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关于风险的理解

已有 5064 次阅读 2017-11-10 11:25 |个人分类:1|系统分类:科研笔记| 理解, 关键词:风险, 45001

关于风险的理解

为了使风险这个事情十分具体,必须这样理解。

理解的前提条件:

事故可能的原因事故本身事故的后果都理解为事件event

事故可能的原因就是危险源hazard

Hazard的实质也是事件event

风险是危险源hazard 或者事件event的风险。

理解风险:

危险源的危险程度,是事故发生的可能性与后果严重性的组合。

参看45001draft)的定义:

Riskeffect of uncertainty

Note 1 to entry: An effect is a deviation from theexpected — positive or negative.

Note 2 to entry: Uncertainty is the state, evenpartial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence,or likelihood.

Note 3 to entry: Risk is often characterized byreference to potential "events" (as definedin ISO Guide 73:2009,3.5.1.3) and "consequences" (as defined in ISOGuide 73:2009, 3.6.1.3), or a combination of these.

Note 4 to entry: Risk is often expressed in terms ofa combination of the consequences ofan event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated"likelihood" (as defined in ISO Guide 73:2009, 3.6.1.1) ofoccurrence.

脱离危险源 hazard,就无从谈起风险。

如果再理解一下ISO Guide73:2009Risk management-Vocabulary就更有意思了:

我只摘录了几句,读者可自己浏览:

Hazard can be a risk source(识别风险就要先识别危险源,再计算、分析得到其风险值,也就是说风险是危险源的风险)

Hazard issource of potential harm(危险源本身就有隐藏、隐患的意思,也就是隐患)

A risk source can be tangible or intangible(只识别物理危险源只是危险源的九牛之一毛。).

关键词:风险,理解 45001



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