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[转载]2018美国数学建模MCM E题 翻译 气候变化如何影响地区不稳定

已有 11235 次阅读 2018-2-9 12:02 |系统分类:博客资讯|文章来源:转载

PROBLEM E: How does climate change influence regional instability?

The effects of Climate Change, to include increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing animal and plant ranges, and sea level rise, are already being realized and vary from region to region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant. Many of these effects will alter the way humans live, and may have the potential to cause the weakening and breakdown of social and governmental structures. Consequently, destabilized governments could result in fragile states.

A fragile state is one where the state government is not able to, or chooses not to, provide the basic essentials to its people. For the purpose of this problem “state” refers to a sovereign state or country. Being a fragile state increases the vulnerability of a country’s population to the impact of such climate shocks as natural disasters, decreasing arable land, unpredictable weather, and increasing temperatures. Non-sustainable environmental practices, migration, and resource shortages, which are common in developing states, may further aggravate states with weak governance (Schwartz and Randall, 2003; Theisen, Gleditsch, and Buhaug, 2013). Arguably, drought in both Syria and Yemen further exacerbated already fragile states. Environmental stress alone does not necessarily trigger violent conflict, but evidence suggests that it enables violent conflict when it combines with weak governance and social fragmentation. This confluence can enhance a spiral of violence, typically along latent ethnic and political divisions (Krakowka, Heimel, and Galgano 2012).

Your tasks are the following:

Task 1: Develop a model that determines a country’s fragility and simultaneously measures the impact of climate change. Your model should identify when a state is fragile, vulnerable, or stable. It should also identify how climate change increases fragility through direct means or indirectly as it influences other factors and indicators.

Task 2: Select one of the top 10 most fragile states as determined by the Fragile State Index (http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/data/) and determine how climate change may have increased fragility of that country. Use your model to show in what way(s) the state may be less fragile without these effects.

Task 3: Use your model on another state not in the top 10 list to measure its fragility, and see in what way and when climate change may push it to become more fragile. Identify any definitive indicators. How do you define a tipping point and predict when a country may reach it?

Task 4: Use your model to show which state driven interventions could mitigate the risk of climate change and prevent a country from becoming a fragile state. Explain the effect of human intervention and predict the total cost of intervention for this country.

Task 5: Will your model work on smaller “states” (such as cities) or larger “states” (such as continents)? If not, how would you modify your model?

Your submission should consist of:

 One-page Summary Sheet,

 Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 21 pages with your summary.

 Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 21-page limit and should appear after your completed solution.

References:

Krakowka, A.R., Heimel, N., and Galgano, F. “Modeling Environmenal Security in Sub-Sharan Africa – ProQuest.” The Geographical Bulletin, 2012, 53 (1): 21-38.

Schwartz, P. and Randall, D. “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security”, October 2003. http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf

Theisen, O.M., Gleditsch, N.P., and Buhaug, H. “Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?” Climate Change, April 2013, V117 (3), 613-625.

Helpful Links:

Fragile States Index: http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/

The World Bank:

http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/harmonized-list-of-fragile-situations

问题E:气候变化如何影响地区不稳定?

气候变化的影响,包括不断增加的干旱、冰川的缩小、动植物的变化以及海平面的上升,这些都已经得到了实现,并随着地区的变化而变化。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change)表示,气候变化的净损害成本可能是显著的。这些影响将会改变人类的生活方式,可能会导致社会和政府结构的弱化和瓦解。因此,不稳定的政府可能导致脆弱的国家。

一个脆弱的国家是政府不能或不愿意为其人民提供基本生活必需品的国家。为了这个问题的目的,“国家”指的是主权国家或国家。作为一个脆弱的国家,一个国家的人口受到诸如自然灾害、耕地减少、天气变化无常和气温上升等气候冲击的影响。在发展中国家普遍存在的不可持续的环境实践、移徙和资源短缺,可能会使治理薄弱的国家进一步恶化(施瓦茨和兰道尔,2003;Theisen, Gleditsch,和Buhaug, 2013)。可以说,叙利亚和也门的干旱进一步加剧了本已脆弱的国家。环境压力本身并不一定会引发暴力冲突,但有证据表明,当它与薄弱的治理和社会分裂相结合时,就会引发暴力冲突。这种融合可以加剧暴力的螺旋上升,通常是潜伏的种族和政治分歧(Krakowka, Heimel,和Galgano 2012)。

你的任务如下:

任务1:建立一个模型来决定一个国家的脆弱性,同时衡量气候变化的影响。您的模型应该识别一个状态是脆弱的、脆弱的还是稳定的。它还应确定气候变化如何通过直接或间接的方式增加脆弱性,因为它影响其他因素和指标。

任务2:选择一个确定的十大最脆弱国家脆弱状态指数(http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/data/)和确定气候变化可能会增加国家的脆弱性。用你的模型来展示,如果没有这些影响,国家可能会变得不那么脆弱。

任务3:把你的模型用在另一个国家,而不是排名前十的国家,来衡量它的脆弱性,看看气候变化会在什么程度上和什么时候推动它变得更加脆弱。识别出任何明确的指标。你如何定义一个转折点,并预测一个国家何时能达到这个临界点?

任务4:用你的模型展示哪些国家驱动的干预措施可以减轻气候变化的风险,防止一个国家变成一个脆弱的国家。解释人为干预的影响,并预测这个国家干预的总成本。

任务5:您的模型是否适用于较小的(如城市)或更大的(比如大陆)?如果没有,您将如何修改您的模型?

你的提交应包括:

单页汇总表,

您的解决方案不超过20页,最多21页与您的总结。

注意:参考列表和任何附录不计入21页的限制,并且应该在完成解决方案之后出现。

参考文献:

Krakowka, A.R., Heimel, N.,and Galgano, F. “Modeling Environmenal Security in Sub-Sharan Africa –ProQuest.” The Geographical Bulletin, 2012, 53 (1): 21-38.

Schwartz, P. and Randall, D.“An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United StatesNational Security”, October 2003.http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf

Theisen, O.M., Gleditsch,N.P., and Buhaug, H. “Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?”

Climate Change, April 2013,V117 (3), 613-625.

有助链接:

Fragile States Index:http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/

The World Bank:http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/harmonized-list-of-fragile-situations



您的ICM提交应包含1页的摘要表,您的解决方案不能超过20页,最多22页。注意:附录和参考文献不计入20页的限制。


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