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The US Presidential Marathon has ended!

已有 5921 次阅读 2016-11-9 16:18 |个人分类:生活点滴|系统分类:海外观察

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And all the polls, the media, the political pundits,the usual rules and tradition, and  finally , but least importantly, half of the prediction I made 11months ago  were WRONG. Trump will be the next US president as he ended his victory speech on Nov.9, 2016 at 3:06 am.


Note added at 7:26 am 11/9/2016: As an applied mathematician, my question is this: "With all the advances in statistics and modeling, how did all the polls get the result wrong?"

Explanation offered after some thought at 9:25 am: While every scientific poll supposedly are accomplanied with a range of possible errors, it is highly improbable that 90+% of the polls all erred in the same direction. But polling is a competitive and expensive business. People pay to use your polling results. Thus my darker explanation is that because of competition and cost, people took unscientific shortcuts (e.g. borrowing model and data used by others instead developing your own) with data and model which resulting in errors biased the same way.



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