘密,但几乎没有文件或是公开报道提及这些设施。

 

所以学生们转向了那些中国的公开信息源――军事期刊,当地的新闻报道,中国平民拍摄并贴在网上的照片。中国著名的秘密部队(指二炮)开始公开更多的信息也有 帮助。这些信息的公开是因为中国的领导人们想要向其国民炫耀逐渐增长的实力。互联网上也有一箩筐的线索:新的军事论坛,博客的出现,以及过去模糊的电视报 道被上传到了中国的Youtube上(指优酷网、土豆网等)。有策略的字符串搜索甚至让学生们到某些军事网站的后台下载了诸如中国军事院校的教学大纲这样 的文档。

 

 

苦工和发现

 

主要的问题在于翻译量。

 

每学期,卡伯都只招募得到一到两个讲中文的学生。所以团队搞了一套还凑合的系统来研究他们找到的书籍和文档的扫描件。利用文字抓取软件,他们将这些扫描件转化为中国字,然后塞到翻译软件里去弄出一个粗糙的英文译 本。从这些翻译中,他们挑选出关键段落交给会中文的人进行精译。

 

坏消息是这是个苦力活――花费数小时将文档塞到扫描机里。好消息是在三年之后,学生们已经编纂了一个有关二炮及其隧道的可以用来搜索的数据库,多达140万个单词。

 

结合他们在期刊,视频片段,卫星成像和照片得到的一切讯息,他们已经能够三角定位出几个隧道设施了,并且大概知道每个里面都藏了什么类型的导弹。

 

他们的成果还包括一些小的发现:导弹在这些设施之间是怎么运输的,还有关于"导弹列车",以及那些伪装成客用列车,实际却用来运输中国的长程导弹的车皮的有意思的图片和名目。

 

为了给工作提供支持,卡伯为学生们在他大瀑布城的家里建立了一些搜索室。他买来苹果电脑和巨大的平板显示器便于他们进行视频处理工作,并为那些在夏天里继续工作的学生提供小额研究津贴。有时研究拖到夜里,很多学生就挤在地下室里的空房间倒头大睡。

 

"为此工作期间我变胖了,因为我完全不去健身房了。工作强度就是这么高。"Yarosh说。他今年继续这项研究不是为了学分,而完全是出于兴趣。"这可不是典型的大学课程。卡伯博士只是告诉你目标,然后怎么到达那里完全就是你的自由。这种信任让人感到没有束缚。"

 

部分最大的突破来自卡伯团队中的成员们利用在中国的个人关系获取了一份400页的手册,这份手册由二炮制作,通常只有中国的军方人士才才能看到。

 

另外一个能提供一些内情的资源是两部半虚构的电视系列剧,是讲述二炮军队生活的编年史(译者注:指《天啸》)。

 

些片子的情节一般都经过了戏剧化地夸张――一个系列剧(译注:《导弹旅长》)以一个旅长为中心,讲述了他是如何一边调教一盘散沙的部下,一边在感情上和他 迷人的奥运游泳队教练女友纠缠的。但这些片子仍然包含了一些准确地让人吃惊的关于二炮设施规程的描述,这些描述和军事手册以及其他文档相当吻合。

 

"在有人在银幕上展示了这些隧道间的导弹部署到底是怎么完成的之前,我们手头的资料仅仅是一些零散的碎片。电视剧告诉了我们这些碎片是怎么在一起发挥作用的。"卡伯说。

 

 

更大的中国武器库?

 

200912月,正当学生们做出了一些进展的时候,中国军方首次承认了二炮确实在建立隧道网络。根据国营的CCTV的一则报道,中国有超过3000英里(4800km)的隧道,这大约是波士顿到旧金山的距离。这其中还包括了能够承受数次核打击的深层地下基地。

 

这则新闻震惊了卡伯和他的团队。它让他们坚定了研究方向,但这也说明在东亚之外这些隧道获得的关注有多么的少。

 

尤其是美国媒体对此缺乏兴趣,这也反映了中国的核武在世界上的特殊地位。

 

几十年来,关注的焦点一直都是世界上两个最大的核武库――美国和俄罗斯。前者拥有5000枚可部署的核弹头,后者拥有8000枚。

 

但在被核不扩散条约认可的5个有核国家中,中国是最神密的一个。当美国和俄罗斯受双边条约限制而不得不进行相互检查,确认对方核力量,并禁止了某些特定种类导弹的时候,中国则毫无此类限制。

 

多年来的假设一直是中国的核武库相对较小――大约有80400枚核弹头。

 

中国一直都鼓励这种看法。作为5个原有核国家中唯一承诺不首先使用核武的,它坚持它只保有了"最小核威慑"所需的库存。

 

鉴于中国缺乏透明度,卡伯认为,所有的专家都必须设立某些假设,这些假设通常会错的离谱。卡伯经常给他的学生讲一个例子,那是他和前国防部长弗兰克.C.卡卢奇前往俄罗斯的经历。他们去是为了讨论美国如何在核武库的安保工作上帮助俄罗斯。

 

美国提供了大约20,000个核废料罐来保护核弹头,这个数目是基于美国当时的估计。(俄罗斯的)将军们告诉卡伯他们需要40000个。

 

 

分析家们的怀疑

 

对隧道研究告终的时候,卡伯告诫说同样的事情也可能发生在中国。他认为,根据二炮挖掘的隧道数量,以及导弹部署日益增加的情况,中国的核弹头数量可能已经达到了3000枚。

 

这在军备控制领域引起了激烈的讨论。

 

位忧思科学家联盟的中国核武器分析家Greogory Kulacki,在最近一次在华盛顿的演讲中公开谴责了卡伯的报告。在随后的采访中,他认为3000这一数字是"荒谬的",并认为这项研究所采用的方法 ――尤其在其中包含一些来自中国博客的博文――是不合适的和偷懒的。

 

"他们正在建造隧道的事实,可能正好证实了相反的观点"他反驳道。"有了更多的隧道和更强的抗打击能力,他们可能认为他们不需要这么多的导弹进行回击"。而来自其他人的回应是则比较温和。

 

" 他们的研究是有价值的,但同时也展示了网络的危险性。"美国科学家联合会的汉斯.M.克里斯滕森(Hans M. Kristensen)说。他同时认为一些学生解读卫星图片的行为是错误的。"我认为,他的研究的成功之一,是强调了中国的不确定性,"马克.斯托克斯 Mark Stokes)说,他是智库2049项目研究所的主任。"毫无疑问中国正在挖掘隧道,关注这些行动并提出问题是很有价值的。"

 

