Identify Study of Earthquake Prediction & Volcano Prediction

已有 2869 次阅读 2011-3-16 18:45 |系统分类:科研笔记| office, style, earthquake, Seismic, Volcano


Identify Study of Earthquake Prediction & Volcano Prediction

Lijun Chen


The global earthquake focal depth data beturn 1963 to 2010 shows, the focal depth of more than 630 km is only 6 places such as Chile, Okhotsk Sea, Philippines, Indonesia, Solomon and Tonga. Focal depth is between 550 km to 630 km only 4 places such as Jappen sea, Marianas trench, Jilin in China and west exit of Mediterranean. Maximum focal depth is between 250 km to 380 km only 7 places such as Guatemala, Haiti,Bering sea, Taiwan and Ryukyu Hindukush, Mediterranean and South Sandwich Trench. Also the maximum focal depth is between 180 km to 250 km in Burma. All add up to 18 centers or strips of deep source seismic activity. The upper seismic activity Of these centers just like a tree or a fanlike arrangement, and stretches open along the island arcs or trenchs nearby the surface. The author has defined these special point as seismic mantle plume (see, top 10 may be defined as super seismic mantle plume.

According to the Seismic Geothermics(Chen Lijun, 2000, Seismology and Geology), the earthquake at bottom of seismic mantle plume just like a "engine", constitute the active layer of certain depth mantle by way of rapid migration of heat energy or of critical boiling of mantle material. Mid-depth source earthquake release does not dissipate, can only transfer to upper mantle layer, i.e energy-storage layer. Energy storage layer will be stored energy or transfer upward step by step with gradual release. Arrived near surface, the earth's crust dissipative layer will be spread, and the releases of stored bottom energy will be accured by way of volcanic eruption, or by way of rupture, dislocation or plastic deformation, etc, along the existing fragile generated structures, and will be dissipated exhaustedly with the energy form change of heat energy into mainly mechanical energy.

A simple boiled water testing can be roughly simulated the working mechanism of seismic mantle plume. A beaker of water placed above plane heat source. When temperature is appropriate, the bubbles appear and burst immediately on the cup bottom. With increased water temperatures the bubbles rise and burst ceaselessly, the water surface is gradually deformation. When bubbles can raise close to the water surface,it is into "Xiangshui doesn't boil" stage, and then is boiled. Earthquake prediction and volcano prediction is looking for the timing of "Xiangshui doesn't boil".

Indonesia is an ideal place of earthquake prediction and volcano prediction research duto its earthquake frequent and volcanic activity. Statistical of relationship of crust earthquakes and volcanos with mid-depth source earthquakes in Indonesia, found below phenomenon:

1) By the statistics of 70 volcanic eruptions of index VEI = 1 and above since 2000 in Indonesia, there were many earthquakes magnitude 5 and above almost every volcano eruption in or before 1 ~ 3 months(table amited, to see the blog of Seisman);

2) When appear a series of deep source seismic activity magnitude 5 and above does to trigger the eruptions of one or more volcanos (Example Table 1);

3) If deep earthquake magnitude 7 and above accured it could trigger volcanic eruption and strong crust earthquake magnitude 8 and above (Table 2).

In the Seismo-geothermics, volcano and mid-depth source earthquake is homologous. The volcano is heat release rushed to the surface, and the mid-depth source earthquake is heat transfer but do not reach the surface.

In this sense, the relationship study of volcano and mid-depth source earthquake may be able to find new ways of the volcano prediction and earthquake prediction.

Hereby thanks to page web  for ANSS earthquake catalogue, and to page web  for GVP monthly volcanic Bulletin.

The 2d draft, 2011.3.16


Table 1



Erupution Starte Date

Mid-depth Earthquakes





2008 03 24

200801092.52°128.56°5.3229 km

200801201.79°126.72°5.1055 km

20080123-2.83°101.22°5.0050 km

20080124-0.11°124.00°5.0107 km

20080130-0.16°125.08°5.570 km

20080203-8.20°119.86°5.0191 km

200802061.91°127.05°5.079 km

20080207-7.58°116.81°5.7321 km

20080217-7.58°127.66°5.3121 km

20080226-0.60°122.23°5.066 km

20080226-7.04°129.68°5.0105 km

200803062.57°128.23°5.9125 km

200803081.74°127.02°5.283 km

200803101.48°126.37°5.054 km

200803131.71°126.64°5.364 km

20080316-6.31°130.42°5.0137 km

200803201.57°127.26°5.1104 km

200803281.85°128.47°5.167 km

200803300.11°98.24°5.249 km

20080331-2.85°101.17°5.150 km

200804011.55°126.30°5.352 km

20080402-4.34°102.71°5.767 km

20080402-0.15°99.19°5.381 km

20080402-7.04°129.20°5.7180 km

200804030.02°127.46°5.0153 km

20080410-6.42°129.99°5.0139 km

20080414-7.04°129.18°5.2150 km





2008 04 05





2008 04 15



Table  2

Deep Earthquake

Volcanic Eruption or Strong Crust Earthquake Magnitude 8 and Greater



-2.42°, 103.98°

M 7.3

H 582 km

Volcanic Eruption

20040805, Marapi, -0.381°, 100.473°, VEI2

20041001, Rinjani, -8.42°, 116.47°, VEI2

20041018, Soputan, 1.108°, 124.73°, VEI3?


200412260058, 3.29°, 95.98°, M 9.0, h 30 km

5 monthes before


-6.52°, 129.93°

M 7.1

H 201 km


200503281609, 2.08°, 97.10°, M 8.6, h 30 km

26 days before


-5.47°, 128.13°

M 7.6

H 397 km


-5.85, 107.41

M 7.5

H 280 km

Volcanic Eruption

20060506, Merapi, -7.542°, 110.442°, VEI1

20060703, Karangetang[ApiSiau],2.78°,125.40°1

20060910, Talang, -0.978°, 100.679°, VEI1

20060925, Dempo, -4.03°, 103.13°, VEI1

20061214, Soputan, 1.108°, 124.73°, VEI1

20070117(?), BatuTara, -7.792°,123.579°,VEI2

20070319, Talang, -0.978°, 100.679°, VEI2

200706(?), Soputan, 1.108°, 124.73°, VEI3

20070708, Gamkonora, 1.38°, 127.53°, VEI2

20070726, Raung, -8.125°, 114.042°, VEI2

20070909, Kerinci, -1.697°, 101.264°, VEI1


200709121110, -4.43°, 101.36°, M 8.4, h 34 km

200709122349, -2.62, 100.84, M 7.9, h 35 km

35 days before



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