全球变化- 杨学祥工作室分享 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/杨学祥 吉林大学地球探测科学与技术学院退休教授,从事全球变化研究。

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流感大流行预警:2008年可能发生流感大流行(重发)

已有 3660 次阅读 2009-4-29 17:39 |个人分类:科普文章|系统分类:科普集锦|关键词:猪流感,北美流感,预警,拉马德雷,流感大流行| 流感大流行, 预警, 拉马德雷, 猪流感, 北美流感


Upgrade influenza pandemic warning: possible pandemic next year 流感大流行预警:2008年可能发生流感大流行
发表人:yxx119  发表时间:2008年1月27日14点57分  来源:View Single Post

Upgrade influenza pandemic warning: possible pandemic next year
流感大流行预警:2008年可能发生流感大流行

saw this at PFI, credit: Rickk. This is a scientific forum quoting China TV story about the 6 climatic conditions that lead some to predict that 2008 will have favorable conditions for a pandemic.
这是一个引自中国电视故事有关六个气候特征的科学论坛,它预测2008年将有流感的有利条件。
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Side track a little.

I then searched CCTV.com and found a Chinese (Mandarin) documentary about the Spanish Flu, a discussion about all kinds of viruses, and vaccines. To my surprise, there were historical records and medical books dating back to the 11th century of making a vaccine for small pox. They took the fluid (pus?) from small pox inflicted patients and let it dry, then grind it into powdery form and blow it into nostrils of the uninfected using a small bamboo pipe!
我搜索CCTV.com,发现有关西班牙流感的中国(官方)文件,讨论各种病毒和疫苗。出乎意料,有史料记载和医学书籍可远溯至11世纪的制造一种疫苗,天花。他们从病人的天花中取出液(脓?),并把它烘干,然后研磨成粉状的形式,利用小竹管把它吹在被感染的鼻孔。

What I found interesting was that they broadcasted this lengthy documentary, possibly for public education about the threats of a pandemic, as well as all kinds of viral diseases - they said every year one or two new animal based viral diseases are discovered, that we have to live with this threat.
我发现有趣的是,他们播出的这个漫长的纪录片,可能是为有关流感威胁的公众教育,以及各种病毒性传染病-他们说每年都有一,两个新的基于动物病毒性疾病被发现,我们生活在这一威胁中。
http://translate.google.com/transla...n&hl=en&ie=UTF8

Back to main story:

Google translation below:

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&langpair=zh-CN|en&u=http://www.sciencenet.cn/bbs/ShowPost.aspx%3Fid%3D5185&prev=/translate_s%3Fhl%3Den%26q%3Dbird%2Bflu%2B2008%2Bja n%26tq%3D%25E7%25A6%25BD%25E6%25B5%2581%25E6%2584% 259F2008%25E5%25B9%25B41%25E6%259C%2588%26sl%3Den% 26tl%3Dzh-CN%26start%3D20

Upgrade influenza pandemic warning: possible pandemic next year

杨学祥,杨冬红 Yang Xuexiang, Yang Donghong

中新网 -- 12 月 22 日 December 22 电据中央电视台消息,气象学家们根据目前的观测预言, 2008 年极有可能发生大流感。 -- According to CCTV news, meteorologists have predicted that under the current observation, 2008 is very possible pandemic. 消息称,对于 1890 年到 2004 年天气数据的研究,可以观察到流感大流行年份的六个气候特征。 According to reports, the 1890 to 2004 study weather data can be observed that the influenza pandemic of the six years of climate characteristics. 气象学家们根据目前的观测预言, 2008 年极有可能发生大流感。 Meteorologists have predicted that under the current observation, 2008 is very possible pandemic. 而医学家们则从流行病学的角度提出了同样的警告。 Epidemiological and medical scientist who from the standpoint of the same warning. 从 2003 年至今,流感大流行的潜在风险越来越高。 From 2003 to date, the potential influenza pandemic risk getting higher and higher. 尤其是禽流感不仅每年出现,在全球还有扩大的趋势。 Especially the bird flu not only every year, and expand the global trend. 2008 年,爆发流感的可能正在迫近。 2008, the outbreak of influenza may be looming. 消息说,世界卫生组织已经公布了 2007 年到 2008 年针对北半球推荐的三大流感毒株,各国也因此准备了有针对性的疫苗和抗病毒药物,这就可能在流感真正到来时 ,控制住疾病的流行和扩散 1] 。 News that the World Health Organization has published the 2007 to 2008 for the northern hemisphere influenza strains recommended by the three countries also prepared a targeted vaccines and antiviral drugs, which may be the advent of true influenza, control the prevalence and spread of the disease 1].