据一些五角大楼的官员说,今年国防部的中国军力年度报告首次强调了二炮在新隧道方面的工作,这要部分归功于卡伯报告。今年春天,就在到中国的短期访问之前,当时的国防部长罗伯特.M.盖茨的一些属下听取了这项研究的简报。

 

"我认为应该说高层官员意识到了这项研究的重要性,"一位不愿意被录音的五角大楼官员说。

 

对于卡伯说,引发这样的争论意味着他和他小小的的本科生情报队伍已经获得了成功。

 

"我对中国的核武器的准确数量完全没有概念,但防扩散组织中的任何人也不知道,"他说。"这就是中国的问题,除了他们自己之外没人真正知道。"

 

据一些五角大楼的官员说,今年国防部的中国军力年度报告首次强调了二炮在新隧道方面的工作,这要部分归功于卡伯报告。今年春天,就在到中国的短期访问之前,当时的国防部长罗伯特.M.盖茨的一些属下听取了这项研究的简报。

 

"我认为应该说高层官员意识到了这项研究的重要性,"一位不愿意被录音的五角大楼官员说。

 

对于卡伯说,引发这样的争论意味着他和他小小的的本科生情报军已经获得了成功。

 

"我对中国的核武器的准确数量完全没有概念,但防扩散组织中的任何人也不知道,"他说。"这就是中国的问题,除了他们之外没人真正知道。"

 

原文:Georgetown students shed light on China's tunnel system for nuclear weapons

作者:William Wan

发表:20111130

本文由多名"译者"志愿者联合翻译及校对

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/georgetown-students-shed-light-on-chinas-tunnel-system-for-nuclear-weapons/2011/11/16/gIQA6AmKAO_story.html

 

Georgetown students shed light on China’s tunnel system for nuclear weapons

 

(Ricky Carioti/ WASHINGTON POST ) - From left, William Kim, Ben Buchanan, Iacopo Lash, Nick Iacono and Nick Yarosh meet with Phillip A. Karber, who spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 

 

 

By William Wan, Published: November 30

 

The Chinese have called it their “Underground Great Wall” — a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their country’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.

For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.

 

 

These are clips from Chinese TV news reports and from episodes of a TV docudrama that a group of Georgetown students used to help assemble the largest public database on more than 3,000 miles of tunnels dug by the Chinese to hide and move their missiles and nuclear arms. (Note: The text in these clips was not written by The Washington Post.)

Graphic

 

 

Evidence of China’s nuclear storage system

Led by their hard-charging professor, a former top Pentagon official, they have translated hundreds of documents, combed through satellite imagery, obtained restricted Chinese military documents and waded through hundreds of gigabytes of online data.

The result of their effort? The largest body of public knowledge about thousands of miles of tunnels dug by the Second Artillery Corps, a secretive branch of the Chinese military in charge of protecting and deploying its ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.

The study is yet to be released, but already it has sparked a congressional hearing and been circulated among top officials in the Pentagon, including the Air Force vice chief of staff.

Most of the attention has focused on the 363-page study’s provocative conclusion — that China’s nuclear arsenal could be many times larger than the well-established estimates of arms-control experts.

“It’s not quite a bombshell, but those thoughts and estimates are being checked against what people think they know based on classified information,” said a Defense Department strategist who would discuss the study only on the condition of anonymity.

The study’s critics, however, have questioned the unorthodox Internet-based research of the students, who drew from sources as disparate as Google Earth, blogs, military journals and, perhaps most startlingly, a fictionalized TV docudrama about Chinese artillery soldiers — the rough equivalent of watching Fox’s TV show “24” for insights into U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

But the strongest condemnation has come from nonproliferation experts who worry that the study could fuel arguments for maintaining nuclear weapons in an era when efforts are being made to reduce the world’s post-Cold War stockpiles.

Beyond its impact in the policy world, the project has made a profound mark on the students — including some who have since graduated and taken research jobs with the Defense Department and Congress.

“I don’t even want to know how many hours I spent on it,” said Nick Yarosh, 22, an international politics senior at Georgetown. “But you ask people what they did in college, most just say I took this class, I was in this club. I can say I spent it reading Chinese nuclear strategy and Second Artillery manuals. For a nerd like me, that really means something.”

 

For students, an obsession

 

The students’ professor, Phillip A. Karber, 65, had spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But it was his early work in defense that cemented his reputation, when he led an elite research team created by Henry Kissinger, who was then the national security adviser, to probe the weaknesses of Soviet forces.

Karber prided himself on recruiting the best intelligence analysts in the government. “You didn’t just want the highest-ranking or brightest guys, you wanted the ones who were hungry,” he said.

In 2008, Karber was volunteering on a committee for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a Pentagon agency charged with countering weapons of mass destruction.

After a devastating earthquake struck Sichuan province, the chairman of Karber’s committee noticed Chinese news accounts reporting that thousands of radiation technicians were rushing to the region. Then came pictures of strangely collapsed hills and speculation that the caved-in tunnels in the area had held nuclear weapons.

Find out what’s going on, the chairman asked Karber, who began looking for analysts again — this time among his students at Georgetown.

The first inductees came from his arms-control classes. Each semester, he set aside a day to show them tantalizing videos and documents he had begun gathering on the tunnels. Then he concluded with a simple question: What do you think it means?

“The fact that there were no answers to that really got to me,” said former student Dustin Walker, 22. “It started out like any other class, tests on this day or that, but people kept coming back, even after graduation. ... We spent hours on our own outside of class on this stuff.”

The students worked in their dorms translating military texts. They skipped movie nights for marathon sessions reviewing TV clips of missiles being moved from one tunnel structure to another. While their friends read Shakespeare, they gathered in the library to war-game worst-case scenarios of a Chinese nuclear strike on the United States.

Over time, the team grew from a handful of contributors to roughly two dozen. Most spent their time studying the subterranean activities of the Second Artillery Corps.

While the tunnels’ existence was something of an open secret among the handful of experts studying China’s nuclear arms, almost no papers or public reports on the structures existed.

So the students turned to publicly available Chinese sources — military journals, local news reports and online photos posted by Chinese citizens. It helped that China’s famously secretive military was beginning to release more information, driven by its leaders’ eagerness to show off China’s growing power to its citizens.

The Internet also generated a raft of leads: new military forums, blogs and once-obscure local TV reports now posted on the Chinese equivalents of YouTube. Strategic string searches even allowed the students to get behind some military Web sites and download documents such as syllabuses taught at China’s military academies.

 

Drudgery and discoveries

 

The main problem was the sheer amount of translation required.

