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And things are only likely to get worse for China. Because of the one-child policy, China will soon suffer the most severe aging process in human history. The ratio of Chinese workers per retiree will plummet from 8:1 today to 2:1 by 2040. The fiscal cost of this swing in dependency ratios alone may exceed 100 percent of China’s GDP. The American working-age population, by contrast, will expand by 17 percent over the next 40 years. America’s fiscal future may not be bright, but it is brighter than China’s.
【翻译:——对中国而言还有雪上加霜的一条。由于一胎化政策,中国很快就要承受人类历史上最严重的老龄化过程。中国劳动人员和退休人员的比例将从现在的8比1暴跌到2040年的2比1。仅仅这种抚养比的变化,就可能使得财政成本超过中国100%的GDP。相比之下,美国未来40年的劳动人口会增加17%(译注:美国的比例到2040年是2.68比1,见美国国会报告CRS-15页)。美国财政的未来可能并不光明,但是比中国的光明。】
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