中新网联合国 United Nations -- 12 月 21 日 December 21 电世界卫生组织星期五 (21 日 ) 表示,尽管禽流感病毒在人与人之间传播的情况仍属罕见,但目前尚不能排除近来巴基斯坦出现的禽流感病例是由 人与人之间传播所致。 Friday, the World Health Organization (21) said that although bird flu virus spread from person to person in the situation is still rare, but still can not rule out the recent Pakistan by the bird flu spread from person to person by the to. 据联合国网站报道,巴基斯坦白沙瓦地区首次发现 8 例疑似人类感染禽流感病例,其中两例死亡。 According to the United Nations web site, the first time in Peshawar, Pakistan found eight cases of suspected human bird flu cases, two of which were fatal. 巴基斯坦国家实验室对患者血液样本进行了检测并发现了禽流感病毒。 Pakistan National Laboratory on the patients blood samples were tested and the discovery of the bird flu virus. 世卫组织表示,巴基斯坦此后没有出现新的病例,目前世卫组织正在调查已发现病例的感染途径。 WHO said that Pakistan since there were no new cases, WHO is currently investigating cases of infection have been found ways. 世卫组织指出,只要 H5N1 禽流感病毒仍然在世界上传播,就不能排除这种病毒发生变异和重组进而导致大流行性流感的可能性 。 WHO pointed out that, as long as the H5N1 avian influenza virus is still spread in the world, we can not rule out the possibility that the virus mutates and restructuring leading to the possibility of an influenza pandemic. 由于缺乏足够的信息,目前无法断定这样的风险有多大。 Due to the lack of sufficient information is not possible to determine how such risks. 大流行性流感一般由一种能够使人类致病的新流感病毒所引发。 Pandemic Influenza generally enable a new human disease caused by influenza virus. 由于人类的免疫系统对其不具备预存免疫性,感染和患病率远高于普通的季节性流感。 Because the human immune system does not have stored their immunity, infection and the prevalence rate much higher than the ordinary seasonal flu. 专家认为, H5N1 禽流感病毒是一种具有大流行潜力的毒株。 Experts believe that the H5N1 avian flu virus is a kind of potential pandemic strains. 目前全球存储了 1 亿 5000 万剂流感疫苗,以备全球大流感爆发时之需 [2] 。 The current global store 100 million 50 million influenza vaccine to prepare for a worldwide influenza outbreak needs [2].