Each semester, Karber managed to recruit only one or two Chinese-speaking students. So the team assembled a makeshift system to scan images of the books and documents they found. Using text-capture software, they converted those pictures into Chinese characters, which were fed into translation software to produce crude English versions. From those, they highlighted key passages for finer translation by the Chinese speakers.

The downside was the drudgery — hours feeding pages into the scanner. The upside was that after three years, the students had compiled a searchable database of more than 1.4 million words on the Second Artillery and its tunnels.

By combining everything they found in the journals, video clips, satellite imagery and photos, they were able to triangulate the location of several tunnel structures, with a rough idea of what types of missiles were stored in each.

Their work also yielded smaller revelations: how the missiles were kept mobile and transported from structure to structure, as well as tantalizing images and accounts of a “missile train” and disguised passenger rail cars to move China’s long-range missiles.

To facilitate the work, Karber set up research rooms for the students at his home in Great Falls. He bought Apple computers and large flat-screen monitors for their video work and obtained small research grants for those who wanted to work through the summer. When work ran late, many crashed in his basement’s spare room.

“I got fat working on this thing because I didn’t go to the gym anymore. It was that intense,” said Yarosh, who has continued on the project this year not for credit but purely as a hobby. “It’s not the typical college course. Dr. Karber just tells you the objective and gives you total freedom to figure out how to get there. That level of trust can be liberating.”

Some of the biggest breakthroughs came after members of Karber’s team used personal connections in China to obtain a 400-page manual produced by the Second Artillery and usually available only to China’s military personnel.

Another source of insight was a pair of semi-fictionalized TV series chronicling the lives of Second Artillery soldiers.

The plots were often overwrought with melodrama — one series centers on a brigade commander who struggles to whip his slipshod unit into shape while juggling relationship problems with his glamorous Olympic-swim-coach girlfriend. But they also included surprisingly accurate depictions of artillery units’ procedures that lined up perfectly with the military manual and other documents.

“Until someone showed us on screen how exactly these missile deployments were done from the tunnels, we only had disparate pieces. The TV shows gave us the big picture of how it all worked together,” Karber said.

 

A bigger Chinese arsenal?

 

In December 2009, just as the students began making progress, the Chinese military admitted for the first time that the Second Artillery had indeed been building a network of tunnels. According to a report by state-run CCTV, China had more than 3,000 miles of tunnels — roughly the distance between Boston and San Francisco — including deep underground bases that could withstand multiple nuclear attacks.

The news shocked Karber and his team. It confirmed the direction of their research, but it also highlighted how little attention the tunnels were garnering outside East Asia.

The lack of interest, particularly in the U.S. media, demonstrated China’s unique position in the world of nuclear arms.

For decades, the focus has been on the two powers with the largest nuclear stockpiles by far — the United States, with 5,000 warheads available for deployment, and Russia, which has 8,000.

But of the five nuclear weapons states recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, China has been the most secretive. While the United States and Russia are bound by bilateral treaties that require on-site inspections, disclosure of forces and bans on certain missiles, China is not.

The assumption for years has been that the Chinese arsenal is relatively small — anywhere from 80 to 400 warheads.

China has encouraged that perception. As the only one of the five original nuclear states with a no-first-use policy, it insists that it keeps a small stockpile only for “minimum deterrence.”

Given China’s lack of transparency, Karber argues, all the experts have to work with are assumptions, which can often be dead wrong. As an example, Karber often recounts to his students his experience of going to Russia with former defense secretary Frank C. Carlucci to discuss U.S. help in securing the Russian nuclear arsenal.

The United States had offered Russia about 20,000 canisters designed to safeguard warheads — a number based on U.S. estimates at the time.

The generals told Karber they needed 40,000.

 

Skepticism among analysts

 

At the end of the tunnel study, Karber cautions that the same could happen with China. Based on the number of tunnels the Second Artillery is digging and its increasing deployment of missiles, he argues, China’s nuclear warheads could number as many as 3,000.

It is an assertion that has provoked heated responses from the arms-control community.

Gregory Kulacki, a China nuclear analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, publicly condemned Karber’s report at a recent lecture in Washington. In an interview afterward, he called the 3,000 figure “ridiculous” and said the study’s methodology — especially its inclusion of posts from Chinese bloggers — was “incompetent and lazy.”

“The fact that they’re building tunnels could actually reinforce the exact opposite point,” he argued. “With more tunnels and a better chance of survivability, they may think they don’t need as many warheads to strike back.”

Reaction from others has been more moderate.

“Their research has value, but it also shows the danger of the Internet,” said Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Kristensen faulted some of the students’ interpretation of the satellite images.

“One thing his report accomplishes, I think, is it highlights the uncertainty about what China has,” said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank. “There’s no question China’s been investing in tunnels, and to look at those efforts and pose this question is worthwhile.”

This year, the Defense Department’s annual report on China’s military highlighted for the first time the Second Artillery’s work on new tunnels, partly a result of Karber’s report, according to some Pentagon officials. And in the spring, shortly before a visit to China, some in the office of then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates were briefed on the study.

“I think it’s fair to say senior officials here have keyed upon the importance of this work,” said one Pentagon officer who was not authorized to speak on the record.

For Karber, provoking such debate means that he and his small army of undergrads have succeeded.

“I don’t have the slightest idea how many nuclear weapons China really has, but neither does anyone else in the arms-control community,” he said. “That’s the problem with China — no one really knows except them.”

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AnonymousEric

12/1/2011 8:00 PM GMT+0800

Kulacki is a smart guy, but one has to wonder exactly what methodology he and his colleagues use? Never seemed to be more than repeating benign statements from the IC and the kind of wishful thinking he reveals in the article. Karber put the exercise in the right framework: We don't know, but the point is to ask questions and consider alternative explanations from multiple data points. Three cheers.

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Lee1865

12/1/2011 2:41 AM GMT+0800

It's pretty clear China does not intend to go through the humiliation of the past two centuries ever again. Can we blame them? Chinese citizens are vaccinated against smallpox. Does that mean it intends to unleash smallpox on the world? Or does it mean China has chosen to be more prepared than we are? 
 
This news would only be shocking if the American military is unaware of the tunnels & the nukes not just in China, but in the rest of the world, as well. We spend a fortune o...See Moren our national defense. Let's hope it's actually buying us something. See Less

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joe-hill

11/30/2011 11:44 PM GMT+0800

Lots of 'trinangulated' speculation here. Yet, even at "3000 warheads", the US arsenal is considerably larger. And the US still is the only country to have used this weaponry - and on civilians! 
 
