(For new reader and those who request 好友请求, please read my 公告栏 first) 

For anyone who reads newspaper or magazine articles these days in the US  (and by reflection also in China) the issue of US-China economic competition cannot possibly escape  ones attention. Doomsayers predict unavoidable future conflicts and even war. My own view is that “This is unreal. We don’t have to lose sleep  over it” Why?

1. The decline of the US while real is slow. I don’t foresee a spectacular  collapse. But structurally the decline is almost unavoidable  (see http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/crisis-middle-class-and-american-power?utm_source=freelist-f).  Technology may provide some rejuvenation such as the Internet in the 1990s. But unless the educational level of the population keeps  up (and the US are deficient on this score compare to the rest of the  world ), the saving gracewill only be temporary. Other nations will catch up quickly since technology does not respect national boundaries.

2. On the other side of the Pacific,China will have its hands full with serious internal problems of demography,population, energy  sufficiency, pollution, and rising economic inequality and aspirations. None of these problems can be solved overnight and each single one will occupy the best minds of the leaders for the next one or two generations.

3. Everyone knows the interconnectedness of the US and China economy  (unlike  the situation between US and USSR during the Cold War) . Any serious conflict has unwelcomed consequences on both sides.

4. The only real beneficiary in the event of a US-China conflict will be Japan who for historical and cultural reasons do not mind to see this happen. I trust neither China nor the US will be dumb enough to fall into this trap.

5. On the other hand, the US and China geographically and historically  are  natural allies. When western powers as well as Japan invaded China, US is the only country that did not ask for exterritorial rights and concessions. Chinese students and immigrants always choose the US as the first choice of place to study and emigrate. Despite the history of 1950-1978, as soon as China opened  up, the good will of the Chinese people toward the US resurged  again. Each country has separate sphere of influence on the  globe. Of course, it is hard for the US who has been dominant to cede some power and influence in the Far East. But this is only as things should be. No one said the US can borrow and  consume her way to remain the only superpower in the world.

6. Finally, selfishly, I am at an age where I see the current status  quo will be maintained in my lifetime. Thus, why we worry?

Thus, for the people of both countries, my conclusion is this.  For the US, concentrate on solving her internal structural and educational problems and hope skilled immigration continue. This requires thinking about our changing core values (as pointed out in the above reference) and work hard to correct and achieve it. Stop worrying about competition from China. Sure, any nation, 1^st or2^nd in GNP, deserves to have influence on the world stage. But as listed above, China has serious internal  problems  of her own and, in my opinion, won’t have much time and energy to  expand their power  outside of her own borders. For China, she should really  worry about the serious internalproblems facing the country. Sure, your GDP may soon  surpass that of the US but your per capita income won’t for a long time .  But if you just wait patiently, the US will probably decline under the present trajectory  without any effort from you. And if you manage to solve your internal  problems, you will be number one regardless.  Europe and the rest of the world do not matter.

Note added 1/5/2014: As counterpoint to the reference under #1, see also http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/01/why-chinas-global-supremacy-is-not-inevitable/282785/ for an analysis of China's problems. (thanks to my adult son for this reference)