综合 1890-2004 年的数据,我们可以得到流感大流行的 6 大气候特征:处于拉马德雷冷位相时期及其边界;前一年或前两年为中等强度以上的拉尼娜年; 20 世纪 50-70 年代同时为中国强沙尘暴年;前后一年或当年为中国东北地区冷夏年( 20 世纪 50-70 年代同时为严重低温冷害年);当年为中等强度以上的厄尔尼诺年;当年为太阳黑子谷年 m 或峰年 M , m-1 年, m+1 年或 M+1 年。 Comprehensive 1890-2004, data, we can get influenza pandemic climate of the six characteristics: Madre in the cold period and the phase boundary; the previous year or two years ago for the moderate-intensity above La Nina years; 20th century 50-70 At the same time as China´s strong sandstorm; year or the year before and after China´s northeast cold summer (50-70 in the 20th century at the same time as serious chilling damage); that moderate intensity for more than El Nino years; for the year sunspot Valley, m or the M-, m-1, m +1, or M +1. 1889-1890 年、 1900 年、 1918-1919 年、 1957-1958 年、 1968-1969 年和 1977 年的禽流感爆发都满足这 6 大条件,同时,在 1890 年以来,满足这 6 大条件的只有以上 6 次爆发 [3-6] 。 1889-1890, 1900, 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1969, 1977 and the outbreak of avian flu have met six conditions at the same time, in 1890, met only six conditions more than six times the outbreak of [3-6]. 第 7 大特征是当年为冬季或夏季强潮汐南北震荡持续天数异常年。 7 feature is that for the winter or summer North-South concussion sustained strong tidal anomalies in a few days. 后三次流感世界爆发都满足这一特征。 Third World after the outbreak of influenza are to meet this feature. 现在,至少在 20 世纪 50-70 年代,我们发现了禽流感爆发与沙尘暴高峰的一一对应关系。 Now, in the 20th century, at least 50-70 years, we found that the outbreak of avian flu and sandstorms peak of one-to-one relationship. 1900 年的流感爆发,因为偏离标准较远,因而也较弱 [6] 。 1900 outbreaks of influenza, because any deviation from the standard distance, and thus the weaker [6].

2006 、 2008 、 2011 、 2015 、 2018-2019 年是可能的厄尔尼诺年, 2007 年、 2013-2014 年、 2016-2017 年是可能的拉尼娜年。 2006, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2018-2019, it is possible to El Nino years, 2007, 2013, 2016-2017, it is possible to La Nina years. 加强这些年份的地震和禽流感的防范和监测非常重要。 Strengthen these years of earthquakes and avian flu prevention and monitoring is very important. 如果 2007 年是太阳黑子谷年 m , 2007 年预测为拉尼娜年, 2008 年则是 m+1 年,预测为厄尔尼诺年 [7] , 2008 年为夏季强潮汐南北震荡持续天数异常年( 44 天),在拉马德雷冷位相时期的厄尔尼诺年( 2000-2030 年内)和太阳黑子极值年易发生低温冷害。 If 2007 is the sunspot Valley, m, 2007 is forecast to La Nina, the 2008 m +1, it is forecast to El Nino, [7], for the summer 2008 North-South concussion sustained strong tidal anomalies in the number of days (44 days) , in the Madre cold phase of El Nino period (2000-2030 years) and the sunspot extreme cold damage-prone. 这样, 2008 年就具有较高的概率发生流感爆发。 Thus, in 2008 the higher the probability of an influenza outbreak. 2006-2008 年是否是强拉尼娜与强厄尔尼诺相互转换是禽流感是否爆发的关键。 2006-2008 is a strong El Nino, La Nina and strong mutual conversion is the outbreak of avian flu is crucial. 2007 年的拉尼娜现象及其伴随的强沙尘暴,为 2007-2008 年的禽流感孕育和爆发增大了发生几率 [6] 。 2007 accompanied by the La Nina phenomenon and the strong sandstorm, the 2007-2008 outbreak of the avian flu bred and increased incidence of [6]. 2007 年 2-6 月为强潮汐时期,预计弱厄尔尼诺将结束,强拉尼娜将发生。 2007 February-June period for the strong tides expected weak El Nino will come to an end, the strong La Nina will occur. 德雷克海峡的海冰增多是拉尼娜现象的前兆,拉马德雷冷位相的强拉尼娜是流感爆发的前兆 [8] 。 Drake Passage of sea ice is more of the La Nina phenomenon omen Madre strong La Nina cold phase of the influenza outbreak of precursor [8].