Interesting that the WaPo - again - saved the most damning comments toward the very end of the article. I'd trust Kulacki more than the undergraduates recruited on this project by a former Pentagon hawk. Again, this demonstrates WaPo's neocon agenda.

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joe-hill

11/30/2011 11:44 PM GMT+0800

Lots of 'trinangulated' speculation here. Yet, even at "3000 warheads", the US arsenal is considerably larger. And the US still is the only country to have used this weaponry - and on civilians! 
 
Interesting that the WaPo - again - saved the most damning comments toward the very end of the article. I'd trust Kulacki more than the undergraduates recruited on this project by a former Pentagon hawk. Again, this demonstrates WaPo's neocon agenda.

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RLTRNLR

11/30/2011 11:46 PM GMT+0800

Everybody is a civilian when a nuclear weapon is used. The vast majority of nukes are in New Mexico, along with massive quantities of nuke waste.

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ben18

11/30/2011 11:51 PM GMT+0800

Hard to identify a "neocon agenda" in a paper that has distorted the news to support the Spender in Chief and his pro-Islam foreign policies. This piece may be the most useful the WaPo has run about China in recent memory.  
 
Of course they don't mention that the Chinese government vacuums up open source info to gain intelligence on us and probably has hundreds or thousands of projects like this Georgetown one to analyze and assimilate that info.

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joe-hill

11/30/2011 11:53 PM GMT+0800

Yes and no. There are battlefield "tactical" weapons, but Hiroshime and Nagasaki were cities with large civilian populations. But I don't disagree with your larger prenmise.

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RLTRNLR

11/30/2011 11:53 PM GMT+0800

USA under 300 years of age; China well over 5,000. Age matters.

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joe-hill

11/30/2011 11:55 PM GMT+0800

@ ben18 Another idiotic comment. This project began before Obama came into office. I'm not a fan of Obama, but pro-Islam polcies? Time for another dose.

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AnnsThought

11/30/2011 11:57 PM GMT+0800

Why trust Kulacki's view? He suggests the tunnels might be fallout shelters for "survivability". He perpetuates the myth that a nuclear war is survivable. If you're in a shelter and survive the initial blasts, you're only delaying your inevitable demise. The land would be a useless radioactive wasteland for thousands of years.

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RLTRNLR

12/1/2011 12:00 AM GMT+0800

Absolutely, just take a boat trip to Bikini Atol and live it up on the sweet radiated coconuts!

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erm1957

12/1/2011 12:49 AM GMT+0800

"And the US still is the only country to have used this weaponry - and on civilians! " 
 
Joe, if you are American then you are a traitor to this country. Lest we forget, the U.S. was at war with Japan and the Japanese killed large numbers of civilians themselves and exacted a level of brutality against those they conquered which was unprecidented. 
 
Read some history before implying that the U.S. simply dropped bombs to murder civilians. 
I don't think...See More the Japanese of WW2 deserve your loyalty. See Less

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vzepijdu

12/1/2011 1:01 AM GMT+0800

"and the US is the only country to have used this weaponry" We were at war! Are you ignorant of that fact or would you have preferred 250000 more American dead (possibly your grandfather, if he was here then) soldiers needed to get Japan to surrender from ground attacks.

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patrichale

12/1/2011 1:05 AM GMT+0800

'WaPo's neocon agenda"? Talk about an oxymoron - like military intelligence as this article describes all so well. More like China's export program to the USA: "Nukes for toys." The good news is that after two dozen nukes, every one after that is simply aredundant waste of money. Let China build all they want as we get rid of our land-based missiles as the anachronisms they are.

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joe20895

12/1/2011 1:16 AM GMT+0800

Hahahahaha! You know your paper is actually moderate when the right-wing crazies and the left-wing loonies both think your paper is biased against their way of thinking.

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msiddiqu

12/1/2011 1:18 AM GMT+0800

I will give students credit for doing research and that's about it. Reading anything beyond is immaturish. Moreover, we do expect a secretive country to do lot more than revealed in this article. This nuclear genie is out of the bottle now. Containing it will be hard. We have to live with it. More countries have it less probability of use. We need to develop one doctrine, do push a nuclear state to the corner.

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erm117

12/1/2011 1:27 AM GMT+0800

@erm1957 and vzepijdu 
The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was an act of war, no different from the firebombing of Tokyo or the German bombing of London. It was brutal, but still legitimate. However, the Nagasaki bombing was different for several reasons. First, the Japanese high command were debating surrender (and declassified intelligence reports indicate that the Truman knew this). The war was likely ending anyway, 70,000 more people didn't need to die. Second, the Soviet Union had mobiliz...See Moreed against Japan, just hours before the bomb was dropped. The bomb dropped on Nagasaki was one of the first acts of the Cold War, designed to intimidate the Soviet Union and guarantee that Japan was in the United States' sphere of influence. Hiroshima was war, Nagasaki was mass murder for political purposes. See Less

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RodHead

12/1/2011 2:11 AM GMT+0800

"...the Soviet Union had mobilized against Japan, just hours before the bomb was dropped..." 
 
That's because Stalin KNEW about the bomb(s) and was making a land-grab before the Japanese surrendered.

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CSp1

12/1/2011 2:20 AM GMT+0800

Rod, what "land" was Stalin attempting to "grab"? I can't believe Japan is even 1x1000th the size of Russia's overall land mass; which, incidentally, extends further west than Japan. 
 
PS, and this is just a general observation, when you fully capitalize one word in your post to make a point you look like an IDIOT. We can all read and garner what information you're trying to convey. Give it a rest.

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Harry_Callahan

12/1/2011 2:27 AM GMT+0800

joe_hill = guilty of the moral equivilancy fallacy. The Japanese were warned, and chose to disregard the warnings. The use of atomic weapons significantly shortened the duration of WWII and obviated the need for an invasion of the Janaese mainland, potentially sparing many American lives.  
 

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WorkersOfTheWorld

12/1/2011 3:16 AM GMT+0800

Joe-Hill is obviously ignorant. He must not know of the terror bombings (US term) we did in Europe, e.g., on Dresden, and on Tokyo, among many others.

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Ned-NYC

12/1/2011 3:22 AM GMT+0800

Ask any of the Asian countries, except India, if Japan deserved to get hit with the A-Bomb back then - there would be a lot who would say they wished the US had hit Japan more than twice. Considering how many civilians were killed or enslaved by the Japanese in WW II, you shouldn't be surprised how many people think you're full of crap with your moral high ground on the use of the atomic bomb.

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danacruikshank

12/1/2011 3:22 AM GMT+0800

CSp1 - the Kurill (sp?) islands were held by Japan during WWII and had traditionally been claimed by Russia/USSR. They fought a war over them (which Russia essentially lost) in the early 20th century. Stalin snatched them back when it was clear Japan was facing nuclear annihilation.

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rush_n_crush

12/1/2011 4:58 AM GMT+0800

It was pure racism that you bombed the Japanese with nuclear weapons and not the Germans. Everyone on the planet knows that. The white men in D.C. would not bomb the white men in Berlin with nukes. Stop perpetrating such fraud.

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shanti2

12/1/2011 5:16 AM GMT+0800

This discussion of the past use of the a bomb is useless. I lived through it so I'm not ignorant of the moral question, just that it's a useless discussion. What would be useful is a discussion of what the result would be if there is ever an exchange of nuclear weapons between belligerents. If such a situation ever occurred it would be impossible to control, and could quite ,simply, destroy life on the earth. To continue to think that so many countries can have such weapons and not ever use th...See Moreem is insane. If any one questions that they might be used, you have only to consider that the Israelis were loading their nukes for use against the Arabs in the Yom Kippur war, and would have used them if the war had gone against them. It is conceivable that a similar situation could occur elsewhere. Perhaps future archeologists will dig up the ruins of our "civilization" and come to the ultimate conclusion that we died of insanity. See Less

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Andrew90

12/1/2011 6:25 AM GMT+0800

You don't realize that the number of warhead of US of 5,000 is not accurate? It's around 1,500 right now for both USA and Russia. If China indeed has 3,000 then it is certainly worthwhile to worry about it.

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j3hess

12/1/2011 7:05 AM GMT+0800

rush_n_crush, the bomb was not yet ready when Germany surrendered - anybody who firebombed Dresden would have been equally willing to use the nuclear weapons - it was fear of the German bomb program that won FDR's support for the Manhattan Project.

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tataglia

12/1/2011 11:09 AM GMT+0800

the chines perfesser killed millions in it's collectivization,cultural revolution of the 60s,machinegunned 250-500 people at tienman square in 89; 
yer damned right .TheUS arsenal is bigger, & I hope it stays that way. 
We used the godawful nuclear weapons on chinas' nemesis japan who killed 1 million chinese, 
we killed 100k japanese ivilians ,thereabouts to knock off the totalitarians who had brainwashed civilians into 
a masada mindset,,,,,they folded,lea...See Morerned the drag of peaceful democracy,,which,along with the thriving democracy of south korea, now a thorn in the craw of the chinese,and their daffy duck n korean collegues. 
Its evidence of something that we do not yet know. 
the chinese are hard pressed to get modern in every sense that the west has,using some elements of free markets,while begging borrowing,stealing any electronic means to increase this,while riding herd on dissidents,it is china which is surrounded by freedom and its economic by products,wealth,,stay away from neolib fear & loathing perfesser, 
it messes up restful sleep See Less

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tjschul1

12/2/2011 2:08 AM GMT+0800

"US still is the only country to have used this weaponry - and on civilians! " 
 
Looks like this BS is still alive and well. You would do well to study history before trying to fault the US for the actions it took to end that brutal conflict. If we had not used those weapons, we would have been forced to shoot/bomb/napalm half the population of that island. Study a little before spouting the blame America first rhetoric.

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joshnarins

12/8/2011 2:51 AM GMT+0800

It looks like the Washington Post was had by far worse than "24," but an anonymous USENET post from 1995 which was loosely based on a Chinese magazine article which itself was blatantly ripped off from an American publication. 
 
Yet again, we are repeating our doomsday scenarios back to ourselves. Anyone remember the nonsense that got us into Iraq? 
 
http://lewis.armscontro...See Morelwonk.com/archive/4799/coll... See Less

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解放军国之重器藏原始山林 大山内部被挖空

米尔军情网    2012-02-04 18:49:34

  这是记者见过最特别的一张中国地图,没有星罗棋布的省市乡镇,也不见纵横交错的山川道路,一个个经纬坐标背后,潜藏着托举长剑问天的导弹阵地。

我们现在所处位置,就是这份地图上的某一个坐标。环顾四周,群山连绵,我们跟随第二炮兵某工程设计所某野外作业组,劈开密密麻麻的灌木和齐腰深的杂草,深一脚浅一脚地前行。刚入初冬,山风已经寒意逼人,刮在脸上如刀割一般。

  第二炮兵某工程设计所,是我军战略导弹部队的“工程设计师”。此番深山莽林之行,是为新建导弹阵地踏勘地形,换句话说,就是为神剑选“巢”。导弹,只 有和阵地结合起来,才算真正意义上傲啸九天的大国长剑。阵地工程建设,勘察设计是龙头,直接影响阵地的功能质量和生存防护能力。   一路艰难跋涉,记者发现这支由博士硕士组成的队伍里,每个人都善走山路,就连几名鬓染白霜的老专家,翻山越岭也如履平地。细想之下,也不为奇,作为导 弹筑巢人,转战群山对他们而言,已是一种常态化生活。

  第二炮兵工程部队官兵深山行军。韩一杭摄

  资料图:大山中的导弹阵地 张建刚摄

  记者曾翻看过他们的科研日志,几乎每一页都写于深山戈壁、莽林雪野。他们每一个人身上,都有一串串的故事和奇遇:踩到野猪夹子,遭遇泥石流,数九寒天摔进冰河,被困荒山几天几夜……

  进到预定点位,大家忙碌起来,岩心钻开足马力钻向大山腹地。定位、测距、钻岩、取样……“为导弹选一个‘巢’,比找一个称心的对象还难!”该所总工程 师谭可可说,山体高度、形状、地质情况以及周边环境,都必须满足很多严格甚至是苛刻的条件,需要勘察设计人员反复量测、整体衡量。

  突然,空中响起轰鸣声,仰头一看,一架小型飞行器缓缓升空,对大山进行低空扫描和拍摄。随着飞行器获取数据的导入,一幅三维地形图在笔记本电脑上快速生成。记者了解到,将更多信息化技术引入阵地工程勘察设计,是新一代“阵地设计师”们的执着追求。

  勘察地图上,慢慢勾画出各种标线、公式、画图……一个个精确数据,将这片人迹罕至的原始山林,转化为战略视野里的“导弹地理”,成为决策部门论证报告上的可靠数据支撑。

  看着一个个紧张忙碌的身影,一张张神情专注的面孔,记者耳边回荡起该所所长陈朝东不无自豪的话语:半个世纪以来,我们完成的设计图纸,面积可以覆盖北 京城。这浩如烟海的设计图上,每一个经纬坐标,都是“阵地设计师”们,像这样燕子垒巢般一点一点踏勘丈量得来。难以想像,其中渗透多少血汗艰辛,多少牺牲 奉献……