2007 年 8 月拉尼娜事件已经发生,预防流感大流行迫在眉睫 [9] 。 August 2007 La Nina events have already occurred, the prevention of influenza pandemic imminent [9]. 中国新闻界对流感流行预警升级的报道表明中国科技报道实力的增强。 China influenza pandemic alert the press for the upgrading of the reports indicate that China´s scientific and technological strength reports. 中国科技新闻应该走出国门,面向全世界。 China´s scientific and technological information should go out of the country, facing the whole world.

参考文献 References

1. 1. 责任编辑:陈国栋。 Editor: Chen Guodong. 流感流行预警升级世卫组织公布三大流感毒株。 AWACS upgrade influenza pandemic, WHO announced three flu strains. 搜狐网。 Sohu network. 2007 年 12 月 22 日 December 22, 2007 06:14 来源:中国新闻网。 6:14 Source: China News Network. http://news.sohu.com/20071222/n254235759.shtml Http://news.sohu.com/20071222/n254235759.shtml
2. 2. 世卫称巴基斯坦禽流感不排除人际传播。 WHO said Pakistan does not rule out the possibility of avian flu transmitted from person to person. 2007 年 12 月 22 日 December 22, 2007 08:24 中国新闻网。 0824 China News Network. http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2007-12-2...13125122s.shtml Http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2007-12-2...13125122s.shtml
3. 3. 杨冬红,杨学祥,刘财。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang, Mr Choi. 2004 年 12 月 26 日 December 26, 2004 印尼地震海啸与全球低温 [J] 。 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami and global low temperature [J]. 地球物理学进展。 Geophysics progress. 2006 , 21 ( 3 ): 1023-1027 2006, 21 (3): 1023-1027
4. 4. 杨冬红,杨学祥。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang. “拉马德雷”冷位相时期的全球强震和灾害。 "Madre" during the cold phase of global earthquake and disaster. 西北地震学报。 Journal of the Northwest earthquake. 2006 , 28 ( 1 ): 95-96 2006, 28 (1): 95-96
5. 5. 杨学祥,杨冬红。 Yang Xuexiang, Yang Dong Hung. “太平洋十年涛动”冷位相时期的全球飓风等灾害。 "Pacific Decade Oscillation" during the cold phase of global disasters such as hurricanes. 海洋预报。 Marine forecasting. 2006 , 23 ( 3 ): 30-35 2006, 23 (3): 30-35
6. 6. 杨冬红,杨学祥。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang. 流感世界大流行的气候特征。 World influenza pandemic climatic characteristics. 沙漠与绿洲气象。 Desert Oasis and weather. 2007 , 1 ( 3 ): 1-8 。 2007, 1 (3): 1-8. 2007 年 8 月 22 日 August 22, 2007 发表,可查网址: http://qxg.com.cn/n/?fc=nd&cid=43&nid=14661 Published, available on the Web site: http://qxg.com.cn/n/?fc=nd&cid=43&nid=14661
7. 7. 杨学祥 . 厄尔尼诺事件产生的原因与验证 . 自然杂志. 2004 , 26 ( 3 ) : 151 - 155 Yang Xuexiang. El Nino events and verification of the cause. Nature magazine. 2004, 26 (3): 151 – 155
8. 8. 杨冬红,杨学祥。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang. 澳大利亚夏季大雪与南极海冰三个气候开关。 Australia and the Antarctic summer sea ice snow three climatic switch. 地球物理学进展。 Geophysics progress. 2007 , 22 ( 5 ): 1680-1685 。 2007, 22 (5): 1680-1685.
9. 9. 杨学祥 . 中等强度的拉尼娜事件已初步形成:流感爆发还会远吗? Yang Xuexiang. Medium intensity of the incident has initially formed La Nina: influenza outbreak be far behind? 2007-09-24 2007-09-24 光明观察 . 学术?新知。 Bright observation. Academic Awakening. http://guancha.gmw.cn/content/2007-...tent_675621.htm Http://guancha.gmw.cn/content/2007-...tent_675621.htm

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