  神剑飞天惊天地,有赖俯首筑巢人。该所政委汪利平告诉记者,几十年来,一代代“工程设计师”在国防工程通用化、信息化等领域取得重大突破,在阵地多元化设计、伪装设计上创造了许多创新理念,先后获得军队优秀设计奖6项、军队优质工程奖5项、军队科技进步奖19项。

  天色渐暗,我们在山腰上架起帐篷宿营。几位工程师顾不得吃晚饭,忙着将白天采集的地球物理勘探、围岩量测、地质预报等数据录入地质勘察信息数据库。月下营帐,官兵们唱起他们最爱的《设计者之歌》——

  千条江河布阵,万里云山为棋,为了钢浇铁铸的阵地,我们穿行在祖国的崇山峻岭,不畏山高路险,不畏酷暑严寒,精心勘察,缜密思考,无声的誓言写在导弹阵地……

  美媒惊人曝光:汶川地震让中国失去大量核武器

  美国华尔街日报24日文章称,中国正在进行大规模核武器现代化努力公国,包括引入可投送多个弹头的新一代洲际弹道弹道。据估计,目前中国已部署将近 1300枚可安装核或常规弹头的战术和战区导弹系统。根据美国前美国防务官员、现乔治敦大学亚洲军控项目负责人菲利普·卡伯的话说,中国现在每辆移动发射 车可以配备多达五枚弹头。

  中国建3000英里隧道保护核弹

  美媒称,菲利普·卡伯曾于2008年受五角大楼国防威胁降低局委托,调查中国“地下长城”项目。此次调查引发了卡伯对中国核武库规模的怀疑。他指出, 中国大兴隧道建设与已知中国核武库规模相差甚远,并据此怀疑中国维持有大规模核武库,进而推测中国每台移动发射车或许配备有多达5枚导弹能力。不过,为了 避免引起不必要的恐慌,卡伯也强调称自己的研究不能代替真实的情报收集工作

  据称,五角大楼之所以对中国“地下长城”项目感兴趣,是因为四川5·12大地震后,除普通救援部队之外,北京方面还向灾区派遣了数千名隶属于二炮部队的辐射专家。二炮部队负责解放军的战略核力量,包括大部分核武器。

  事实上,二炮部队的参与并非完全出乎意料,毕竟四川是中国重要核设施基地。更有意思的是,有报道称,山坡坍塌后,大量巨大的混凝土碎块被暴露在外。这种传闻使人们猜测,此次地震可能使中国丢失了部分藏于地下隧道或仓库内的核弹。

  卡伯随后开始着手利用卫星图像、汉语及其他公开材料搜集更多曾被西方忽视的信息。在这一过程中,历史资料也起到了很大的作用。近两千年以来,隧道一直是中国军事文化的一部分。

  据称,毛泽东尤其痴迷于此,他下令在北京挖掘了一个巨大的地下城;上世纪六十年代末,他又下令在中国中部地区挖掘“第三道防线”,预防可能发生的俄罗斯核攻击。这个规模庞大的工程包括一个地下核反应堆、以及中国第一代核弹弹头的储藏设施。

  美媒称,中国“地道挖掘热”非但没有随着毛泽东的逝去而结束,甚至有所加强。2009年12月,在新中国建国六十周年大庆期间,解放军宣布二炮部队修 建了一条累计3000英里长的隧道——其中近半是在过去十五年内修建的。为使这一数字变得更加鲜活,卡伯形容说:“你从新罕布什尔州出发到芝加哥,然后到 达拉斯,再后到提华纳,这应该是大约3000英里。”

  二炮如此痴迷于隧道?要确保核武库安全,还有其他方法可用。美媒称,即使在劳动力廉价的中国,要建造质量佳、照明好、高度适宜、均长六英里的隧道,也 是一项十分浩大的工程。隧道的长度与中国相对较小的核武库规模并不相称——据信,中国核弹头数量在240枚至400枚之间。卡伯说:“为每一枚弹头建造长 十英里的隧道?这不合常理,有点过

  中国每辆移动发射车可配备五枚核弹

  美媒称,这个想法促使卡伯更细致地研究西方对中国核武库的估计。上世纪六十年代末,美国军方曾预测称,到1973年时,中国可以部署435枚核弹头。基于这一推测的直线推论表明,中国现在可能拥有大约3000枚核弹头。

  1984年,国防情报局估计,到1994年中国可能有818枚核弹头,现在有1000多枚。最近中国媒体的报道,这一数据大概处于2350 到 3500之间,也就是说,中国过去10年平均每年的核弹头生产大约有200枚。相比之下,自然资源保护委员会的估计显示,中国的武库在1980年左右时达 到最高峰,之后便或多或少保持平稳。

  美媒称,美国科学家联盟的汉斯·克里斯滕森坚称,中国“并没有试图让其核库存,达到与美国或俄罗斯比肩的程度。他们并没有在这些隧道里,隐藏数以千百 计的导弹。”他补充道,这些隧道是中国“为隐藏他们所拥有的、保护他们相对有限的导弹力量而采取的典型方式”。这种说法并没有让卡伯信服。

  他说:“修建这样一公里的隧道的成本,几乎相当于4 或5个核武器以及几个发射系统的成本”。 为什么中国要投入这样巨大的资源,建设一个隧道防护网络,而对这些隧道计划保护的武器投入相当较少的资源呢?

  美媒称,还有一个问题,那就是中国所宣称的核政策是否可信。中国坚称,中国贯彻“不首先使用核武器”的政策。不过,2005年,解放军少将曾对《华尔 街日报》表示,倘若台湾与大陆发生战争,如果华盛顿帮助台北的话,北京会对华盛顿的“成千或者两百个”城市发动核攻击。中国还宣称,坚持贯彻维持一小股核 力量的政策,它被一位中国将军称为“最低限度的报复工具”。对于这一点,卡伯也存有疑问。

  美媒称,当前,中国正在进行一场主要的核现代化,包括建造新一代洲际弹道导弹,据信该导弹可以携带多枚弹头。而且,据估计中国还部署了近1300枚战术及战区导弹,这些导弹既能携带核弹头,也可以携带常规弹头——如果发生战争,这种两用性将赋予北京政府极大的优势。

  卡伯还怀疑中国每台移动发射车或许配备有多达5枚导弹能力。如果是这样,就有助于解释已观测到的中国移动发射车的数量(认为中国导弹数量相对少的理由之一)与卡伯对核武库真实规模的猜测之间的差距。

  外界可能低估中国核武库规模

  中国庞大而稳固的武库有何用意?几十年来,核专家已经明白,“打赢”一场核战争的关键在于拥有强大的二次打击能力,而这需要有一支庞大和可存活部队。 美媒称,2009年“地下长城”完工时,二炮提出了一些自己的构想,称可给予中国“抵御核打击”的能力;“台独无望”;中国无需“害怕和美国之间的决 战”。克里斯滕森将之称为标准的政权宣传,指出“中国擅长以虚假消息作为信息战形式。”然而,不清楚为什么美国军控界很愿意接受北京的核理论声明。 米尔网 www.junshijia.com

  卡伯对此有些想法。他认为,对中国核武库的过低预测基于对现有导弹发射车、移动发射装置、飞机和潜艇的估计。除可能存在的错误估计之外,军控专家也在 努力淡化解放军的战略努力,以避免美国做出“不必要的”反应。中国向来被视为是一个“负责任的”核国家的榜样,但中国核武库规模远远大于比人们的预想,却 有可能是裁核倡议者最终必须接受的事实。

  卡伯赞成对华协商军控。他也再三强调称自己的研究远没有权威性,不能代替真实的情报收集工作。他还承认,有可能——仅仅是有可能——中国铺设隧道是为 了以后存储武器、发射台和导弹。然而,中国大兴隧道建设却是毋庸置疑的。而且,人们也没有忽视卡伯的研究,更不用说他它隐含的意义,与俄罗斯进行核武削减 计划的美国政府更是不会忽视这一问题。各方应立即考虑这种假设。中国的可能的作法是,以自己的方式,在美国已经放弃梦想的领域谋取主导权。

 

美媒:汶川地震让中国失去大量核武器!

华尔街日报    2012-02-06 21:37:56

  美国华尔街日报文章称,中国正在进行大规模核武器现代化努力公国,包括引入可投送多个弹头的新一代洲际弹道弹道。据估计,目前中国已部署将近1300 枚可安装核或常规弹头的战术和战区导弹系统。根据美国前美国防务官员、现乔治敦大学亚洲军控项目负责人菲利普· 卡伯的话说,中国现在每辆移动发射车可以配备多达五枚弹头。

中国建3000英里隧道保护核弹

  美媒称,菲利普·卡伯曾于2008年受五角大楼国防威胁降低局委托,调查中国“地下长城”项目。此次调查引发了卡伯对中国核武库规模的怀疑。他指出, 中国大兴隧道建设与已知中国核武库规模相差甚远,并据此怀疑中国维持有大规模核武库,进而推测中国每台移动发射车或许配备有多达5枚导弹能力。不过,为了 避免引起不必要的恐慌,卡伯也强调称自己的研究不能代替真实的情报收集工作

  据称,五角大楼之所以对中国“地下长城”项目感兴趣,是因为四川5·12大地震后,除普通救援部队之外,北京方面还向灾区派遣了数千名隶属于二炮部队的辐射专家。二炮部队负责解放军的战略核力量,包括大部分核武器。

  事实上,二炮部队的参与并非完全出乎意料,毕竟四川是中国重要核设施基地。更有意思的是,有报道称,山坡坍塌后,大量巨大的混凝土碎块被暴露在外。这种传闻使人们猜测,此次地震可能使中国丢失了部分藏于地下隧道或仓库内的核弹。

  卡伯随后开始着手利用卫星图像、汉语及其他公开材料搜集更多曾被西方忽视的信息。在这一过程中,历史资料也起到了很大的作用。近两千年以来,隧道一直是中国军事文化的一部分。

  据称,毛泽东尤其痴迷于此,他下令在北京挖掘了一个巨大的地下城;上世纪六十年代末,他又下令在中国中部地区挖掘“第三道防线”,预防可能发生的俄罗斯核攻击。这个规模庞大的工程包括一个地下核反应堆、以及中国第一代核弹弹头的储藏设施。

  美媒称,中国“地道挖掘热”非但没有随着毛泽东的逝去而结束,甚至有所加强。2009年12月,在新中国建国六十周年大庆期间,解放军宣布二炮部队修 建了一条累计3000英里长的隧道——其中近半是在过去十五年内修建的。为使这一数字变得更加鲜活,卡伯形容说:“你从新罕布什尔州出发到芝加哥,然后到 达拉斯,再后到提华纳,这应该是大约3000英里。”

  二炮如此痴迷于隧道?要确保核武库安全,还有其他方法可用。美媒称,即使在劳动力廉价的中国,要建造质量佳、照明好、高度适宜、均长六英里的隧道,也 是一项十分浩大的工程。隧道的长度与中国相对较小的核武库规模并不相称——据信,中国核弹头数量在240枚至400枚之间。卡伯说:“为每一枚弹头建造长 十英里的隧道?这不合常理,有点过分估计。”

  中国每辆移动发射车可配备五枚核弹

  美媒称,这个想法促使卡伯更细致地研究西方对中国核武库的估计。上世纪六十年代末,美国军方曾预测称,到1973年时,中国可以部署435枚核弹头。基于这一推测的直线推论表明,中国现在可能拥有大约3000枚核弹头。

  1984年,国防情报局估计,到1994年中国可能有818枚核弹头,现在有1000多枚。最近中国媒体的报道,这一数据大概处于2350 到 3500之间,也就是说,中国过去10年平均每年的核弹头生产大约有200枚。相比之下,自然资源保护委员会的估计显示,中国的武库在1980年左右时达 到最高峰,之后便或多或少保持平稳。

  美媒称,美国科学家联盟的汉斯·克里斯滕森坚称,中国“并没有试图让其核库存,达到与美国或俄罗斯比肩的程度。他们并没有在这些隧道里,隐藏数以千百 计的导弹。”他补充道,这些隧道是中国“为隐藏他们所拥有的、保护他们相对有限的导弹力量而采取的典型方式”。这种说法并没有让卡伯信服。

  他说:“修建这样一公里的隧道的成本,几乎相当于4 或5个核武器以及几个发射系统的成本”。 为什么中国要投入这样巨大的资源,建设一个隧道防护网络,而对这些隧道计划保护的武器投入相当较少的资源呢?

  美媒称,还有一个问题,那就是中国所宣称的核政策是否可信。中国坚称,中国贯彻“不首先使用核武器”的政策。不过,2005年,解放军少将曾对《华尔 街日报》表示,倘若台湾与大陆发生战争,如果华盛顿帮助台北的话,北京会对华盛顿的“成千或者两百个”城市发动核攻击。中国还宣称,坚持贯彻维持一小股核 力量的政策,它被一位中国将军称为“最低限度的报复工具”。对于这一点,卡伯也存有疑问。

  美媒称,当前,中国正在进行一场主要的核现代化,包括建造新一代洲际弹道导弹,据信该导弹可以携带多枚弹头。而且,据估计中国还部署了近1300枚战术及战区导弹,这些导弹既能携带核弹头,也可以携带常规弹头——如果发生战争,这种两用性将赋予北京政府极大的优势。

  卡伯还怀疑中国每台移动发射车或许配备有多达5枚导弹能力。如果是这样,就有助于解释已观测到的中国移动发射车的数量(认为中国导弹数量相对少的理由之一)与卡伯对核武库真实规模的猜测之间的差距。

  外界可能低估中国核武库规模

  中国庞大而稳固的武库有何用意?几十年来,核专家已经明白,“打赢”一场核战争的关键在于拥有强大的二次打击能力,而这需要有一支庞大和可存活部队。 美媒称,2009年“地下长城”完工时,二炮提出了一些自己的构想,称可给予中国“抵御核打击”的能力;“台独无望”;中国无需“害怕和美国之间的决 战”。克里斯滕森将之称为标准的政权宣传,指出“中国擅长以虚假消息作为信息战形式。”然而,不清楚为什么美国军控界很愿意接受北京的核理论声明。

  卡伯对此有些想法。他认为,对中国核武库的过低预测基于对现有导弹发射车、移动发射装置、飞机和潜艇的估计。除可能存在的错误估计之外,军控专家也在 努力淡化解放军的战略努力,以避免美国做出“不必要的”反应。中国向来被视为是一个“负责任的”核国家的榜样,但中国核武库规模远远大于比人们的预想,却 有可能是裁核倡议者最终必须接受的事实。

  卡伯赞成对华协商军控。他也再三强调称自己的研究远没有权威性,不能代替真实的情报收集工作。他还承认,有可能——仅仅是有可能——中国铺设隧道是为 了以后存储武器、发射台和导弹。然而,中国大兴隧道建设却是毋庸置疑的。而且,人们也没有忽视卡伯的研究,更不用说他它隐含的意义,与俄罗斯进行核武削减 计划的美国政府更是不会忽视这一问题。各方应立即考虑这种假设。中国的可能的作法是,以自己的方式,在美国已经放弃梦想的领域谋取主导权。

  第二炮兵工程部队官兵深山行军。韩一杭摄

  解放军国之重器藏原始山林 大山内部被挖空

  这是记者见过最特别的一张中国地图,没有星罗棋布的省市乡镇,也不见纵横交错的山川道路,一个个经纬坐标背后,潜藏着托举长剑问天的导弹阵地。

  我们现在所处位置,就是这份地图上的某一个坐标。环顾四周,群山连绵,我们跟随第二炮兵某工程设计所某野外作业组,噼开密密麻麻的灌木和齐腰深的杂草,深一脚浅一脚地前行。刚入初冬,山风已经寒意逼人,刮在脸上如刀割一般。

  第二炮兵某工程设计所,是我军战略导弹部队的“工程设计师”。此番深山莽林之行,是为新建导弹阵地踏勘地形,换句话说,就是为神剑选“巢”。导弹,只 有和阵地结合起来,才算真正意义上傲啸九天的大国长剑。阵地工程建设,勘察设计是龙头,直接影响阵地的功能质量和生存防护能力。 一路艰难跋涉,记者发现这支由博士硕士组成的队伍里,每个人都善走山路,就连几名鬓染白霜的老专家,翻山越岭也如履平地。细想之下,也不为奇,作为导弹筑 巢人,转战群山对他们而言,已是一种常态化生活。

  记者曾翻看过他们的科研日志,几乎每一页都写于深山戈壁、莽林雪野。他们每一个人身上,都有一串串的故事和奇遇:踩到野猪夹子,遭遇泥石流,数九寒天摔进冰河,被困荒山几天几夜……

  进到预定点位,大家忙碌起来,岩心钻开足马力钻向大山腹地。定位、测距、钻岩、取样……“为导弹选一个‘巢’,比找一个称心的对象还难!”该所总工程 师谭可可说,山体高度、形状、地质情况以及周边环境,都必须满足很多严格甚至是苛刻的条件,需要勘察设计人员反复量测、整体衡量。

  突然,空中响起轰鸣声,仰头一看,一架小型飞行器缓缓升空,对大山进行低空扫描和拍摄。随着飞行器获取数据的导入,一幅三维地形图在笔记本电脑上快速生成。记者了解到,将更多信息化技术引入阵地工程勘察设计,是新一代“阵地设计师”们的执着追求。

  勘察地图上,慢慢勾画出各种标线、公式、画图……一个个精确数据,将这片人迹罕至的原始山林,转化为战略视野里的“导弹地理”,成为决策部门论证报告上的可靠数据支撑。

  看着一个个紧张忙碌的身影,一张张神情专注的面孔,记者耳边回荡起该所所长陈朝东不无自豪的话语:半个世纪以来,我们完成的设计图纸,面积可以覆盖北 京城。这浩如烟海的设计图上,每一个经纬坐标,都是“阵地设计师”们,像这样燕子垒巢般一点一点踏勘丈量得来。难以想像,其中渗透多少血汗艰辛,多少牺牲 奉献……

  神剑飞天惊天地,有赖俯首筑巢人。该所政委汪利平告诉记者,几十年来,一代代“工程设计师”在国防工程通用化、信息化等领域取得重大突破,在阵地多元化设计、伪装设计上创造了许多创新理念,先后获得军队优秀设计奖6项、军队优质工程奖5项、军队科技进步奖19项。

  天色渐暗,我们在山腰上架起帐篷宿营。几位工程师顾不得吃晚饭,忙着将白天采集的地球物理勘探、围岩量测、地质预报等数据录入地质勘察信息数据库。月下营帐,官兵们唱起他们最爱的《设计者之歌》——

  千条江河布阵,万里云山为棋,为了钢浇铁铸的阵地,我们穿行在祖国的崇山峻岭,不畏山高路险,不畏酷暑严寒,精心勘察,缜密思考,无声的誓言写在导弹阵地……

话题:美媒:汶川地震让中国失去大量核武器![查看原文]

万维读者:kodobaby  评论日期:2012-02-07 01:18:14
美媒一会说中国有3000枚核弹头,一会说只有30枚,一会有说地震让中国损失大量核武。其实美媒最终的目的就是套话,希望从各种角度的言论引出中国政府的微妙回应,从而刺探中国核弹头真实数目。

但中国政府从来都是没有丝毫回应。呵呵。

 



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